Climate change: Australia fires will be ‘normal’ in warmer world–Matt McGrath

By Paul Homewood

The latest climate porn from Matt McGrath and his chums:

UK scientists say the recent fires in Australia are a taste of what the world will experience as temperatures rise.

Prof Richard Betts from the Met Office Hadley Centre said we are "seeing a sign of what would be normal conditions under a future warming world of 3C".

While natural weather patterns have driven recent fires, researchers said it’s "common sense" that human-induced heating is playing a role.

Last year was Australia’s warmest and driest year on record.

UK researchers have carried out a rapid analysis of the impact of climate change on the risk of wildfires happening all over the world. Their study looked at 57 research papers published since the last major review of climate science came out in 2013.

All the studies in the review showed links between climate change and the increased frequency or severity of fire weather. This is defined as those periods of time which have a higher risk of fire due to a combination of high temperatures, low humidity, low rainfall and high winds.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51094919#comment_137874312

As ever, the scare stories are based on theoretical modelling, and not real life.

For instance, it fails to recognise the fact that Australia’s climate has been much wetter since the mid 20thC than before, despite, or maybe because of, global warming.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/index.shtml#tabs=Tracker&tracker=timeseries&tQ=graph%3Drranom%26area%3Daus%26season%3D0112%26ave_yr%3D0

Or that the extreme drought seen there in the last few months has been due to natural weather factors, primarily an extremely strong Indian Ocean Dipole combined with a Sudden Stratospheric Warming over Antarctica. Richard Betts knows this full well, so why is he allowing the current fire season to be linked to climate change at all?

And neither is there any mention at all of the widespread failure to clear undergrowth, create fire breaks and so on, which has been the major factor in the severity of fires this year.

The study uncritically referred to by McGrath claims that human-induced warming has already led to a global increase in the frequency and severity of fire weather.

However this is contradicted by the actual data which shows that global area burned has declined over past decades.

Even in the Western US, one of the examples quoted in the study as getting worse fires, there has actually been little overall change in fire severity.

Peter Hitchens hit the nail on the head in this week’s Mail on Sunday:

Bushfire facts the biased BBC ignores

Glad as I always am to get news about Australia, an interesting parallel civilisation very like Britain but also deeply different, I am sick almost to screaming of the BBC’s incessant coverage of the forest fires there.

They do it only because it supports their fanatical preaching about man-made global warming. Actually, it doesn’t.

A little study reveals that Australia has been just as hot before, according to measurements as far back as 1889.

Various excuses are now made for ignoring these inconvenient figures but there really isn’t much doubt about it.

Huge forest fires are also common in Australia’s brief history, some of the worst having been in the very hot summer of 1938-9.

After lethal blazes in 2009, a Royal Commission in Victoria strongly recommended the ‘prescribed burning’ of brush to prevent future fires – an old Aboriginal method.

It criticised the ‘minimalist approach to prescribed burning despite recent official or independent reports and inquiries, all of which recommended increasing the programme. The State has allowed the forests to continue accumulating excessive fuel loads, adding to the likelihood of more intense bushfires and thereby placing firefighters and communities at greater risk.’

I don’t think anyone took much notice. Just so you know.