The weather models are all now pointing to wintry weather pushing into Europe next week, after a year of near record warm temperatures. Is a cold winter in store?
German skeptic weather and climate blogger Schneefan (Snow Fan) here writes that the winter most likely will be starting early this year, but it remains a question if the colder, more wintery conditions will persist throughout the winter.
The current low solar activity favors it will, as studies show Europe’s winters turn harsher when solar activity is quiet. Over the past few days, the models have been in agreement in showing that cold wintry weather is approaching in the days ahead.
Schneefan writes that the big 3 weather models ECMWF (Europe), GFS (USA) and GEM (Canada) have all been projecting the same development:
Shown above are the prognoses dated 10 November, 2018, from ECMWF (Europe), GFS (USA) and GEM (Canada) for the 20th of November. Source: Wetterzentrale
Yesterday the three models forecast the following for November 19:
Source: Wetterzentrale
The stratospheric models from ECMWF und GFS also point to an early wintery weather pattern change, with a large trough extending over the entire Mediterranean and an extensive high over Scandinavia and Northern Russia:
Comparison of the ECMWF (150 hPa, 14 km altitude) and GFS (100 hPa, about 16 km altitude) prognoses November 20. This unusual large weather pattern signifies a change in the wind patterns and favor cold Russian air moving over Europe . If the models are right, it would mean an early start for winter in Europe. Source: ECMWF and GFS.
WO/GFS already foresees frost for Eastern Europe this weekend:
Snow is also forecast to spread across large regions of eastern Europe early next week:
Large parts of Germany and Europe could see snow cover at the end of November:
Schneefan writes that the conditions could be similar to those seen in the winters of 2005/06 and 2010/11. One reason, Schneefan writes:
We now find ourselves in a multiple-year solar minimum of weak solar cycles that is the weakest in the last 200 years.
Just recently the GFS06 showing a northern position (Greenland/Atlantic blocking) and further massive winter invasions from the north on November 29, 2018.
So while Europe may be enjoying agreeable mild weather for now, models show that it may very well end abruptly. Preparations for winter should be done over the coming days.
Global warming eliminating snow and ice remains a myth. Soon expect to hear warmist scientists claim the cold is due to the warming causing polar vortices. Don’t buy the nonsense. It’s BS science.
The truth is that this is just winter as usual, and the climate has not really changed that much.
via NoTricksZone
November 14, 2018 at 07:12AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 