Month: June 2018

World’s first grid-scale liquid air energy storage plant goes live

Image credit: Highview Power

Is this just another way of making renewable energy even more expensive, or what? The claim is that this “is a great step forward in the creation of a truly decentralized energy system in the UK allowing end-users to balance the national electricity network at times of peak demand”. Cranking up the boilers at the power station is going out of fashion along with the power stations themselves, but the price is high due to subsidies, and security of electricity supply is uncertain.

The world’s first grid-scale liquid air energy storage plant officially launched today, reports PEI.

The 5MW/15MWh plant near Manchester in England will become the first operational demonstration of liquid air energy storage (LAES) technology at grid-scale.

Professor John Loughhead, Chief Scientific Adviser at the UK government’s Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, officially switched on the plant, which has been developed by energy storage company Highview Power in partnership with recycling and renewable energy firm Viridor.

Professor Loughhead said: “The deployment of smart, flexible technologies, such as energy storage, will help to ensure the UK has a secure, affordable and clean energy system now and in the future in keeping with the priorities within UK government’s Modern Industrial Strategy.”

LAES technology stores air as a liquid and then converts it back to a gas, involving an expansion process that releases stored energy, and this drives a turbine to generate electricity. In addition to providing energy storage, the LAES plant at Bury converts waste heat to power using heat from the onsite landfill gas engines.

Highview Power chief executive Gareth Brett said the plant “is the only large scale, true long-duration, locatable energy storage technology available today, at acceptable cost. The adoption of LAES technology is now underway, and discussions are progressing with utilities around the world who see the opportunity for LAES to support the transition to a low-carbon world.”

After the launch, demand response aggregator KiWi Power will be able to draw energy from the LAES plant to power about 5000 average-sized homes for around three hours. The plant will demonstrate how LAES can provide a number of reserve, grid balancing and regulation services.

Continued here.

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June 6, 2018 at 09:24AM

Cooling Ocean Air Temps

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Despite warming due to atmospheric trace gases being a racing certainty according to the IPCC and like-minded theorists, evidence of it is getting ever harder to find.

Science Matters

Presently sea surface temperatures (SST) are the best available indicator of heat content gained or lost from earth’s climate system.  Enthalpy is the thermodynamic term for total heat content in a system, and humidity differences in air parcels affect enthalpy.  Measuring water temperature directly avoids distorted impressions from air measurements.  In addition, ocean covers 71% of the planet surface and thus dominates surface temperature estimates.  Eventually we will likely have reliable means of recording water temperatures at depth.

Recently, Dr. Ole Humlum reported from his research that air temperatures lag 2-3 months behind changes in SST.  He also observed that changes in CO2 atmospheric concentrations lag behind SST by 11-12 months.  This latter point is addressed in a previous post Who to Blame for Rising CO2?

The May update to HadSST3 will appear later this month, but in the meantime we can look at lower troposphere temperatures (TLT) from UAHv6…

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June 6, 2018 at 08:54AM

The Neurobiology of Climate Change Denial

Much work has already been undertaken to establish the cognitive foundation for the irrationality of climate change denial. Of particular note are the studies undertaken by Lewandowsky, Kahneman, Shapiro and O’Conner, identifying the many cognitive biases that invalidate arguments put forward by those who profess scepticism in the face of the scientific evidence. However, it is not until recently that neuroscientists have turned their attention to the subject of climate change science denial in order to determine whether there are any fundamental neurological indicators that may be used as predictors of such pathological thinking strategies.

Of particular interest is a recent paper1,“The neurobiology of climate change denial”, by Dr Rodriguez Azuela et al, of the Positano Behavioural and Cognitive Research Unit. By revealing significant neural pathologies, the paper promises to throw new light on the puzzling irrationality that appears so intransigent to those who would strive to engage the public’s support for climate change mitigation. In Dr Azuela’s own words:

“We were interested to see how the pattern of neural activity differed between climate change deniers and those who accept the scientific consensus. In particular, we looked for differences whilst they considered the evidence put forward for anthropogenic climate change. For this purpose, subjects who had declared varying degrees of scepticism were confronted with images totemic of climate change evidence and were asked to offer their personal assessment whilst undergoing functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI).”

The fMRI images, which are basically snapshots of the brain in action, revealed notable differences between the deniers and those who accepted the scientific consensus. Dr Azuela:

“Whilst there were no deterministic differences between the groups, there were clear statistical variances that suggest a characteristic neuropathology. In the case of the deniers, counter to the normal pattern of activity, significantly activated regions included the left caudate, bilateral prefrontal cortex (PFC) and para-hippocampal gyri. Activations in the putamen and the globus pallidus were significant at p<0.005 (uncorrected), but no activation was found in the nucleus accumbens.”

To the layman, the significance of such variances is obscure. However, to the neuroscientist the coloured patterns on an fMRI are as revealing as any lie detector. As Dr Azuela explains:

“Curiosity levels modulate activation in such memory-related areas, so these results indicate a significantly reduced level of the curiosity one would normally associate with deferred judgment ideation.”

In other words, the deniers were simply unreceptive to the evidence presented and, instead, were activating brain regions associated with memory recall in order to entrench their preconceived ideas. These findings are in keeping with the psychologists’ concept of the availability heuristic, a cognitive bias in which new evidence is too readily rejected in favour of experiences that carry personal, emotional salience.

