Data from the Diamond Princess cruise suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people and not as deadly as we think.
Here are excerpts from an article by Jeremy Samuel Faust entitled COVID-19 Isn’t As Deadly As We Think.
“The most straightforward and compelling evidence that the true case fatality rate of SARS-CoV-2 is well under 1 percent comes not from statistical trends and methodological massage, but from data from the Diamond Princess cruise…
“A quarantined boat is an ideal—if unfortunate—natural laboratory to study a virus.
“In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day, or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. A significant fraction of these deaths results from diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe COVID-19 cases.
“During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around 25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent. Most deaths occurred in Hubei province, an area in which lung cancer and emphysema/COPD are significantly higher than national averages in China, a country where half of all men smoke.
“This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus (which, considering the confines, conditions, and how contagious this virus appears to be, is surprisingly low).
“On the Diamond Princess, six deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 0.85 percent…. The most important insight is that all six fatalities occurred in patients who are more than 70 years old. Not a single Diamond Princess patient under age 70 has died.
“(In other words) The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.
“In the early days of the crisis in Wuhan, China, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. New reports from the World Health Organization that estimate the global death rate of COVID-19 to be 3.4 percent, higher than previously believed, is not cause for further panic.
“… another thing that’s worth remembering: These patients (on the Diamond Princess) were likely exposed repeatedly to concentrated viral loads (which can cause worse illness). Some treatments were delayed. So even the lower CFR found on the Diamond Princess could have been even lower, with proper protocols. It’s also worth noting that … many patients with chronic illnesses go on cruises.
“This all suggests that COVID-19 is a relatively benign disease for most young people, and a potentially devastating one for the old and chronically ill, albeit not nearly as risky as reported.”
“Lets figure out how to help seniors and the immuno suppressed stay healthy.”
See entire excellent article:
https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html
Thanks to Stephen Bird for this link
Note: I, Robert, think we have unnecessarily gone into panic mode over the coronavirus. With that said, please don’t get me wrong. I am a senior, and I don’t take it lightly that we seniors are more at risk. There’s a strong likelihood that I will not be going on a cruise anytime soon.
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March 9, 2020 at 06:36AM
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