My new article How to re-open the country and control COVID-19 #coronavirus is published by WUWT. Some of the main points:

It is necessary to measure percentage of infected and immune individuals in the population, in all age groups and many locations. That requires regular random testing, similar to polling or surveys. Traditional Sentinel Surveillance programs, relying on reporting by physicians, are not applicable to COVID-19. (An EU example)

States and counties with small COVID-19 infection level should lift most restrictions on Monday, rather than waiting until the number of new cases begins to decrease. In these ares, this number will continue increasing one way or another.

One size doesn’t fit all. COVID-19 is dangerous to older (65+) and ill people. They need more protection. Young (<50) and healthy crowd is largely safe. They should not be burdened with restrictions designed for more vulnerable groups and applied to everybody as the lowest common denominator. Opening schools is a necessary condition for normalization.

I consider that a Go-Stop-Go normalization strategy allow for better control of the disease and faster normalization, than gradual lifting restrictions. Go-Stop-Go means lifting a large chunk of restrictions for a pre-defined short period (2-5 days), restoring the previous regime (subject to the Constitutional limitations) for another 5-9 days to evaluate the impact, then lifting them again.

CoV2, the coronavirus causing COVID-19, is a novel zoonotic virus. However mild at this time, it might mutate into a lethal strain. It has not explored its “viable mutations space,” unlike old human coronaviruses. Thus, monitoring and preparedness to highly lethal outbreaks are paramount. That requires opening the economics.

Anyway, no government in the US has authority to order mass house arrests or lockdowns.

It might be beneficial for more people to naturally gain immunity to CoV2.

via Science Defies Politics

https://ift.tt/2Vlq2St

April 17, 2020 at 06:04PM