By Paul Homewood
h/t Joe Public
May was the sunniest calendar month on record, and spring was the sunniest spring, the Met Office has said.
The UK enjoyed 266 hours of sunshine in May – surpassing the previous record of 265 hours in June 1957.
And it is even more extraordinary following a drenching winter, with record rain in February.
Meteorologists say they are amazed at the sudden switch from extreme wet to extreme dry – it is not "British" weather.
On average the UK gets 436 hours of sunshine between March and the end of May.
Since 1929, only 10 years have had more than 500 hours. And none has got more than 555 hours.
Scientists say the recent weather in the UK has been unprecedented and astounding.
This year we’ve bathed in an extraordinary 626 hours – smashing the previous record by a “staggering” amount, one Met Office worker said.
It is because the jet stream has locked the fine weather in place, just as it locked the previous winter rainfall in place.
Professor Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, told BBC News: “We’ve swung from a really unsettled spell with weather systems coming in off the Atlantic to a very, very settled spell.
“It’s unprecedented to see such a swing from one extreme to the other in such a short space of time. That’s what concerns me. We don’t see these things normally happening with our seasons.
“It’s part of a pattern where we’re experiencing increasingly extreme weather as the climate changes.”
Mark McCarthy, from the Met Office, said: “If we look at the difference in rainfall that’s fallen over the winter compared to spring it is the largest difference in rainfall amount in our national series from 1862.
“The sunshine statistics are really astounding.
“The stand out is by how much sunshine has broken the previous record – set in 1948. There’s been more sunshine than most of our past summer seasons. It’s quite remarkable."
One of his colleagues described the figures as "absolutely staggering".
The Met Office says this year is not an indicator of the future, because the jet stream might behave differently.
Scientists suspect man-made climate change may be implicated, but it is too soon to tell.
Some of them believe the rapid man-made heating of the Arctic, which has led to record temperatures and wildfires in Siberia, may be influencing the jet stream, although that is not proven.
Professor Joe Smith, chief executive of the Royal Geographical Society, told BBC News: "For many people, the recent long sunny spell is simply ‘nice weather’.
"In a wider context it’s a signal of the increasing unpredictability of the UK’s climate. Planning for the growing season is starting to resemble a night at the gambling tables.
“The fact remains that bold early actions to slash emissions can still cut the larger risks associated with climate change in the UK and around the world”.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-52877912
Is it climate change, or just weather? Indeed, is it even unprecedented?
Not according to the data for England at least:
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Rainfall/date/UK.txt
The biggest differential between winter and spring rainfall occurred in 1990, when it was both wetter in winter and drier in spring than this year.
The differential was also greater than this year as long ago as 1915, which had a much wetter winter. The pattern is the same for the UK as a whole, though this year’s differential was marginally greater than in 1915 and 1990.
Nevertheless, if the current weather in England is not unprecedented, then it clearly cannot be the result of climate change.
Moreover the long term data shows no evidence of this year’s phenomenon becoming more common. Instead this year is clearly just an outlier. There are of course hundreds of permutations from which unusual events can be plucked if you try hard enough.
We already know that winter rainfall was not exceptionally high in England, ranking tenth since 1862/3.
As for this spring, it has not even been the driest on record, only the fourth driest in England (and fifth in the UK). The driest spring was way back in 1893. Again there is no evidence that springs are getting drier.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series
Harrabin evidently has some new useful lackeys to go to to support his hysterical outpourings. We already know about Liz Bentley, who makes assertions that are not supported by the facts.
Now we can add Joe Smith of the RGS to the list. He ludicrously claims that in a wider context it’s a signal of the increasing unpredictability of the UK’s climate. Planning for the growing season is starting to resemble a night at the gambling tables.
Again there is not one scintilla of evidence to back this up. In terms of rainfall, large year-on year variability has always been the norm. Nevertheless, with no justification, he tells us we must all drastically reduce emissions.
I wonder what difference that will make to spring weather in England?
The nonsense about all of this being caused by “Arctic warming” is just that – pure speculation which does not even deserve to be mentioned.
Indeed Harrabin inadvertently lets the cat out of the bag when he says:
It is because the jet stream has locked the fine weather in place, just as it locked the previous winter rainfall in place.
In other words, there has not been a massive swing in meteorological conditions, quite the opposite in fact. The only difference between winter and spring is that the jet stream moves polewards as summer approaches, thus bringing high pressure to the British Isles instead of low.
No doubt, if it had been an unusually dry winter, Harrabin would have jumping up and down, blaming that on global warming as well!
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June 2, 2020 at 12:48PM
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