Where are the excess deaths?

“There are no “excess deaths” of any statistical significance except for Texas and Michigan.”
– TRM
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“Where are the excess deaths?

TRM

Hear hear!!! (In response to “We are NOT all in this together!!”) Well said. If there was ever an “us and them” moment this is it. Since this is all done with the justification that they must do this due to the “deadly” SARS-Cov-2 virus and the COVID-19 named after it, where are the excess deaths?

I’ve looked up year to date deaths from the CDC site for the first 16 weeks and the average annual deaths for 9 states so far.

In some online discussions some were suggesting using “excess deaths” to see what effect the Covid-19 disease is having and I thought that would be a reasonable approach as it gets past the deaths “with/from” issue.

Using these numbers there are no “excess deaths” of any statistical significance except for Texas and Michigan, which are about 10% above average. This makes the case for lockdown at all, much less continuing, dodgy at best.

New York: Expected 50,319 / Actual 39,005
Georgia: Expected 27,699 / Actual 27,161
Illinois: Expected 36,138 / Actual 37,870
Texas: Expected 60,408 / Actual 66,071
Washington: Expected 19,599 / Actual 19,270
Oregon: Expected 12,028 / Actual 11,834
Florida: Expected 66,462 / Actual 68,427
Michigan: Expected 32,306 / Actual 35,598
Pennsylvania: Expected 44,029 / Actual 37,383

All 2020 deaths year to date are from this CDC page:
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html
Click the state and then go through weeks 1 to 16 and then get the “Total Deaths” from the bottom right.

New York: 150,959 yearly deaths (2013-16) expected average for 4 months = 50,319 https://apps.health.ny.gov/public/tabvis/PHIG_Public/lcd/reports/#state

Georgia: 83,098 yearly deaths (2017) expected average for 4 months = 27,699
https://www.statista.com/statistics/241581/births-and-deaths-in-the-us-by-state/

Illinois: 108,414 yearly deaths (2015-18) expected average for 4 months = 36,138
https://dph.illinois.gov/data-statistics/vital-statistics/death-statistics

Texas: 181,226 yearly deaths (2012-15) expected average for 4 months = 60,408
https://dshs.texas.gov/chs/vstat/annrpts.shtm

Washington: 55,796 yearly deaths (2015-18) expected average for 4 months = 19,599
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/Pubs/422-099-2018-2010-VitalStatHighlights.pdf

Oregon: 36,085 yearly deaths (2015-18) expected average for 4 months = 12,028
https://www.oregon.gov/oha/PH/BIRTHDEATHCERTIFICATES/VITALSTATISTICS/ANNUALREPORTS/VOLUME2/Pages/index.aspx

Florida: 199,385 yearly deaths (2015-18) expected average for 4 months = 66,462
http://www.flpublichealth.com/VSBOOK/pdf/2018/vscomp.pdf

Michigan: 96,919 yearly deaths (2015-18) expected average for 4 months = 32,306
https://www.mdch.state.mi.us/pha/osr/deaths/causRScnty.asp

Pennsylvania: 132,088 yearly deaths (2014-17) expected average for 4 months = 44,029
https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/HealthStatistics/VitalStatistics/DeathStatistics/Documents/Death_AgeSexRaceYear_PA_2013_2017.pdf

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