Overheating Climate Models

By Paul Homewood

There is often debate about the accuracy of climate models, which predict temperature changes.

It is worthwhile then reviewing what IPCC AR5 had to say in 2013:

It is the top row of graphs which is relevant.

Essentially HADCRUT4 showed virtually no warming between 1998 and 2012, whilst models projected over 0.1C per decade. Bear in mind that these are historical simulations, effectively retro projections, rather than forecasts made in 1998.

Clearly something had badly gone wrong with the climate models, which even the IPCC could not explain away. It is true that the rate of warming between 1984 and 1998 was greater than the models suggested, but we also know that this period coincided with the warm phases of both the PDO and AMO.

And what has happened since 2013?

We have of course experienced two years of record El Nino activity, but global temperatures last year were back down to the levels of the early 2000s. In other words, the models are still drastically overstating actual warming.