By Paul Homewood

A quick look now at the second core scenario of the Future Energy Scenarios, named “System Transformation”, essentially the high hydrogen option:

FES main report

Electricity consumption is about a fifth down on the Consumer Transformation scenario, which we looked at the other day. However the electricity mix is similar with a heavy reliance on wind power.

The big difference is the reliance on hydrogen for a half of final energy consumption. Of this, 89% of the hydrogen is produced by steam reforming from natural gas.

Electrolysis is regarded as no more than a niche operation, mopping up surplus wind power for use in aviation and shipping, partly because of its greater purity. This rather puts the kybosh on some of the exaggerated claims made about electrolysis recently.

According to the FES, steam reforming is favoured not only because of its lower cost, but also because of the need for a reliable, large scale supply. Demand will be much greater in winter, which will necessitate ramping up of steam reforming production in addition to seasonal storage in salt caverns.

The FES document brings up some interesting facts about hydrogen:

1) Natural gas consumption will still remain substantial in 2050, at 651 Twh, compared to the current 877 TWh.

2) Converting gas to hydrogen is an extremely energy inefficient process. Natural gas input of 654 TWh only produces 527 TWh of hydrogen, a loss of 20%. In my view, that is extremely optimistic, given that carbon capture would also have to be added.

3) Currently 71% of annual gas consumption is during Q1 and Q4:

 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/gas-section-4-energy-trends

FES suggest that steam reforming plants could double up output during these months, but this would involve massive inefficiencies during the rest of the year with plants semi idle.

Even with this, FES notes the need for seasonal storage, which the CCC estimated would cost £6bn a year.

4) The CCC have already estimated that the cost of producing hydrogen via steam reforming would cost £44/MWh, compared to an equivalent cost of £15/MWh for natural gas (wholesale).

With consumption of hydrogen projected at 563 TWh, this would potentially increase costs by £16.3bn a year. (A small amount of hydrogen goes to transport, so comparison would need to be made with diesel costs here.) This does not cover the one off cost of converting appliances and upgrading distribution networks.

Finally, it is worth looking at what FES has to say about HGVs:

Electrification is greatest in Consumer Transformation but is limited by high infrastructure costs for HGV charging facilities (such as catenary wires on motorways), and current weight and volume considerations mean batteries are not feasible for the largest vehicles.

An interesting statement, considering the report out this week about electrifying the motorways!

via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

https://ift.tt/2DlgJuU

July 30, 2020 at 05:42AM

From NASA

July 22, 2020 RELEASE 20-075

NASA’s Mars Perseverance Rover Passes Flight Readiness Review

NASA’s Mars 2020 Perseverance rover mission cleared its Flight Readiness Review Wednesday, an important milestone on its way to the launch pad. The meeting was an opportunity for the Mars 2020 team and launch vehicle provider United Launch Alliance to report on the readiness of the spacecraft, along with the Atlas V rocket, flight and ground hardware, software, personnel, and procedures. The daily launch window on Thursday, July 30, opens at 7:50 a.m. EDT.

“Our deepest thanks go to the many teams who have worked so hard to get Perseverance ready to fly during these challenging times,” said NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine. “This mission is emblematic of our nation’s spirit of meeting problems head-on and finding solutions together. The incredible science Perseverance will enable and the bold human missions it will help make possible are going to be inspirations for us all.”

“We’re pleased to be passing another milestone with the completion of the Flight Readiness Review,” said Matt Wallace, deputy project manager for the mission at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Southern California. “But we’ll keep our heads down through the final prelaunch activities and the opening of the launch window next week, until we’re certain this spacecraft is safely on its way. Mars is a tough customer, and we don’t take anything for granted.”

With all the connections between the spacecraft and Atlas V launch vehicle complete, the majority of business remaining for Mars 2020’s Assembly, Test, and Launch Operations (ATLO) team involves checking out every one of the multitude of systems and subsystems onboard the rover, aeroshell, cruise stage, and descent stage.

“NASA can’t wait to take the next steps on the surface of Mars with Perseverance,” said Lori Glaze, director of the Planetary Science Division at NASA Headquarters in Washington. “The science and technology of this mission are going to help us address major questions about the geologic and astrobiologic history of Mars that we’ve been working on for decades, and we’re excited to take the whole word with us on this journey.”

“At this point, the spacecraft has been powered on and will remain so around the clock,” said Dave Gruel, ATLO manager for Mars 2020. “The launch operations team will continue to monitor the health of the spacecraft to ensure it’s ‘Go’ for launch – nothing glamorous, but an important part of the job.”

