Topographic map of Greenland
Such predictions are usually wrong anyway, the real question being the degree of ‘wrong-ness’ compared to the actual data. The expected (by climate models) linear progression of global temperatures has fizzled out – inasmuch as it ever existed – since the ‘pause’, apart from a recent El Niño blip. Solar cycle activity is also declining compared to other recent cycles..
Current climate change predictions in the UK and parts of Europe may be inaccurate, a study conducted by researchers from the University of Lincoln, UK, and the University of Liège, Belgium, suggests.
Existing computer model simulations have failed to properly include air pressure changes that have occured in the Greenland region throughout the past 30 years, says The GWPF.
Over the last three decades, the simulations suggested a drop in summertime air pressure in the Greenland region. In reality, the air pressure in the area has gone up.
“These differences between the estimates from the current climate models and observations suggests [sic] that the models cannot accurately represent recent conditions or predict future changes in Greenland climate,” Edward Hanna, a professor of climate science and meteorology at Lincoln and co-lead author of the study, said in a statement.
The mistake could have global implications, as the simulations are observed throughout the world to predict future climate change.
The researchers believe current models predicting the melting of Greenland’s Ice Sheet, which encompasses more than 80 percent of Greenland’s surface, may significantly underestimate the global sea level rise by the year 2100.
They also predict there could be more summertime rainfall in England and Wales if Greenland air pressure continues to strengthen.
Continued here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
October 20, 2018 at 08:37AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 