The battle of the weather forecast computer models is about to be waged. Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. writes on Twitter:

So far, it looks like ECMWF had best handle on hurricane. Nonetheless, @NWSHonolulu has been doing an excellent job that will save lives. @RyanMaue @richardabetts @BigJoeBastardi @CliffMass @curryja @NWSDirector @USWeatherExpert @WeatherTalk https://t.co/kEvCi5Eik8

— Roger A. Pielke Sr (@RogerAPielkeSr) August 23, 2018

He adds:

If ECMWF is correct..will further cement role as leading global model. But if its wrong….it will elevate USA & other models @NWSDirector @WeatherTalk @CliffMass @BigJoeBastardi @RyanMaue @curryja @richardabetts If ECMWF is right, however, there should be post mortem as to why

Here’s the latest animation of the Hurricane via infrared satellite view, along with the projected storm tracks from the USA models.

And here are some still images showing radar and cloud cover imaged in infrared:

Now, here is the ECMWF (European) model via Dr. Ryan Maue at weathermodels.com

The ECMWF has some tracks steering the storm into Maui and also Oahu.

Let’s hope it’s wrong.