The spacecraft and launch teams have one more major review to complete. Scheduled Monday, July 27, the Launch Readiness Review is the last significant checkup before the mission receives final approval to proceed with launch.

“At present, everything is green across the board,” said Wallace. “Everyone involved with this endeavor, from the spacecraft team to the launch vehicle team to those working the range, are looking forward to seeing Perseverance begin its long-awaited flight to Mars.”

Around 1 p.m. EDT on July 27, or approximately one hour after the Launch Readiness Review ends, the agency will hold a preflight news conference that will air live on NASA Television and the agency’s website.

Other prelaunch briefings also will take place July 27, and Tuesday, July 28. A full list of media briefings for the Mars 2020 mission launch is available here:

https://go.nasa.gov/39inOsn

In February 2020, NASA’s Perseverance Rover began its long journey to Mars by first traveling across the United States. The rover was built at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California and then carefully packed and flown to NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida. There, engineers integrated the rover with the spacecraft that carries it to Mars, and the Atlas V rocket chosen to send it on its way.Credits: NASA/JPL-Caltech

The Perseverance rover’s astrobiology mission will search for signs of ancient microbial life. It will also characterize the planet’s climate and geology, pave the way for human exploration of the Red Planet, and be the first planetary mission to collect and cache selected samples of Martian rock and regolith (broken rock and dust). Subsequent missions, currently under consideration by NASA in cooperation with ESA (European Space Agency), would send spacecraft to Mars to collect these cached samples from the surface and return them to Earth for in-depth analysis.

JPL, which is managed by Caltech in Pasadena, is building and will manage operations of Perseverance for NASA. The agency’s Launch Services Program, based at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida, is responsible for launch management. The Mars 2020 mission with its Perseverance rover are part of America’s larger Moon to Mars exploration approach that includes missions to the Moon as a way to prepare for human exploration of the Red Planet. Charged with sending the first woman and next man to the Moon by 2024, NASA will establish a sustained human presence on and around the Moon by 2028 through NASA’s Artemis program.

For more information about the Mars 2020 Perseverance mission, go to:

http://www.nasa.gov/perseverance

For more about NASA’s Moon to Mars plans, visit:

https://www.nasa.gov/topics/moon-to-mars

-end-

HT/Joel O’Bryan

Like this:

Like Loading…

Related

via Watts Up With That?

https://ift.tt/3f7ENPe

July 30, 2020 at 04:35AM

Using computer models to make climate predictions? All we can say is: good luck with that.
– – –
Providing annually-updated five-year climate predictions at global and continental scales is the focus of a new international science collaboration co-ordinated by the WMO and led by the UK’s Met Office.

For the first time, climate scientists have joined forces and resources to produce an annually-updated climate snapshot looking at the next five years.

Harnessing the best computer models from ten climate centres around the world, every year will produce a new climate prediction looking out to five years ahead.

Professor Adam Scaife is the head of long range prediction at the Met Office. He said: “This is an exciting new scientific capability. As human-induced climate change grows, it is becoming even more important for governments and decision makers to understand the current climate risks on an annually-updated basis.”

The development of near-term prediction capability has long been an aspiration of the World Meteorological Organization – a so-called grand challenge.

“This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – the enormous challenge ahead in meeting the Paris Agreement on Climate Change target of keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.

Full article here.

via Tallbloke’s Talkshop

https://ift.tt/2Ez8oEI

July 30, 2020 at 03:57AM

Censorship trumps everything else. Without free speech, there are no free elections, and no progress in politicized science. The base temptations of the human condition thrive in the dark.

Ten years too late, the House Judiciary Hearing on antitrust laws is on:

Republicans tear into big tech CEOs

Katelyn Caralle, Nikki Schwabm, The Daily Mail

For more than five hours the world’s richest man, Bezos; fourth-richest, Zuckerberg; CEO of the world’s most valued corporation, Cook; and its key search engine, Pichai; were repeatedly ripped as copycats, liars, bullies, drug dealers and traitors.

…big tech’s out to get conservatives. That’s not a suspicion, that’s not a hunch. That’s a fact,’ Representative Jim Jordan asserted at the top of his opening remarks.

‘We’re 97 days before an election, and the power – as the previous chairman and ranking member have said – the power these companies have to impact what happens during an election, what American citizens get to see before their voting, is pretty darn important,’ he said.

Trump issued an Executive Order to prevent social media giants from altering or editorializing free speech. He declared that if Congress won’t act, he […]

via JoNova

https://ift.tt/2X6P9sj

July 30, 2020 at 03:15AM