Coronavirus: Signs of peaks in the West

Good. Real signs of the flattening of new daily case in Italy. Rest to follow soon hopefully. But now is not the time to ease up. Instead, ponder that if Italy didn’t slow the spread the 6,000 new cases on March 21 would have become more like 20,000 new cases daily by now.

Italy appears to have peaked — starting on March 21st.

On March 9th when Italy had about 9,000 cases, and 500 deaths, the government declared a quarantine across the whole nation. By March 11 everything that could be shut down, was. These changes appear, finally, to have stopped the exponential growth in new cases about 10 days later. But even after three weeks of lockdown there are still 5000 extra people getting infected every day.

In the three weeks since the nationwide quarantine was called, the cases expanded from 9,000 to 100,000, and deaths increased from 500 to 10,000.

Numbers and graphs from Worldmeter

Italy

Spain — may be peaking now.

Too early to tell.

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France is still rising

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The UK is expecting numbers to rise rapidly in the next two weeks

“It was announced today one in […]