Guest “NFW!” by David Middleton

How Working From Home Will Impact Oil Demand Forever
By Michael Kern – Apr 23, 2020

It’s day 33 for me. I leave the house to walk the dog and occasionally swing by the corner store. But that’s about it. I haven’t ridden in a car since March 20th, nor a bus or any form of transportation other than my bicycle. I’m sure I’m not alone, and it’s got me thinking. How exactly has this lockdown impacted oil demand? And perhaps more importantly, will this way of life become somewhat of a new normal?

Most articles mention that COVID-19 has had a devastating impact on the demand for crude oil. 

[…]

Before, about 5 percent of Americans had the luxury of being able to work from home. Now, more than 30 percent of the country is logging in from their couch instead of pouring up a to-go coffee and rushing out the door every morning. And though this lockdown has some of us clawing at the walls, desperate to go back to the office, or at least have some change in scenery, the cat is out of the bag. 

Workers and companies alike now see that it’s actually possible to be productive remotely. For employers, this means savings. Cheaper offices, no more mileage checks, no more stocking up on gallons upon gallons of coffee….you get the picture. For workers, well, for most, it means one thing and one thing only: no more commute. 

[…]

So back to my original thought, what if “when this is all over” things don’t just return to what they once were? The world is grappling with a (hopefully) once-in-a-lifetime crisis, and surely it won’t be that easy for many people to simply dive right back into the mix, sitting in a small box for hours upon hours every week. So where will that leave oil? 

We’ve heard “lower for longer” oil prices before…right before they jumped back up into the $60-70 range. But what if this is the real deal? Could COVID-19 potentially be a catalyst in a series of events that leads to peak oil demand? Or will demand recover to pre-crisis levels? 

Oil Price Dot Com

Where do I start?

Before, about 5 percent of Americans had the luxury of being able to work from home. Now, more than 30 percent of the country is logging in from their couch…

Professional blogger

I think it’s about 37% of Americans who have been able to work from home, to varying extent and effectiveness. Professional bloggers probably have no problem “logging on from their couch.” For most of us with real jobs, it has been less than ideal. It’s been OK for me; but not as productive as I would have been at the office.

That said, it’s been far worse for the roughly 26 million Americans who have lost their jobs since much of America was placed under house arrest. This is what the Communist Chinese virus has done to Texas:

For every confirmed ChiCom-19 case, 46 Texans have applied for unemployment benefits. For every death even tangentially related to ChiCom-19, 1,439 Texans have applied for unemployment benefits. Government officials from the State to county to local levels have shut our economy down in an effort to prevent the hospitals from becoming overloaded: Mission, to the extent it was even necessary, accomplished…

Texas Statewide Hospitalization Data as of 4/27 at 9:30AM CST
Hospital data	Count
Lab Confirmed COVID-19 Patients Currently in Texas Hospitals	1,563
Total Texas Staffed Hospital Beds	51,979
Available Texas Hospital Beds	20,277
Available Texas ICU Beds	2,147
Available Texas Ventilators	6,045

Our hospitals never came close to becoming overloaded. However, the Texas Workforce Commission was, and still is, overloaded with people filing unemployment claims.

Despite the fact that much of Texas’ working and school aged population has been under house arrest, 81% of the cases were among ages 0-64.

Age of Confirmed Cases as of 4/27 at 9:30 AM CST
Age	Count	Percentage
<1 year	17	0.3%
1-9 years	45	0.9%
10-19 years	122	2.5%
20-29 years	689	14.0%
30-39 years	842	17.1%
40-49 years	948	19.2%
50-59 years	906	18.4%
60-64 years	409	8.3%	80.7%
65-69 years	293	5.9%
70-74 years	209	4.2%
75-79 years	142	2.9%
80+ years	279	5.7%
Unknown	29	0.6%
Total	4,930	100.0%

But 76% of the fatalities have been among people age 65 and older.

Age of Confirmed Fatalities as of 4/27 at 9:30 AM CST
Age	Count	Percentage
<1 year	0	0.0%
1-9 years	0	0.0%
10-19 years	0	0.0%
20-29 years	3	0.9%
30-39 years	6	1.9%
40-49 years	15	4.7%
50-59 years	30	9.4%
60-64 years	19	6.0%	23.0%
65-69 years	42	13.2%
70-74 years	30	9.4%
75-79 years	31	9.7%
80+ years	140	44.0%	76.4%
Unknown	2	0.6%
Grand Total	318	100.0%

In Dallas County, about 40% of the fatalities “have been associated with long-term care facilities.” Locking down the economy didn’t help these people. Locking it down tighter, faster of for a longer period of time wouldn’t have helped them either.

For employers, this means savings. Cheaper offices, no more mileage checks, no more stocking up on gallons upon gallons of coffee….you get the picture.

