“It doesn’t matter how beautiful your theory is, it doesn’t matter how smart you are. If it doesn’t agree with experiment, it’s wrong.

– Richard P. Feynman

In 1988, NASA’s James Hansen made temperature forecasts for three emissions scenarios.  Scenario A was increasing emission growth rates. Scenario B was decreasing emission growth rates. Scenario C was no emissions after the year 2000.

1988_Hansen_ha02700w.pdf

So how did Hansen do? The graph below shows the five year mean of lower troposphere temperatures measured by satellite.

Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs

The next graph overlays the satellite lower troposphere temperatures in red, on Hansen’s 1988 forecasts – at the same scale and normalized to the early 1980’s.

Troposphere temperatures have tracked Hansen’s zero emissions scenario. If (your theory) doesn’t agree with experiment, it is wrong.

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