Month: February 2020

My (Dr. Spencer’s) Presentation to the Pacific Pension & Investment Institute

Reposted from Dr. Roy Spencer’s Blog

February 17th, 2020 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.

Langham Huntington Hotel in Pasadena, CA.

Last week I was privileged to present an invited talk (PDF here) to the Winter Roundtable of the the Pacific Pension & Investment Institute in Pasadena, CA. The PPI meeting includes about 120 senior asset managers representing about $25 Trillion in investments. Their focus is on long-term investing with many managing the retirement funds of private sector and state employees.

They had originally intended the climate change session to be a debate, but after numerous inquiries were unable to find anyone who was willing to oppose me.

Like most people, these asset managers represent a wide variety of views on climate change, but what they have in common is they are under increasing pressure to make “sustainable investing” a significant fraction of their portfolios. Some managers view this as an infringement on their fiduciary responsibility to provide the highest rates of return for their customers. Others believe that sustainable investing (e.g. in renewable energy projects) is a good long-term investment if not a moral duty. Nearly all have now divested from coal. Many investment funds now highlight their sustainable investments, as they cater to investors who (for a variety of reasons) want to be part of this new trend.

My understanding is that most investment managers have largely been convinced that climate change is a serious threat. My message was that this is not the case, and that at a minimum the dangers posed by human-caused climate change have been exaggerated. Furthermore, the benefits of more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (e.g. increased agricultural productivity with no sign of climate change-induced agricultural harm) are seldom mentioned. I showed Bjorn Lomborg’s evidence for the 95% reduction in weather-related mortality over the last 100 years, as well as Roger Pielke, Jr’s Munich Re data showing no increase in insured damages as a fraction of GDP.

One meeting organizer took considerable professional risk in insisting that I be invited to provide a more balanced view of climate change than most of the attendees had been exposed to before, and there was considerable anxiety about my inclusion in the program. Fortunately, my message (a 30 minute PowerPoint presentation [pdf here] with a panel discussion afterward) was unexpectedly well-received. An e-mail circulated after the meeting claimed that I had “changed the dynamic of future meetings.” The Heartland Institute was also involved in making this happen.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti gave a speech at the first night’s dinner, in which he (as you might expect) mentioned the challenge of climate change, reducing “carbon” emissions, and his young daughter’s anxiety over global warming.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti addresses the Winter Roundtable of the PPI Institute, 12 February 2020, Pasadena, CA.

The experience for me was gratifying. Even those few participants who disagreed with me were very polite, and we all got along very well. In what might be considered a bit of irony, on my flight to LAX we flew past the failed Ivanpah solar power facility southwest of Las Vegas, which produced a blinding white light for about 5 minutes.

Ivanpah-facility-from-planeIvanpah-facility-from-planeIvanpah solar energy facility in California’s Mojave Desert on 12 February 2020, taken from about 33,000 ft. altitude.

via Watts Up With That?

https://ift.tt/2SBcYa8

February 17, 2020 at 02:07PM

The South Wales Floods Of 1960

By Paul Homewood

 

 image

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1228925466100236289/photo/1

 

As expected, it has been South Wales which has taken the brunt of the rain from Storm Dennis, with a very rare red warning being issued there by the Met Office yesterday.

 

The top 48-hour rainfall totals were all in the area of Glamorgan and the Brecon Beacons:

 ScreenHunter_5613 Feb. 17 16.18

https://twitter.com/i/status/1229042751620050944 

 

As seems almost inevitable now whenever there is a flood, the media tell us we have had a month’s worth of rainfall in a day, as if this is unprecedented. In fact two or three inches in a day is a common event somewhere in Britain every year.

There are certain areas of Britain which are highly vulnerable to flooding, and South Wales unfortunately is one, thanks to the topography so close to the Brecon Beacons. The region has a history of bad floods. One in particular stands out, December 1960, when this rather poignant home movie was shot by an amateur cameraman.

The first 4 minutes are a bit boring, but it is worth watching the rest. I was particularly fascinated at the bit near the end, when a couple of locals put their lives at risk trying to repair a bridge!

 image

 https://player.bfi.org.uk/free/film/watch-great-floods-of-the-taff-and-the-rhondda-valleys-sunday-morning-december-the-4-19

 

The Met Office report for that month can be directly compared with Storm Dennis:

image

image

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/SO_7498a04d-6a40-4207-a27f-772663ffd2fc/

 

Note that both storms were centred near Iceland.

Whereas Dennis put down about 6 inches of rain in 48 hours, the 1960 storm dropped 7 inches over three days, with up to 5.5 inches in a 20-hour period in the Rhondda.

 

People argue that these sort of storms are more common  nowadays, but is there any evidence for these, other than subjective impression?

Just two years before the 1960 floods, Wales was hit by another storm, almost as bad, with more than 3 inches of rain in a day in places, leading to widespread flooding:

image

image

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/SO_7498a04d-6a40-4207-a27f-772663ffd2fc/

 

The British Rainfall publication for 1958 confirms the widespread nature of these measurements, and their presence at low level sites, rather than just up in the Brecons.

image

image

https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_7695e7a9-6dbf-43c7-b65c-53d0c293088f/

 

A trawl of the archives would doubtlessly uncover many more such examples, such as Nov 1929, when 211mm fell on Maerdy in a single day, leading to disastrous floods:

image

 https://digital.nmla.metoffice.gov.uk/IO_c23092fb-5e1f-47e6-9030-36578b5c1289/ 

Storms and floods such as these are unfortunately natural reoccurring events. It is saddening that climate scientists, politicians and the media now want to make political capital out of them.

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

https://ift.tt/2P1pFZk

February 17, 2020 at 01:01PM

Is Earth’s Magnetic Field Reversing? – Video

“There is no evidence of increased extinction rates associated with any of the past reversals,” the announcer for PBS Space Time video assures us.
Really!??

Oh, “there may be higher incidences of cancers and other mutations from more high-energy particles reaching the ground,” he continues. “And probably we’ll need to get much better at shielding satellites from the solar wind.”

Higher incidences of cancer and other mutations, but no evidence of increased extinction rates?  

The short answer I get from this video about whether or not Earth’s magnetic field is preparing to flip is, “Well, maybe.” How’s that for a scientific answer?

However, the video does provide some insights that I have referred to in both Not by Fire but by Ice and Magnetic Reversals and Evolutionary Leaps.

Our magnetic field is currently undergoing rapid changes, possibly signalling the imminent flipping of its polarity, the video says. The north pole may become the south, and the south the north.

The earth’s magnetic north pole is currently moving around 60 km (37 miles) per year, around 5 degrees south of the geographic pole, leaving Canadian territory and heading toward Siberia.

The good news (I guess) is that Earth’s magnetic field will probably hold out for at least our lifetimes… and perhaps for generations to come.

The post Is Earth’s Magnetic Field Reversing? – Video appeared first on Ice Age Now.

via Ice Age Now

https://ift.tt/3bJXxnj

February 17, 2020 at 12:53PM

Three women freeze to death in California mountains, agents say

More global warming in California?

12 Feb 2020 – Five people who crossed the U.S.-Mexico border illegally found themselves lost in a snowstorm Monday in mountains east of San Diego, U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents say.

Rescuers found the women but could not revive two of them, agents say. The third died during lifesaving efforts. Because of the storm, agents were not able to retrieve their bodies Monday.

Read more:
https://www.sacbee.com/news/california/article240230966.html#storylink=cpy

The post Three women freeze to death in California mountains, agents say appeared first on Ice Age Now.

via Ice Age Now

https://ift.tt/2HsP8H4

February 17, 2020 at 10:59AM