By Paul Homewood
The SNP often claim that renewable energy is helping to make Scotland energy independent, presumably to bolster the case for independence.
And it is certainly true that in 2016 Scotland supplied 9.6 TWh to England (net of receipts), 21% of total generation.
However, it has been running at this sort of level and higher since 2006, so wind power has little to do with the matter. Indeed, transfers have actually been dropping in recent years.
If we look at total generation, we see that it too has been dropping recently.
The closure of Longannet coal plant during 2016 is mainly responsible for this, and Scotland will lose another 1.8 TWh in 2017 as the full effect of closure takes effect.
This will be offset by an extra 5.2 TWh of wind power, which came on stream last year. But, with subsidies for onshore wind now being phased out, growth in renewables will slow down in the next five years.
More importantly though is what is happening to nuclear power in Scotland, which still accounted for 42.8% in 2016:
Hunterston B produces about half of this power, but, built in 1976, is due to close in 2025.
Whether it makes it that far is highly debatable. Currently one of its reactors is offline, after cracks in the core were found earlier in the year. Its owner, EDF, expects output to fall by 3 TWh this year as a result.
What this tells us about the longer term prospects is anybody’s guess. But Scotland won’t be able to make up this loss of output readily, as both of the nuclear plants, Hunterston B and Torness, were already running at close to capacity prior to this, as was the only major CCGT plant at Peterhead.
Although Scotland will remain a net supplier to the rest of the UK for years to come, the gradual erosion of reliable baseload will actually mean that Scotland itself will be ever more reliant on imported power from England.
FOOTNOTE
Interestingly, Wales is actually a much bigger exporter of electricity to England than Scotland is, which may come as a shock.
Wales exported 18.4 TWh to England in 2016, nearly double the Scottish figure of 9.6 TWh.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
May 6, 2018 at 12:00PM
Iowa Climate Science Education 
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