By Paul Homewood
BBC’s Autumnwatch is coming from New England this year, (which presumably will involve a huge carbon footprint!).
In this week’s episode, they take a look at the declining population of moose in New Hampshire, and, you’ve guessed it, its all the fault of climate change!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b0bp1d04/autumnwatch-2018-episode-3
The segment begins at 47 mins in, but the story runs like this:
- The moose population of New Hampshire has declined by 50% in the last 20 years.
- This decline has been linked to a rise in the number of winter ticks.
- These ticks climb onto the moose during fall, and drop off in spring. Any who don’t find a host die during the cold of winter.
- Ticks can sufficiently weaken moose, particularly the young, as to jeopardise their survival and breeding success the following summer.
- Milder and “later” falls, triggered by climate change, allow more ticks to infest moose, and consequently less will die during the winter.
- Cue emotive pictures of moose full of tick and dying.
All this sounds perfectly logical, or at least until you examine some of the facts that the BBC forgot to tell you.
For a start, according to New Hampshire Fish and Game moose populations expanded tremendously during the 20thC, before peaking in the 1990s:
Moose occur in Alaska, Canada, northern U.S. from Washington across to northern New England, and the northern Rockies south to Utah. Prior to European settlement moose were more common than deer in New Hampshire; their range extended from the Canadian border to the seacoast. During a year, moose home ranges vary from less than one square mile to more than 25, depending on the season. By the mid-1800s, fewer than 15 moose existed in New Hampshire. The small number and loss of habitat slowed the recovery of the moose population. The moose herd didn’t begin to rebound noticeably until the early 1970s. By this time, abandoned farmlands and changes in forest practices created a mosaic of mature and young re-growing forests providing excellent moose habitat. When the first moose hunt occurred in New Hampshire in 1988, there were about 1,600 animals in the state. The moose population peaked in the late 1990s, with between 7,000 and 7,500 moose in New Hampshire. Since that time, the population has declined to about 3,500. About half the decline was an intentional response to the public’s desire for fewer moose-car collisions. The other half is due to threats such as winter tick in the north and brainworm in the south. Today moose occur in all ten counties, with the highest densities in the Great North Woods.
https://www.wildlife.state.nh.us/wildlife/profiles/moose.html
It seems strange, to say the least, that moose numbers should peak after decades of warming.
It is also notable that winter tick does not seem to be a problem in the south of the state, where it is of course warmer. maybe ticks don’t like warm weather, and a warmer climate would be a good thing for moose!!
Indeed, moose have been thriving to such an extent that moose hunts were officially reintroduced in 1988, as part of a management control programme.
But what about those “later falls”?
Well according to NOAA, they are largely a myth, as far as New Hampshire goes at least.
October temperatures have been no higher in recent decades than than the 1940s to 60s, and there seems to be little trend in November temperatures since the 1940s either.
December temperatures do show an upward trend, but by then average temperatures are well below zero anyway, killing the ticks regardless.
There is a much simpler explanation for what’s been going, and one that does not need the invoking of climate change. Interestingly in his round up, Chris Packham alludes to it.
What we are observing is the simple cyclical relationship of predator and prey. As with any other such relationship, an increasing population of prey will bring about a larger number of predators eventually. As a result, the population of prey drops, in time causing a drop in the numbers of predators, starting the cycle all over again.
As we know, the number of moose in New Hampshire rose dramatically during the 20thC, and that is why we are now seeing increased numbers of ticks.
Although ticks feed off all sorts of animals, they seem to most effectively parasitize moose. Far from being a localised issue in New Hampshire, ticks evidently are a widespread problem for moose across much of their range.
Put simply, there is no evidence that the current problem with tick infestation in New Hampshire is anything new or unprecedented.
Round Up
There is a interesting footnote to the story.
At the end of the moose segment of Autumnwatch, eco-fanatic Chris Packham and his sidekick, Michaela “look at how famous I am” Strachan sat in their studio and summed up the story.
Strachan made some utterly inane remarks, such as:
“It’s a fascinating story, and a real worry because it’s about climate change”
“The moose are at their most southerly range. They have been pushed down because its warmer. So New England is where you find them in the south.”
However, Packham recognises the real issue:
“It is still a natural battle going on between them [moose and ticks], and these sorts of population regulators are intrinsically important in populations for regulating. Otherwise if the moose kept on coming forward, they would get into competition with some of the deer species perhaps”
In other words, it is called mother nature. And unfortunately nature isn’t about Bambi, and is rarely very pretty either.
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October 19, 2018 at 12:30PM
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