Month: July 2020

Arctic Ocean periodically ice-free 6000 to 7000 years ago

But let’s not forget, there was no human-produced CO2 6000-7000 years ago.
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Arctic Ocean periodically ice-free 6000 to 7000 years ago

Solar cycles, ocean currents, and volcanic heat are affecting Earth’s energy balance all the time, and always have.
Interested

1980 lies at the end-point of a well-known 30-year global cooling period which ran from about the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s.
During those three decades, some 20% of all the manmade CO2 ever produced (up to date), was emitted into the atmosphere.

Warming alarmists who maintain CO2 is the principal climate driver cannot reconcile the emission of nearly 100 gigatonnes of manmade CO2 coinciding with a corresponding period of cooling.

According to Alekseev et al. 2016 (and as you might expect after that 30 years of cooling) there was actually more Arctic sea ice in 1980 than at ANY other time during the 20th century.

So using that particular date as a starting point is useful if your aim is to accentuate the appearance of recent warming.

In any event, the Arctic ice cap is an intermittent feature. It comes and goes over millennia, and even over decades.

American nuclear submarines surfaced at an almost ice-free North Pole in 1959 and 1962. And yet by the 1999, the same region was an almost impenetrable field of sea ice.

Research into beach ridges on the northern coastline of Greenland show that 6000-7000 years ago the Arctic Ocean must have been periodically ice free all the way to the north pole for long periods of time.

But let’s not forget, there was no human-produced CO2 6000-7000 years ago.

Interestingly, according to the Danish Meteorological Institute, from 2006 to 2019 Arctic sea ice volume remained essentially constant (in fact a very slight rise may have occurred).

Once again, during this 13-year period around 20% of all the CO2 ever produced by humans was emitted into the atmosphere – and yet it had no effect on the Arctic ice cap.

So the volume of Arctic sea ice is irrelevant as far as human-induced ‘climate change’ is concerned. It comes and goes irrespective of our CO2 emissions. It’s clearly a natural variation.

Antarctic ice data is more difficult to track down but it’s understood that southern hemisphere sea ice increased strongly in the 40 years up to 2014, when it suddenly and inexplicably declined. (During that 40 years about 60% of all the CO2 ever produced by humans was emitted into the air. Yet the Antarctic sea ice grew.)

But in attempting to explain that sudden reduction in sea ice in recent years, it should be remembered that Western Antarctica and the West Antarctic Peninsula were only very recently discovered to be the home of the largest volcanic province on Earth.

In 2017 University of Edinburgh scientists identified 138 volcanoes, some as tall as 3,800 metres, buried under the ice. An increase in activity in this enormous volcanic province would doubtless be a significant factor affecting water temperature and sea ice.

So, this is why I and so many like me think it’s important that we set aside human CO2 from time to time and take a good look at the bigger picture.

Solar cycles, ocean currents, and volcanic heat are affecting Earth’s energy balance all the time, and always have.

Human influence, by comparison, is trivial and difficult even to detect.

None of the apocalyptic predictions of climate alarmism have eventuated. Not one.

The much-vaunted climate emergency therefore has no basis in science.

The post Arctic Ocean periodically ice-free 6000 to 7000 years ago appeared first on Ice Age Now.

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July 6, 2020 at 11:24AM

Two-Dimensional Football

Two-Dimensional Football

In order to protect the 85 year old professional footballers suffering from multiple co-morbidities, we now have two-dimensional football fans in the stadium. Anyone watching the game is watching on a two-dimensional screen in a remote location.

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July 6, 2020 at 09:01AM

Canada to Have Antibody Test Results in July

The national immunity task force has started testing thousands of blood samples for COVID-19 antibodies. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)

There’s a right way a wrong way to go about this  The USA demonstrates the wrong way, which is to conflate current cases of infection with numbers of people who recovered from a past infection.  Of course there is political power to be gained by scaring the citizenry into tolerating dictatorial behavior from elected officials or to sway presidential voting.  Let’s hope that this Canadian effort stays on track as described in the research design. The CBC article is 1st glimpse of Canada’s true COVID-19 infection rate expected mid-July from immunity testing.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds

Results elsewhere suggest infection rate higher than number of confirmed case

The national immunity task force has started testing thousands of blood samples for COVID-19 antibodies and should be able to produce a more detailed picture of how many Canadians have been infected with the novel coronavirus within a couple of weeks.

It will be much longer, however, before we know more about what kind of protection against future infection having the antibodies provides, said Dr. Timothy Evans, executive director of the COVID-19 Immunity Task Force.

Plus, he said, most of the people whose blood is being tested will not be informed of the results because of how the blood is being collected for testing.

There won’t be an opportunity for individuals to find out their status,” said Evans, who is also director of the McGill School of Population and Global Health in Montreal.

More than 105,000 Canadians have tested positive for COVID-19 since the coronavirus infection was identified in Canada in late January, while many others were sick but couldn’t get tested because provinces were limiting who could access the procedure until just a few weeks ago.