Professional blogger

No. I really don’t “get the picture.” Most companies that have”offices,” either own or lease space for those offices in office buildings and they have generally invested a fair bit of money in their office space. While professional bloggers might not need anything more than a laptop, WiFi and a couch to professionally blog… That’s not really adequate for most jobs. If it was, our employers, who are always looking to save money, would have just had us work from home in the first place. Regarding “stocking up on gallons upon gallons of coffee,” if that was a significant cost of doing business, the break room would be devoid of coffee and just about everything else.

So back to my original thought, what if “when this is all over” things don’t just return to what they once were?

Professional blogger

The State of Texas actually began reopening last week, with so-called non-essential businesses being allowed to reopen if they can do curbside pickup. The official reopening is this Friday, when many businesses, including restaurants, will be able to reopen with strict social distancing measures. The City of Colleyville jumped the gun by a week and gave us a sneak peak at what will happen “when this is all over”…

North Texans head to Colleyville as the city lifts restrictions on restaurants, other businesses
By Dionne Anglin Published 3 days ago Colleyville FOX 4

COLLEYVILLE, Texas – The city of Colleyville has moved forward with relaxing restrictions on businesses and churches before Tarrant County and the state of Texas do the same.

“You know what, I’m just glad to be out here. All I had was queso, hot sauce, and chips,“ Hugh Hunt said.

The food, however impressive, was not the biggest incentive for folks flocking to this patio spot for lunch in Colleyville.

“Somebody finally got the message, we’ve got to get back to normal,” Camilla Puckett said.

“We drove all the way from Rockwall, which is the other side of Dallas, to just come over here and eat in Colleyville, support what they were doing. Excited about getting to eat out again honestly,” Steve Swofford said.

[…]

The Swoffords said that in their opinion, the economy has suffered enough from restrictions brought on by COVID-19.

“We feel it’s safe right here as we do at Walmart. In fact, they’ve done a great job of spreading out,” Brenda Swofford said. “As we came in, they assured us of the safeguards they’ve put in place.“

Some are saying it more radically than others.

“I have not bought into any of this stuff we’ve been going through. I don’t think we should’ve ever been shut down. I’m thankful we are finally getting to come out and do what we normally do and go to stores and live a normal life,” Hunt said.

Fox4News

When Dionne Anglin reported this story on TV the other day, she was actually wearing safety glasses, but no mask… Go figure.

The world is grappling with a (hopefully) once-in-a-lifetime crisis, and surely it won’t be that easy for many people to simply dive right back into the mix, sitting in a small box for hours upon hours every week. So where will that leave oil? 

Professional Blogger

The first question should be: “So where will that leave the people?” If their office is reopening, and they stay home, the people find themselves looking for jobs as professional bloggers.

So where will that leave oil?

Professional Blogger

It depends on how many people take up professional blogging. If enough people stay home, it will leave oil in the ground. If enough people go back to work, it will cause more oil to come out of the ground. The company I work for in Houston will start staging the office back open next week. While I like blogging, when the company says they would like me back at the office, I’ll be there. I have a hunch that most other people with real jobs will also go back to work… Because very few of us are working from home by choice. Consumption of petroleum products sharply declined because government officials shut down huge swaths of our economy.

U.S. consumption of petroleum products has fallen to its lowest level in decades because of measures that limit travel and because of the general economic slowdown induced by mitigation efforts for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates the decline in petroleum product demand by examining the changes in total product supplied, EIA’s proxy for consumption. As outlined in EIA’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report, published yesterday, total petroleum demand averaged 14.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in the week ending April 17, up slightly from 13.8 million b/d in the previous week—the lowest level in EIA’s weekly data series, which dates back to the early 1990s. The most recent value is 31% lower than the 2020 average from January through March 13, or before many of the travel restrictions began.

US EIA

Consumption has actually rebounded ever so slightly over the past couple of weeks…

Where will oil demand and prices be next month? Six months from now? Next year? It depends on how quickly our economy is allowed to reopen. The Energy Information Administration’s most recent Short Term Energy Outlook projected that consumption will be back to normal by Q3 2020.

With prices returning to “survivable” levels by early 2021…

We’ll see what the May STEO looks like in a couple of weeks. Until then…

What’s in a name?

I have noticed quite a few comments complaining about by use of “ChiCom-19” instead of whatever the scientific name of the Kung Flu is. I don’t read the comments to other guest authors’ posts very often, so I don’t know if this is the case for Christopher Monckton’s use of “Chinese virus” or Rud Istvan’s “Wuhan #coronavirus.”

I have two three questions;

1. Do “Chinese virus” and “Wuhan #coronavirus” draw similar complaints?
2. If not, is it the “Com” part of ChiCom-19 that irks concern trolls?
3. Why are concern trolls so troubled with offending Communists?

Sergeant Muldoon clearly was not a concern troll.

Dallas County ChiCom-19 Updates

They will be back in a future post. I am gathering more data at the County, State and Federal level.