By Paul Homewood
BBC blames Cyclone Idai on climate change:
Unless a rich benefactor steps in, the role of human-induced climate change in Cyclone Idai is unlikely to be clearly determined.
The scientists with the expertise simply don’t have the resources to do the large amount of computer modelling required.
However, there are a number of conclusions about rising temperatures that researchers have gleaned from previous studies on tropical cyclones in the region. While Cyclone Idai is the seventh such major storm of the Indian Ocean season – more than double the average for this time of year – the long-term trend does not support the idea that these type of events are now more frequent.
"The interesting thing for the area is that the frequency of tropical cyclones has decreased ever so slightly over the last 70 years," said Dr Jennifer Fitchett from the University of the Witwatersrand in South Africa who has studied the question.
"Instead, we are getting a much higher frequency of high-intensity storms."
Climate change is also changing a number of factors in the background that are contributing to making the impact of these storms worse.
"There is absolutely no doubt that when there is a tropical cyclone like this, then because of climate change the rainfall intensities are higher," said Dr Friederike Otto, from the University of Oxford, who has carried a number of studies looking at the influence of warming on specific events.
"And also because of sea-level rise, the resulting flooding is more intense than it would be without human-induced climate change."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-47638588
Usual BBC tactics – find a junk scientist to spout falsehoods which they could not get away with themselves.
If McGrath bothered to check the actual data, he would find that Accumulated Cyclone Energy has actually been declining in the Southern Hemisphere:
http://www.policlimate.com/tropical/
Sea levels are barely rising at all around Mozambique:
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=432-001
And despite the assertion that there is absolutely no doubt that when there is a tropical cyclone like this, then because of climate change the rainfall intensities are higher, even the IPCC has had to admit that there is little empirical evidence to back this up.
But when did the BBC ever bother with facts, where climate change is concerned?
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
March 21, 2019 at 07:42AM
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