By Paul Homewood
The government, and Claire Perry in particular, like to keep telling us how much we have cut emissions of CO2 already in the UK.
Last week, she claimed:
The UK is already a world leader when it comes to tackling climate change. We led the world with our Climate Change Act, and since 1990 we have led the G7 in cutting emissions while growing our economy on a per person basis
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/climate-experts-asked-for-advice-on-net-zero-target
The message is clear – we can keep cutting emissions without harm to the economy, just as we supposedly have in the past.
But a look at the actual numbers tells a rather different story.
First, the basic numbers:
Between 1990 and 2016, emissions of CO2 (ie not all GHGs) fell from 596 to 356 MtCO2. (Latest data is only available up to 2016).
Nearly all of the reduction occurred in two sectors, industrial and power.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2017
Emissions of CO2 from industry fell by 63 MtCO2 up to 2016. This drop emissions was a steady process, beginning around 2001. It is hard to see that this is anything other than the result of industrial decline. According to BEIS, energy consumption by industrial fell from 34.6 to 23.1 Mtoe during that period.
Of course, companies are always looking at ways to save energy, as I can personally attest from my years in the steel industry in the 1970s and 80s. But such savings tended to be more than offset by increased production.
Whatever the factors behind this decline, it certainly cannot be claimed by Perry as a positive benefit of her climate policies.
That brings us to the power sector, where emissions fell by 137 MtCO2 between 1990 and 2016. This figure can be neatly divided into two distinct segments:
- 1990 to 2009 – 52 MtCO2
- 2009 to 2016 – 85 MtCO2
The only significant change to the electricity mix prior to 2009 was a major shift from coal power to CCGT. Coal power virtually halved from 234 to 120 TWh, whilst CCGT rose from virtually zero to 159 TWh.
Total generation also rose by 40 TWh. Renewables were still in their infancy in 2009, so the vast bulk of the emission savings were the result of the switch from coal to gas, the dash for gas as it was called at the time, which began in earnest in 1993.
As in the US with their shale gas revolution, switching from coal to gas resulted in cheaper power and reduced emissions. Again, Perry cannot claim this as the result of climate policy.
With coal power now down to 21 TWh last year, there is obviously little scope for any more emissions from that direction.
The second period since 2009 is more complicated, but the changes in generation are shown below:
| Twh | 2016 v 2009 |
| Coal | -81 |
| Biomass | 21 |
| Gas | -30 |
| Wind/Solar | 52 |
| Imports | 12 |
| Total | -26 |
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/electricity-section-5-energy-trends
Obviously the switch to wind/solar has been a major contributory factor to the reduction in emissions, as has reduced consumption (for whatever reason). Increased imports has also helped to reduce UK emissions, regardless of how they were generated.
Equally, biomass also counts as zero emissions, but we know that this is far from the case in real life.
If we go back and summarise the emission changes since 1990, we can make some educated guesses:
- Reduced industrial energy consumption: –63 MtCO2
- Dash for gas 1990 to 2009: – 52 MtCO2
- Wind/Solar: – 42 MtCO2
- Reduced electricity consumption: – 20 MtCO2
- Increased electricity imports: – 9 MtCO2
- Biomass: – 14 MtCO2
- LULUCF (Land use changes etc): – 16 MtCO2
- Others : – 24 MtCO2
Total emissions have been cut by 240 MtCO2 since 1990, but adding biomass back into the figures as real emissions, the cut is only 226 MtCO2.
Of this, arguably only the saving of 42 MtCO2 from wind and solar can be said to be a direct result of govt policy. And this has been achieved only at great cost to the economy.
In terms of what is sustainable into the future, even if the power sector was totally decarbonised ( a highly unlikely prospect in the foreseeable future), we would only save a further 66 MtCO2.
The reality is that the bulk of emission savings since 1990 have not been the result of renewable energy, nor of any government action. Instead they have arisen because of a mix of unconnected events, which either cannot be repeated or we would not want to see be.
To pretend that we can carry on cutting emissions just as we did in the past and without any damage to the economy is mendacious in the extreme.
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October 27, 2018 at 07:39AM
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