Unprecedented? No, Liz, Go Away & Check The Facts

By Paul Homewood

https://twitter.com/rharrabin/status/1266390707356524544?s=11

This comment from Liz Bentley popped up in yesterday’s BBC’s hysterical piece about a nice, sunny spring.

It is the sort of statement that is difficult to disprove (how can you prove that nothing has happened?), but which sounds credible to those unaware of the facts.

And, of course, coming from the Head of the Royal Met Society, it has the voice of authority. Surely she knows all of the facts?

Well, weather such as this is not “unprecedented” or “concerning”, so why has she said it is?

I have looked at the monthly rainfall figures in England, which the Met Office now extend back to 1862. The following graph plots the 100 driest and 100 wettest months:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series

On the face of it, there is no evidence at all that rainfall is becoming more extreme in England, either wetter or drier. The whole record is full of extreme wet and dry months in most years.

In the last ten years, there have been eleven entries, an average of 1.1 a year, compared to the full dataset average of 1.58. This splits into six wet and five dry.

As for the sudden switch rounds from wet to dry, and vice versa, we only have to look back at 1865 to find the same thing happening then. In September that year, only 13.4mm of rain fell, making it the second driest September in the whole record. A month later, 169.1mm fell, making that the second wettest October.

The whole series is full of similar occurrences.

The existence of high pressure blocking, as we have seen this spring, is nothing new either. Back in May 1980, this article appeared in The Times: