Month: March 2019

Fake Photographs at Heart of Peter Ridd’s Sacking

EARLY last year a professor of physics at James Cook University was sacked – after a successful career spanning some forty years. Peter Ridd had won many university awards, including the inaugural ‘Supervisor of the Year’, presumably nominated by one or more of his thirty-something PhD students. He published over 100 scientific papers and earned […]

The post Fake Photographs at Heart of Peter Ridd’s Sacking appeared first on Jennifer Marohasy.

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March 24, 2019 at 06:00AM

CEI Supports EPA’s Proposed Revision of Power Plant Rule

Marlo Lewis, Jr. • March 19, 2019 Yesterday I submitted comments on behalf of the Competitive Enterprise Institute supporting the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal to dramatically scale back the agency’s 2015 rule establishing “carbon pollution” standards for new coal power plants. This post provides some quick background on EPA’s proposal and then summarizes the key…

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March 24, 2019 at 04:04AM

What can machine learning reveal about the solid Earth?


The ability to recognize patterns in Earth’s behaviour by sifting through masses of geological data could be programmed into machines.

Scientists seeking to understand Earth’s inner clockwork have deployed armies of sensors listening for signs of slips, rumbles, exhales and other disturbances emanating from the planet’s deepest faults to its tallest volcanoes.

“We measure the motion of the ground continuously, typically collecting 100 samples per second at hundreds to thousands of instruments,” said Stanford geophysicist Gregory Beroza. “It’s just a huge flux of data.”

Yet scientists’ ability to extract meaning from this information has not kept pace, reports Phys.org.

The solid Earth, the oceans and the atmosphere together form a geosystem in which physical, biological and chemical processes interact on scales ranging from milliseconds to billions of years, and from the size of a single atom to that of an entire planet.

“All these things are coupled at some level,” explained Beroza, the Wayne Loel Professor in the School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). “We don’t understand the individual systems, and we don’t understand their relationships with one another.”

Now, as Beroza and co-authors outline in a paper published March 21 in the journal Science, machine-learning algorithms trained to explore the structure of ever expanding geologic data streams, build upon observations as they go and make sense of increasingly complex, sprawling simulations are helping scientists answer persistent questions about how the Earth works.

“When I started collaborating with geoscientists five years ago, there was interest and curiosity around machine learning and data science,” recalled Karianne Bergen, lead author on the paper and a researcher at the Harvard Data Science Initiative who earned her doctorate in computational and mathematical engineering from Stanford. “But the community of researchers using machine learning for geoscience applications was relatively small.”

That’s changing rapidly. The most straightforward applications of machine learning in Earth science automate repetitive tasks like categorizing volcanic ash particles and identifying the spike in a set of seismic wiggles that indicates the start of an earthquake.

This type of machine learning is similar to applications in other fields that might train an algorithm to detect cancer in medical images based on a set of examples labeled by a physician.

More advanced algorithms unlocking new discoveries in Earth science and beyond can begin to recognize patterns without working from known examples.

“Suppose we develop an earthquake detector based on known earthquakes. It’s going to find earthquakes that look like known earthquakes,” Beroza explained. “It would be much more exciting to find earthquakes that don’t look like known earthquakes.”

Beroza and colleagues at Stanford have been able to do just that by using an algorithm that flags any repeating signature in the sets of wiggles picked up by seismographs – the instruments that record shaking from earthquakes – rather than hunting for only the patterns created by earthquakes that scientists have previously catalogued.

Both types of algorithms – those with explicit labeling in the training data and those without – can be structured as deep neural networks, which act like a many-layered system in which the results of some transformation of data in one layer serves as the input for a new computation in the next layer.

Among other efforts noted in the paper, these types of networks have allowed geoscientists to quickly compute the speed of seismic waves – a critical calculation for estimating earthquake arrival times – and to distinguish between shaking caused by Earth’s natural motion as opposed to explosions.

Full article here.

