by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week — climate science & policy
High climate sensitivity in CMIP6 model not supported by paleoclimate [link]
“Impacts of landscape changes on local and regional climate: a systematic review” Cao et al 2020. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10980-020-01015-7…
“Nature’s Contributions to Adaptation”: https://tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/26395916.2020.1754919…
Four theories of the Madden Julian Oscillation [link]
NEW paleoclimate records from Europe, Scandinavia-Russia, China, and USA https://notrickszone.com/2020/04/27/new-northern-hemisphere-temperature-reconstructions-are-devoid-of-michael-mann-like-hockey-sticks/
A new 411 BCE to 2016 tree ring temperature record from the northeastern US shows no such hockey stick exists. https://harvardforest1.fas.harvard.edu/sites/harvardforest.fas.harvard.edu/files/publications/pdfs/Pearl_QuatSciRev_2019.pdf
A new study affirms Northern Eurasia (Sweden, Yamal) has warmed 3 to 6 times SLOWER in the 20th century than during the 4th, 15th and 19th centuries. 1900s-2000s warming: 0.37°C to 0.85°C/100 yrs Roman, Medieval, 1800s warming: 1.37°C to 3.31°C/100 yrs https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-020-05179-5
Publication of the Temperature 12k database https://rdcu.be/b3y6w the most comprehensive compilation of quality-controlled, multi-proxy temperature time series from 470 terrestrial and 209 marine sites globally.
Policy
The Climate Club: how to fix a failing global effort [link]
Systemic Misuse of Scenarios in Climate Research and Assessment https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3581777…
Why coal phaseout is a ‘no-regret’ plan for tackling climate change https://j.mp/2ykUQK2
Managing deep uncertainty: exploratory modeling, adaptive plans and joint sense making [link]
IPCC baseline scenarios over-project CO2 emissions and economic growth [link]
documenting changes in meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought in the CMIP6 forcing scenarios! https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2019EF001461…
Lomborg:. Welfare in the 21st century: Increasing development, reducing inequality, the impact of climate change and the cost of climate policies. https://sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162520304157?casa_token=NRkZBctJY6wAAAAA:90tDKISLWFhLsG7I7ykmv03T7Pzs0-igMS2GMOqcU5IdveWUWU9IlZR8gKbgYGuDlJuwiBYAlvI
“…in a closely watched case with extensive implications, the Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that the federal Clean Water Act applies to pollution of underground water that flows into nearby lakes, streams, and bays…” [link]
The Netherlands become an agricultural giant by showing what the future of farming could look like [link]
A global food system is a less vulnerable system [link]
Using more realistic scenarios and assigning probabilities is not a robust basis for a climate risk assessment. Approaches for decision making under @deepuncertainty provide an alternative. https://go.nature.com/2Vrlp9o
Michael Schellenberger on Michael Moore’s new documentary Planet of the Humans [link]
Between complacency and panic [link]
Managing California’s wildfire risk [link]
“If this [a 5% drop in global carbon emissions] is all we get from shutting the entire world down, it illustrates the scope and scale of the climate challenge, which is fundamentally changing the way we make and use energy and products” [link]
By bringing already available technologies and techniques into wider use, we could avoid nearly 40% of the methane the world is projected to emit by 2050. https://ensia.com/notable/methane-greenhouse-gas-climate-change/…
About science and scientists
The threat to academic freedom . . . from academics [link]
Overlooked no more: Eunice Foote, climate scientist forgotten to history [link]
Frank Ramsey: The man who thought too fast [link]
Rules of thumb for evaluating statistical models [link]
Rising CO2 will make us stupider [link]
the Superior Court of D.C. granted motions from the National Academy of Sciences & researcher Christopher Clack, each seeking awards of attorneys fees and costs, in a case involving Stanford professor Mark Jacobson that dates back to a 2017 PNAS paper. [link]
The Verdict is in: courtrooms seldom overrule bad science [link]
An ideological asymmetry among academic philosophers: left-leaning philosophers reported greater willingness to discriminate against their right-leaning colleagues (e.g., in hiring, paper reviews) than right-leaning philosophers reported in regards to their left-leaning peers [link]
Natural variability or climate change? Exploring stakeholder and citizen perceptions of extreme event attribution https://authors.elsevier.com/a/1asI%7E3Q8oQ2z6Z…
V. interesting retrospective on the D-Day weather forecast of 1944 https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0311.1
Cognitive biases: Mistakes or missing stakes? [link]
via Climate Etc.
May 2, 2020 at 01:59PM
Iowa Climate Science Education 