Such revelations should come as no surprise to those who have made it their business to study the logic employed by climate change deniers. However, other results were perhaps more surprising. Dr Azuela again:

“Of more concern, however, were the modulations of activity found within the orbital frontal cortex, insula, anterior and posterior cingulate, amygdala and anterior superior temporal gyrus, since they demonstrated a statistical alignment with the functional neuroanatomy of psychopathy.”

But before you choose to accuse all climate change deniers of being psychopaths, Dr Azuela has a word of warning:

“It would be quite wrong to label climate change deniers as psychopaths based upon the results of this study. Psychopathy exists as a spectrum of human behaviour; in this instance the fMRI results simply indicate an unusually low paralimbic reaction to a perceived threat.”

In other words, the climate science deniers aren’t nut jobs after all—they just don’t care enough. But I’ll leave the final word to Dr Azuela:

“In reality, studies2 have shown that confirmation bias poses the greatest challenge to cognitive performance. Those that suffer this bias will accept what they read unquestioningly, whilst others remain instinctively suspicious. Doubt should have kicked in at the suggestion that Positano has a Behavioural and Cognitive Research Unit. However, if you still failed to recognize the inauthenticity of this article, perhaps you should now be questioning any faith you might have had in the scientific consensus.”

References:

1 Azuela, R., Ho, M.T., Malaxic, T., Bernstein, F., (2018), “The neurobiology of climate change denial”, Journal of Environmental and Economic Studies, Issue 16[2].

2 Westen, D.; Blagov, P. S.; Harenski, K.; Kilts, C.; Hamann, S., (2006), “Neural bases of motivated reasoning: An fMRI study of emotional constraints on partisan political judgment in the 2004 U.S. presidential election”, Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 18 (11).

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June 6, 2018 at 07:32AM

Climate Scientists “Gone Astray”…”Climate Alarm Bubble Gradually Rupturing”, German Scientists Say

At the Wall Street Journal, Steven F. Hayward penned a great summary on the current state of the climate movement, telling that the CO2 climate change issue is quickly running out of oxygen.

Comparing the movement to earlier environmental movements, Hayward tells us that such movements can be broken down into 5 phases:

  1. Bring attention to the problem
  2. Euphoric enthusiasm to solve it
  3. Realization of the huge, painful costs
  4. Thus a decline of interest follows
  5. Issue moves to limbo…kept on life support

When it comes to climate change issue, today we find itself at stage 4, at least in Europe. In the USA it’s at about stage 5.

So it’s little wonder that climate scientists are frustrated, and openly lashing out in bursts of rhetorical aggression, of the sort we discussed here when criticized.

Climate scientists losing relevance

Leading climate scientists, who once fancied themselves as the architects of a new society and as policy masterminds, are now realizing they are becoming irrelevant. A very bitter pill to swallow indeed.

Yesterday German scientists Dr. Sebastian Lüning and Prof. Fritz Vahrenholt commented (below) on the NASA’s Gavin Schmidt’s and the PIK’s Stefan Rahmstorf’s harsh reaction to the public criticism from sociologist and and think-tank director Oliver Geden:

Stefan Rahmstorf loses his nerves at Twitter

Geden believes the job of policymaking needs to be left to policymakers, and not nerdy climate scientists in lab coats. Geden accused the activist climate scientists of “overconfidence bias”.

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Lüning and Vahrenholt comment at Die kalte Sonne on the reaction that ensued:

“Naturally that did not please the climate alarmists at all. Foremost they want to rescue the world and turn it inside out. God forbid the notion of having to return to their dark labs and having to carry out the tedious and dull work involving climate science.

The desire for power is strong, and people generally do not give it up so easily. Gavin Schmidt takes the stage. You know him: he’s the director of the NASA-GISS Institute and climate activist, just like his predecessor. He tweeted that climate scientists indeed could be politically active because after all they are constantly being asked for their opinions by decision-makers. Smart climatologists have long understood this (Schmidts tweet).

That was a cue for one of Schmidt’s best friends, namely Stefan Rahmstorf. He immediately took out the big stick from his bag to retaliate against the criticism aimed by Geden at his alarmist colleagues. He accused Geden of having much less contact with policymakers than him and his associates.

Rahmstorf has “discredited himself”

Moreover, he accused Geden of lacking academic credentials. Rahmstorf advised Geden to finally leave his climate colleagues alone and that they did not need his advice Tweet here. That’s the Rahmstorf we love: unreceptive to criticism and hits out below the belt. No wonder that he is no longer allowed to write on the IPCC report. With his very unbearable manner, he has completely discredited himself.

Geden coolly responded to Rahmstorf’s emotional outburst:

You want to make this personal, even if you haven’t been involved in the conversation? And my academic achievements aren’t good enough to criticize questionable factual claims? These are usually good enough to review articles on climate targets in Nature research journals…

plus: what exactly do you know about my direct contacts w/ policymakers? It’s my daily job since my institution (@SWPBerlin) is funded by the Chancellery to advise (whole) government and parliament (not only enviro & research), I even worked at the top level of two ministries,

therefore: I know not only what policymakers and politicians say when meeting ‘leading climate scientists’, but also what they say before and after those meetings, and what role (new) scientific knowledge plays in actual policymaking.’

Climate scientists “gone astray”

The above Twitter communication is a nice document confirming how the representatives of climate alarmism have gone astray. Obviously there is no interest in a balanced professional discussion. Research from inconvenient subjects should be stopped, policymakers should only listen to the alarmists.

The climate alarm bubble is gradually coming apart and we are seeing live.”

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June 6, 2018 at 07:15AM