Guest Yogi Berra-ism by David Middleton

NEW YORK (AP) — Earth is in more hot water than ever before, and so are we, an expert United Nations climate panel warned in a grim new report Wednesday.

Sea levels are rising at an ever-faster rate as ice and snow shrink, and oceans are getting more acidic and losing oxygen, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said in a report issued as world leaders met at the United Nations.

AP Series: What Can Be Saved

It warned that if steps aren’t taken to reduce emissions and slow global warming, seas will rise 3 feet by the end of the century, with many fewer fish, less snow and ice, stronger and wetter hurricanes and other, nastier weather systems.

“The oceans and the icy parts of the world are in big trouble, and that means we’re all in big trouble, too,” said one of the report’s lead authors, Michael Oppenheimer, professor of geosciences and international affairs at Princeton University. “The changes are accelerating.”

[…”Déjà vu all over again”…]

AP

This immediately made me think of one of my all-time favorite baseball players, coaches and managers: Lawrence “Yogi” Berra.

Why did I think of the Yogi Berra quote?

U.N. Predicts Disaster if Global Warming Not Checked
PETER JAMES SPIELMANN June 29, 1989

UNITED NATIONS (AP) _ A senior U.N. environmental official says entire nations could be wiped off the face of the Earth by rising sea levels if the global warming trend is not reversed by the year 2000.

Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ″eco- refugees,′ ′ threatening political chaos, said Noel Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program, or UNEP.

He said governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.

As the warming melts polar icecaps, ocean levels will rise by up to three feet, enough to cover the Maldives and other flat island nations, Brown told The Associated Press in an interview on Wednesday.

Coastal regions will be inundated; one-sixth of Bangladesh could be flooded, displacing a fourth of its 90 million people. A fifth of Egypt’s arable land in the Nile Delta would be flooded, cutting off its food supply, according to a joint UNEP and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency study.

″Ecological refugees will become a major concern, and what’s worse is you may find that people can move to drier ground, but the soils and the natural resources may not support life. Africa doesn’t have to worry about land, but would you want to live in the Sahara?″ he said.

UNEP estimates it would cost the United States at least $100 billion to protect its east coast alone.

Shifting climate patterns would bring back 1930s Dust Bowl conditions to Canadian and U.S. wheatlands, while the Soviet Union could reap bumper crops if it adapts its agriculture in time, according to a study by UNEP and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.

Excess carbon dioxide is pouring into the atmosphere because of humanity’s use of fossil fuels and burning of rain forests, the study says.

The atmosphere is retaining more heat than it radiates, much like a greenhouse.

The most conservative scientific estimate that the Earth’s temperature will rise 1 to 7 degrees in the next 30 years, said Brown.

The difference may seem slight, he said, but the planet is only 9 degrees warmer now than during the 8,000-year Ice Age that ended 10,000 years ago.

Brown said if the warming trend continues, ″the question is will we be able to reverse the process in time? We say that within the next 10 years, given the present loads that the atmosphere has to bear, we have an opportunity to start the stabilizing process.″

[…]

AP

Setting aside the nonsense about sea level rise and the fact that Noel Brown is moronic left-wing bureaucrat with no scientific education, training or knowledge, this bit is hil-fracking-larious:

The most conservative scientific estimate that the Earth’s temperature will rise 1 to 7 degrees in the next 30 years, said Brown.

Noel Brown, moronic bureaucrat

Warming since 1989 based on linear trend lines:

• HadCRUT4 0.54 °C (0.96 °F)
• UAHv6.0 0.42 °C (0.76 °F)

“The most conservative scientific estimate that the Earth’s temperature will rise 1 to 7 degrees in the next 30 years” was…

“Déjà vu all over again”

Seth Borenstein’s current version of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” is based upon the latest UN hoax, which relied on the now-retracted Resplandy et al., 2018. It’s a laundry list of totally unsubstantiated, speculative and/or out-of-context claims:

— Seas are now rising at one-seventh of an inch (3.66 millimeters) a year, which is 2.5 times faster than the rate from 1900 to 1990.

— The world’s oceans have already lost 1% to 3% of the oxygen in their upper levels since 1970 and will lose more as warming continues.

—From 2006 to 2015, the ice melting from Greenland, Antarctica and the world’s mountain glaciers has accelerated. They are now losing 720 billion tons (653 billion metric tons) of ice a year.

—Arctic June snow cover has shrunk more than half since 1967, down nearly 1 million square miles (2.5 million square kilometers).

—Arctic sea ice in September, the annual low point, is down almost 13% per decade since 1979. This year’s low, reported Monday, tied for the second-lowest on record.

—Marine animals are likely to decrease 15%, and catches by fisheries in general are expected to decline 21% to 24%, by the end of century because of climate change.

“Déjà vu all over again”

I don’t have the time or patience right now to shoot down every claim on the list (some are addressed here); but the first one is easy.

Seas are now rising at one-seventh of an inch (3.66 millimeters) a year, which is 2.5 times faster than the rate from 1900 to 1990.

I don’t think so.

Since 1993, actual SLR has been 3.0 mm/yr. From 1900-1990, it was 2.0 mm/yr.

3.0 mm/yr is 0.5 times as fast as 2.0 mm/yr, not 2.5 times as fast.

“Eustatic” refers to eustacy…

Eustacy

Of or pertaining to worldwide sea level.

Dictionary of Geological Terms. American Geological Institute. Archer Press, 1976

Eustatic means that it has been corrected for local/regional uplift and/or subsidence of the land (isostacy). Tide gauge reconstructions have to be eustatically corrected. The Climate Crime Syndicate currently tacks 0.3 mm/yr onto the satellite data, as a glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). This is bogus. The satellites are measuring changes in sea surface elevation: Eustatic sea level. The GIA is added because there isn’t enough SLR to account for their wildly exaggerated claims of Antarctic ice loss.

And there’s nothing anomalous about 3.0-3.2 mm/yr of SLR.

The rate of SLR from 1929-1963 was the same as the rate has been since 1993. Sea level was actually falling from 1808-1861 at a rate of 1.7 mm/yr. Sea level was very likely 1-6 m higher than it currently is for much of the past 3,000 years.

One thing to always keep in mind with efforts to estimate eustatic sea level: The error bars are always large.

“Earth is in more hot water than ever before…”

I suppose I should have started with the mind-numbingly stupid first sentence in the article.

Seth Borenstein earns a Billy Madison medal, with a Noel Brown oak leaf cluster-frack.

References

Brock, J.C.,  M. Palaseanu-Lovejoy, C.W. Wright, & A. Nayegandhi. (2008). “Patch-reef morphology as a proxy for Holocene sea-level variability, Northern Florida Keys, USA”. Coral Reefs. 27. 555-568. 10.1007/s00338-008-0370-y. 

Jevrejeva, S. , J.C. Moore, A. Grinsted, A.P. Matthews, G. Spada. 2014.  “Trends and acceleration in global and regional sea levels since 1807”.  Global and Planetary Change. %vol 113, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.12.004 https://ift.tt/2Xf756b

Siddall M, Rohling EJ, Almogi-Labin A, Hemleben C, Meischner D, Scmelzer I, Smeed DA (2003). “Sea-level fluctuations during the last glacial cycle”. Nature 423:853–858 LINK

Zachos, J. C., Pagani, M., Sloan, L. C., Thomas, E. & Billups, K. “Trends, rhythms, and aberrations in global climate 65 Ma to present”. Science 292, 686–-693 (2001).