By Paul Homewood

 

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gas-section-4-energy-trends

 

Following comments about gas imports into the UK, I thought I would take the opportunity to clarify the situation.

In 2016, the UK imported 534 TWh of natural gas, 59% of total supply. Provisional figures for 2017 suggest a similar position.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gas-section-4-energy-trends

 

The vast bulk of imports comes direct from Norway. Technically, Russian gas can only arrive via the Belgian and Dutch pipelines, which amount to 10% of total imports. It is estimated that 35% of Europe’s gas comes from Russia, so in theory about 3% of Britain’s gas comes from Russia.

			Imports
	From	From the	From	Liquefied	Total
	Belgium	Netherlands	Norway	Natural Gas	Imports
YEAR
2000	2,955	–	11,279	–	14,234
2001	4,015	–	12,734	–	16,749
2002	6,645	–	37,883	–	44,528
2003	4,387	–	71,755	–	76,142
2004	25,592	–	95,363	–	120,955
2005	24,108	–	127,894	5,453	157,455
2006	30,505	9,135	157,036	37,576	234,252
2007	6,471	76,602	225,764	14,903	323,741
2008	12,174	90,563	285,582	9,045	397,365
2009	7,945	69,529	274,833	112,238	464,544
2010	13,568	87,120	298,731	206,846	606,265
2011	4,032	69,001	249,643	274,794	597,469
2012	14,264	78,258	311,736	150,098	554,356
2013	35,367	81,519	318,634	102,620	538,140
2014	3,949	70,293	278,818	123,910	476,969
2015	2,116	35,933	307,943	152,406	498,398
2016	15,414	47,444	347,005	122,310	532,173
2017 p	29,428	20,766	393,417	79,128	522,739

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gas-section-4-energy-trends

 

 

As demand peaks in winter, imports from Belgium/Holland can rise sharply. In Q4 last year, they represented 19% of imports, and I would suspect that figure will rise in the quarter:

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gas-section-4-energy-trends

 

Although the main pipeline from Norway, from Langeled to Easington, is designed to pump gas direct to the UK, it does run through the Sleipner connector in the middle of the North Sea, which enables gas to be diverted through the network to continental Europe.

While supplies from Norway are protected by long term agreements, spikes in demand may not be fulfilled if demand from the continent also puts pressure on the supply.

 

Government projections say that consumption of natural gas will fall from 77 to 60 Mtoe by 2030:

 

 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2017

However, this ignores the fact that gas consumption has actually been rising in the last five years. Although this is mainly due to greater electricity generation from gas, consumption of gas in other sectors has not fallen in the last few years, which makes government projections look optimistic.

Either way, this may be one of the reasons the decision to close the Rough Storage facility was taken. Perhaps they believed the Met Office predictions of milder winters!

 

The real concern though is what happens as North Sea production continues to decline in years to come.

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

http://ift.tt/2Gwiinj

March 16, 2018 at 09:12AM