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March 24, 2019 at 04:00AM

EXCELLENT LETTER IN SUPPORT OF PRESIDENT’S COMMISSION ON CLIMATE SECURITY

Letter in support of President’s Commission on Climate Security and Dr. Will Happer

The Honorable Donald J. Trump
President of the United States
The White House
1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, N. W.
Washington, DC 20500
Via e-mail
Dear President Trump,
The undersigned organizations and individuals write to express our strong support for
the proposed President’s Commission on Climate Security. It is our understanding that
this commission, which is being planned and would be directed by Dr. William Happer
of the National Security Council staff, is currently being considered by your senior
White House staff and relevant Cabinet secretaries and agency heads. The commission
would consist of a small number of distinguished experts on climate-related science and
national security. It would be charged with conducting an independent, high-level
review of the Fourth National Climate Assessment and other official reports relating to
climate and its implications for national security. Its deliberations would be subject to
the transparency requirements of the Federal Advisory Committees Act.
In our view, an independent review of these reports is long overdue. Serious problems
and shortcomings have been raised repeatedly in the past by highly-qualified scientists
only to be ignored or dismissed by the federal agencies in charge of producing the
reports. Among major issues that have been raised and that we hope the commission
will scrutinize: the models used have assumed climate sensitivities to CO2
concentrations significantly higher than recent research warrants; the models used have
predicted much more warming than has actually occurred; predictions of the negative
impacts of global warming have been made based on implausible high-end emissions
scenarios; the positive impacts of warming have been ignored or minimized; and surface
temperature data sets have been manipulated to show more rapid warming than has
actually occurred. An underlying issue that we hope the commission will also address is
the fact that so many of the scientific claims made in these reports and by many
climate scientists are not falsifiable, that is, they cannot be tested by the scientific
method.
The conclusions and predictions made by these reports are the basis for proposed
energy policies that could cost trillions of dollars in less than a decade and tens of
trillions of dollars over several decades. Given the magnitude of the potential costs
involved, we think that taking the insular processes of official, consensus science on
trust, as has been the case for the past three decades, is negligent and imprudent. In
contrast, major engineering projects are regularly subjected to the most rigorous and
exhaustive adversarial review. We suggest that climate science requires at least the
same level of scrutiny as the engineering employed in building a bridge or a new
airplane.
We note that defenders of the climate consensus have already mounted a public
campaign against the proposed commission. We find this opposition curious. If the
defenders are confident that the science contained in official reports is robust, then they
should welcome a review that would finally put to rest the doubts that have been
raised. On the other hand, their opposition could be taken as evidence that the
scientific basis of the climate consensus is in fact highly suspect and cannot withstand
critical review.
We further note that opponents of the proposed commission have already stooped to
making personal attacks on Dr. Happer. Many signers of this letter know Dr. Happer
personally and all are familiar with his scientific career. We know him to be a man of
high capabilities, high achievements, and the highest integrity.
It has been reported that some officials within your administration have proposed an
internal working group as an alternative to an independent commission subject to
FACA. Insofar as an internal working group would consist of federal career scientists
reviewing their own work, we think this alternative would be worse than doing
nothing.
Although an independent commission of distinguished scientists would have high
credibility, we do not mean to imply that its report should be the end of the
matter. We therefore suggest that the National Academies of Science and Engineering
would be appropriate bodies to conduct an initial review of the commission’s report.
Mr. President, you have made a number of comments in recent years expressing doubts
about the global warming consensus. Many of the signers of this letter have been
similarly skeptical. Without prejudging the results, we think that a review of climate
science produced by an independent, high-level commission would be a fair test for
your views (and ours): either it would provide a sound basis for revising your views or it
would confirm your views and confound your critics.
For these reasons, we urge you to create by Executive Order a President’s Commission
on Climate Security. Thank you for considering our views.
Sincerely,
Craig Rucker
President, CFACT

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March 24, 2019 at 02:30AM