Italy has had 3,400 COVID-19 deaths. They average nearly 23,000 flu deaths per year.

Investigating the impact of influenza on excess mortality in all ages in Italy during recent seasons (2013/14–2016/17 seasons) – ScienceDirect

Flu typically rises exponentially, and then drops off nearly as fast once everyone is exposed, or the behavior of the virus changes due to weather, etc.  This time, government will claim it was their draconian actions which caused it to fall.

Spanish flu – Wikipedia

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