Mike Waite left the following comment over at Paul Homewood’s excellent not a lot of people know that blog yesterday:
There is an interesting paper by MacGuth et al (2013) which supports you :
From their summary:
-“We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of
Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ca. 90 000 km2) using a simplified energy balance
model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models
HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the
mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are
considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be
2016 +/- 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing),
2584 +/-109 Gt (RACMO2)
and 3907+/- 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of
5:8 +/- 0:4,
7:4 +/- 0:3
and 11:2 +/- 0:3 mm, respectively. “-
The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps
H Machguth1,2, P Rastner1, T Bolch1,3, N M¨olg1, L Sandberg Sørensen4,
G Aðalgeirsdottir5, J H van Angelen6, M R van den Broeke6 and
X Fettweis7
Online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/8/025005
Even if subsequent calculations modified these figures they are unlikely to be an order of magnitude higher and the sea level rise to 2098 calculated here is at most 11mm (not cm or feet or metres).
Can’t someone take these activists, sit them in a quet room and just read the literature to them since they seem incapable of such study themselves.
The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps
H Machguth1,2, P Rastner1, T Bolch1,3, N Mölg1, L Sandberg Sørensen4, G Aðalgeirsdottir5, J H van Angelen6, M R van den Broeke6 and X Fettweis7
Published 11 April 2013 • 2013 IOP Publishing Ltd
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 8, Number 2
Abstract
We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ~90 000 km2) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
February 17, 2020 at 09:59AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 