Guardian’s Latest Arctic Scare

By Paul Homewood

Today’s scare story from the Guardian:

The oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic has started to break up, opening waters north of Greenland that are normally frozen, even in summer.

This phenomenon – which has never been recorded before – has occurred twice this year due to warm winds and a climate-change driven heatwave in the northern hemisphere.

One meteorologist described the loss of ice as “scary”. Others said it could force scientists to revise their theories about which part of the Arctic will withstand warming the longest.

The sea off the north coast of Greenland is normally so frozen that it was referred to, until recently, as “the last ice area” because it was assumed that this would be the final northern holdout against the melting effects of a hotter planet.

But abnormal temperature spikes in February and earlier this month have left it vulnerable to winds, which have pushed the ice further away from the coast than at any time since satellite records began in the 1970s.

“Almost all of the ice to the north of Greenland is quite shattered and broken up and therefore more mobile,” said Ruth Mottram of the Danish Meteorological Institute. “Open water off the north coast of Greenland is unusual. This area has often been called ‘the last ice area’ as it has been suggested that the last perennial sea ice in the Arctic will occur here. The events of the last week suggest that, actually, the last ice area may be further west.”

Ice to the north of Greenland is usually particularly compacted due to the Transpolar Drift Stream, one of two major weather patterns that push ice from Siberia across the Arctic to the coastline, where it packs.

Walt Meier, a senior research scientist at the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, said: “The ice there has nowhere else to go so it piles up. On average, it’s over four metres thick and can be piled up into ridges 20 metres thick or more. This thick, compacted ice is generally not easily moved around.

“However, that was not the case this past winter (in February and March) and now. The ice is being pushed away from the coast by the winds.”

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/21/arctics-strongest-sea-ice-breaks-up-for-first-time-on-record

In fact there is nothing unusual at all about winds moving sea ice around, particularly in summer when the ice is thin and sparse. Even Keld Qvistgaard, the ice service coordinator in Denmark, admits this was not the first time a gap had appeared between the shore and the main ice pack in this area. And, of course, we only have satellite data available since the 1970s.

You would not guess it from the article though that most of the sea ice in the central Arctic is two and three meters thick, much thicker than in most recent years.

Or that sea ice volume is actually above the 2004-13 average for this time of year:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

Or that Arctic sea ice extent is holding up well this summer:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php

Or that Arctic temperatures have been below average for almost all of the summer:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

And air temperatures to the north of Greenland are already well below freezing:

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/weather/arcticweather_imagecontainer.php

By comparison, in 2008 most of the thick ice had already gone from the Arctic, and the bit that was left to the north of Greenland was about to be washed out through the Fram Strait.

Indeed, far from the north Greenland coast being the “last ice area”, home of perennial sea ice, as the unreliable Ruth Mottram claims, that area is always highly vulnerable 2008 type events. Rather, it is the Canadian Archipelago which attracts the thickest and oldest ice.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icethickness/thk.uk.php

This is unlikely to happen this summer, because there is high pressure over the pole, which will work the ice in a clockwise direction, away from the Fram Strait.