Common Fantasy: “Red States Are Dumping Coal for Solar”

Guest bubble bursting by David Middleton

Juan Cole of Common Dreams (s socialist rage) is always good for a laugh.

Monday, July 22, 2019
It’s Just Good Business: Even Red States Are Dumping Coal for Solar
by Juan Cole

Arizona, despite being GOP-dominated, is number 3 in the US for residential solar power production. In the first quarter of 2019 alone, Arizona homeowners put in 52.83 megawatts of new solar installations. As for industrial-scale solar, Arizona utility APS generates 1.4 gigawatts worth of solar power, equivalent to a small nuclear plant. APS’s rival TEP is planning residential solar installations in 90,000 Arizona homes.

[Orange man bad, blah, blah, blah]

Common Fantasies

Solar power works better in Arizona than just about anywhere else in America. It’s a subset of “Nonhydroelectric Renewables”…

Figure 1. Arizona State Energy Profile, US EIA.

All five members of Georgia’s Public Service Commission are Republicans, and they just decided to double their order for new solar… power and to close a coal plant

Common Fantasies

Figure 2. Georgia State Energy Profile, US EIA.

New Orleans has decided to add 90 megawatts of solar power, nearly doubling Louisana’s current 99 MW.

Common Fantasies

Figure 3. Louisiana State Energy Profile, US EIA.

Texas has been, inexplicably, a laggard in the solar sector. It is a wind giant. But precisely for that reason, solar installations are increasing and the state has jumped to sixth in the country for solar production…

Common Fantasies

Almost all of Texas’ “renewables” come from wind power and April is the windiest month of the year.

Figure 4. Texas State Energy Profile, US EIA.

Texas “has jumped to sixth in the country for solar production”… which is clustered with biomass, hydroelectric and other just above the Dean Wormer line…

Figure 5. 2019 Demand and Energy Report (ERCOT)

Solar production in Texas is effectively…

Juan Cole’s amazingly stupid article never mentioned natural gas until the last paragraph…

So, to summarize: Republican decision-makers increasingly see solar as just a good business investment that produces electricity more cost-effectively than coal. One important consideration is that the fuel is free, so that municipalities that want 25-year bids favor renewables over fossil fuels. Who knows how expensive natural gas will be in 2044? But sun and wind will still be free.

Common Fantasies

Who knows how expensive natural gas will be in 2044?

Common Fantasies

Figure 6. AEO2019 natural gas price projections.

Between $3.21 and $7.03 per mmBtu, most likely around $4.38/mmBtu. And the cost of natural gas-fired electricity in current dollars won’t be much higher than it is now according to the Energy Information Administration.

Figure 7. Natural gas advanced combined cycle LCOE (US EIA)

But sun and wind will still be free.

Common Fantasies

Not even in your wildest Enviromarxist fantasies…

$110.40 per MWh???

According to the US EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook, in 2050 we’ll be getting 48% of 31% of our electricity from solar PV. For the math-impaired, that’s 15%… While, we’ll be still getting 17% of our electricity from coal-fired power plants.

Of course, electricity generation is only one part of the energy puzzle. Primary energy includes transportation, electricity generation, industrial, commercial and residential consumption.

The green curve is “other renewables,” primarily wind (both onshore and offshore) and solar, the gray curve is “coal,” the blue curve is “natural gas.” Note that in 2050, “other renewables” will have barely overtaken “coal,” while “petroleum and other liquids” and “natural gas” will each be 3-4 times the Quad Btu as “other renewables.”

Are EIA projections always right? No. They’re “projections”. EIA totally missed the Shale Revolution. If frac’ing was a unicorn, then Juan Cole’s fantasy woukd be a projection.

Juan Cole earns a Distinguished Billy Madison Cross for his efforts.