By Paul Homewood
From “Where do they get this crap Department”?
A new study, based on (you guessed it, climate models), reckons that the arid belt in the western US is moving east, threatening the corn belt in the Midwest:
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-04/teia-t1m041118.php
This is the study:
Abstract
The 100th meridian bisects the Great Plains of the United States and effectively divides the continent into more arid western and less arid eastern halves and is well expressed in terms of vegetation, land hydrology, crops, and the farm economy. Here, it is considered how this arid–humid divide will change in intensity and location during the current century under rising greenhouse gases. It is first shown that state-of-the-art climate models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project generally underestimate the degree of aridity of the United States and simulate an arid–humid divide that is too diffuse. These biases are traced to excessive precipitation and evapotranspiration and inadequate blocking of eastward moisture flux by the Pacific coastal ranges and Rockies. Bias-corrected future projections are developed that modify observationally based measures of aridity by the model-projected fractional changes in aridity. Aridity increases across the United States, and the aridity gradient weakens. The main contributor to the changes is rising potential evapotranspiration, while changes in precipitation working alone increase aridity across the southern and decrease across the northern United States. The “effective 100th meridian” moves to the east as the century progresses. In the current farm economy, farm size and percent of county under rangelands increase and percent of cropland under corn decreases as aridity increases. Statistical relations between these quantities and the bias-corrected aridity projections suggest that, all else being equal (which it will not be), adjustment to changing environmental conditions would cause farm size and rangeland area to increase across the plains and percent of cropland under corn to decrease in the northern plains as the century advances.
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/EI-D-17-0012.1
Does it ever occur to these fraudsters that we can check the actual data?
All the way up that 100th Meridian, the climate has grown wetter since the early 20thC. totally the opposite of what is claimed should be happening under a warmer climate.
How can such obviously fake science get through peer review?
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
April 18, 2018 at 04:51PM
Iowa Climate Science Education 