Covid discussion thread: Part VIII

by Judith Curry

Interesting papers that I’ve recently spotted

COVID-19 can last for several months [link]

At present, the evidence is pointing tentatively to a chain of person-to-person infections occurring somewhere outside a city before somebody brought the virus to Wuhan, where the market acted as an amplifier: http://mattridley.co.uk/blog/where-did-the-virus-come-from/

Could the key to Covid be found in the Russian pandemic of 1889-90? [link]

Blood group type may affect susceptibility to COVID19 [link]

Discussing the Need for Reliable Antibody Testing for COVID-19 https://directorsblog.nih.gov/2020/06/04/discussing-the-need-for-reliable-antibody-testing-for-covid-19/…

Ex-head of MI6 Sir Richard Dearlove says coronavirus ‘is man-made’ and was ‘released by accident’ – after seeing ‘important’ scientific report https://mol.im/a/8386235

first randomized trial of convalescent plasma https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2766943…

Genes may leave some people more vulnerable to severe Covid-19 [link]

Retraction Watch: Retracted COVID-19 papers [link]

Measuring #SARSCoV2 levels in municipal sewage almost perfectly predicts forthcoming #COVID19 cases with a full week’s notice (R=0.994). https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.19.20105999v1.full.pdf….

What do blood clots, strokes, heart attacks, and covid toes have in common? Blood vessels. I dive into the research suggesting #covid19 isn’t just a respiratory disease, it’s a vascular infection [link]

25-Hydroxyvitamin D Concentrations Are Lower in Patients with Positive PCR for SARS-CoV-2 [link]

First Results from Human COVID-19 Immunology Study Identify Universally Effective Antibodies [link]

How coronavirus lockdowns stopped flu in its tracks: https://go.nature.com/2APRbF0

The fat-tail phenomenon of pandemics, dating back to 429 BC and including #COVID19, is vital to recognize but tail-risk is largely ignored in current epidemiological models https://nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x…

New study finds Covid19 patients are no longer infectious after 11 days of getting sick even though some may still test positive. The data from Singapore adds to a growing body of evidence showing people don’t transmit the infection once they’re recovered. [link]

Hydroxychloroquine

The Lancet has made one of the biggest retractions in modern history. How could this happen? [link]

Today, three of the authors have retracted “Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis” Read the Retraction notice and statement from The Lancet https://hubs.ly/H0r7gh50

Raoult points out that a study in India which found that hydroxychloroquine works as a prophylaxis actually confirmed Covid-19 with PCR. The Minnesota study published yesterday in NEJM did not. [link]

new RCT study for hydroxychloroquine as a prophylaxis. [link]

NEJM: Hydroxychloroquine for the prevention of COVID19 – searching for evidence [link]

For a detailed discussion of likely COVID-19 IFR, see this up-to-date meta-analysis: https://medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.03.20089854v3

higher viral load and prolonged viral shedding results in longer and more complex clinical course for Covid-19. “Early treatment with hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin resulted in a 95% success rate with no mortality.” [link]

WHO set to resume hyroxychloroquine trial in battle on COVID-19 [link]

The Lancet’s politicized science on antimalarial drugs [link]

A mysterious company’s coronavirus papers in top medical journals may be unraveling [link]

The Association of American Physicians & Surgeons (AAPS) has sued the FDA to End Its arbitrary restrictions on HCQ. [link]

New study from India of hydroxychloroquine as a prophylaxis finds that taking six or more doses reduced the risk of coronavirus in healthcare workers by 80%. [link]

Update on the bizarre Surgisphere COVID data base saga [link]

A study out of thin air [link]

How Turkey is beating Covid-19: Chief doctor Nurettin Yiyit – says a key is to use HCQ early. “Other countries are using this drug too late, especially the US. We only use it at the beginning… We believe it’s effective because we get the results.” [link]

France becomes first country to ban hydroxychloroquine as a coronavirus treatment http://hill.cm/JSkrzDf

Contrary to the advice of the WHO, India is expanding its use of hydroxychloroquine. [link]

Indonesia, major advocate of HXQ, told by WHO to stop using it [link]

Dr. Harvey Risch, Professor at the Yale School of Medicine, explains why he supports early use of HCQ-AZ for covid-19. [link]

Policy

Governments and WHO changed COVID-19 policy based on suspect data from tiny US company [link]

The NYT set out more than a month ago to confront a critical question raised by public health experts worldwide as the coronavirus pandemic spread across the US, killing more than 100,000: What Happened to the CDC? [link]

how China hid details of the coronavirus and created a pandemic. https://abcn.ws/305GtVo

NYC’s urban model faces existential crisis in post-pandemic world [link]

Suddenly, public health officials say social justice is more important than social distancing [link]

Sir David Norgrove has today replied to @MattHancock, Secretary of State for Health and Social Care regarding the Government’s COVID-19 testing data http://ow.ly/pw4c50zWpO8

In future crises, let people make their own decisions [link]

Masks provide a critical barrier in limiting the spread of #COVID19, reducing the number of infectious viruses in exhaled breath, especially of asymptomatic people and those with mild symptoms, say @kprather88 and colleagues in this Perspective. https://fcld.ly/u9ylfmd

The lack of evidence lockdowns actually worked is a world scandal. There is still not a shred of real proof that the planet’s reckless stay-at-home experiment made any difference [link]

Why no one can explain the drop in Israel’s COVID-19 cases [link]

Americans aren’t getting the advice they need [link]

The ultimate legacy of the pandemic could be a broad erosion of trust in authorities, endangering public-health efforts into the future, [link]

Is the “science” behind the lockdown any good? http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2020/05/21/1590091709000/It-s-all-very-well–following-the-science—but-is-the-science-any-good–/…

Norwegian Study using actual data says COVID lock down wasn’t necessary. [link]

Some countries have brought COVID cases down to nearly zero. How did they do it? [link]

Japan ends coronavirus emergency with 850 deaths and no lockdowns [link]

When a Covid-19 vaccine becomes available, who should get it first? https://statnews.com/2020/05/23/when-a-covid-19-vaccine-becomes-available-who-should-get-it-first/…

600 physicians say lockdowns are a ‘mass casualty event’ [link]

Flexibility needed in response to COVID [link]

Sociology

Let’s hear scientists with different Covid-19 views, not attack them [link]