Evans also said a significant number of people get the infection and show no symptoms and will have no clue they were ever sick. Immunity testing in other countries has suggested the actual infection rate is 10 to 20 times more than the number of confirmed cases, he said.

There are multiple prongs to the task force’s plan to figure out the true infection rate here, starting with running antibody tests on 40,000 samples collected from people who donated blood to Canadian Blood Services and Hema Quebec since May. Evans said about 1,600 of those samples are being run through the test kits every day now, and analyses are already underway on the results.

“Hopefully within the next two weeks, we will have an initial first number,” he said.

The first results will reveal how many samples showed antibodies but will include no specifics, such as whether they are male or female or where they live.

“By the end of the month of July, we expect to have a more broken-down picture of what we call the seroprevalence, the presence of antibodies in the blood, that will look at it by age group and geographic location,” Evans said.

Evans said Canadian Blood Services can’t trace back the samples to the actual patients who gave them, so positive antibody tests will not be reported back for anyone who donated blood outside of Quebec. He said Hema Quebec said it might be possible to identify the patients but hasn’t yet decided if it will do so.

Another testing program is now beginning on 25,000 blood samples taken from pregnant women, using blood routinely drawn during the first trimester to screen for sexually transmitted infections and check for immunity to other illnesses, such as rubella. COVID-19 antibody testing will be added to that list for all pregnant women in Canada going back to December. The women will be informed if they test positive for COVID-19 antibodies, Evans said.

Evans said there are also about 30,000 blood samples held in provincial labs that are being tested for antibodies.

Together, he said, these projects can provide a piecemeal picture of the infection rate across the country, though it won’t be a truly representative sample until a national household survey can be run. That isn’t going to happen until the portable antibody tests become reliable, but a plan is being developed with Statistics Canada so it’s ready when the tests are.

We’d love to have a test that didn’t require a formal blood draw, but rather a pin prick, but we’re not quite there yet,” Evans said. “There’s some things on the horizon. We’re trying to get those validated quickly, but we still haven’t got what I would call a good portable test that could be used in the home.”

The tests the task force is using now require only a small amount of blood — less than 1/20th of a teaspoon, generally — but it is still more than what comes from a finger prick.

Evans said understanding how many people got infected can help drive policy decisions about where to vaccinate first and the impact specific public health measures might have had in some settings like long-term care centres, hospitals and schools, or communities that have been hit particularly hard.

The task force also has a two-year mandate to try to look at what kind of protection someone has from having antibodies, as well as how long the levels of antibodies last in a person’s blood. Evans said those studies are just getting underway and will take time, including looking to see whether people who have the antibodies get infected during a second or third wave of the pandemic.

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July 6, 2020 at 08:36AM

Duke Energy, Dominion abandon the $8 billion Atlantic Coast Pipeline

Despite their recent win in the Supreme Court three weeks ago, the companies involved in the project are throwing in the towel.

From The Charlotte Business Journal

The $8 billion, 600-mile long Atlantic Coast Pipeline is dead.

Dominion Energy Inc. and Duke Energy Corp. are canceling the project because of continuing court delays likely to drive the price tag higher. That would threaten the economic viability of the project, they say.

And bound up in the cancellation is Dominion’s decision, announced separately, to sell it gas transmission business to Berkshire Hathaway Energy for $4 billion in cash and the assumption of $5.7 billion in debt.

https://www.bizjournals.com/charlotte/news/2020/07/05/duke-energy-dominion-abandon-the-atlantic-coast-p.html

Endless lawfare from multiple directions is just making it too much of an uphill battle.

“This announcement reflects the increasing legal  uncertainty that overhangs largescale energy and industrial infrastructure development in the United States,” say Dominion CEO Tom Farrell, and CEO Lynn Good in a joint statement, speaking of the cancellation of the pipeline. “Until these issues are resolved, the ability to satisfy the country’s energy needs will be significantly challenged.”

Duke and Dominion specifically cite the April decision by a federal judge in Montana that vacated a key water permit for the controversial Keystone XL pipeline issued by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

Known as a Nationwide Permit 12, the permission to cross water bodies and wetlands was issued under an expedited process also used to permit the ACP. A decision by the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals at the end of May allowing the order to stand until it is heard on the merits threatened to delay the Duke and Dominion project for at least a year.

“The Montana district court decision is also likely to prompt similar challenges in other Circuits related to permits issued under the nationwide program including for ACP,” Duke and Dominion say in their joint press release.

The partners note that appeals court indicated an appeal is not likely to be successful in the Keystone case, creating “new and serious challenges.”

“The potential for a Supreme Court stay of the district court’s injunction would not ultimately change the judicial venue for appeal nor decrease the uncertainty associated with an eventual ruling,” the release says.

And more.

And the cancellation also recognizes the reality that the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals has consistently ruled against the pipeline on every challenge to various permits that have come before it to date. 

The companies will have significant write downs, but will carry on.

The ACP faced opposition from the outset. And its abandonment is clearly a setback for Duke and Dominion. Still, the economic loss is nowhere near as serious, for instance, as abandoning the $25 billion V.C. Summer plant was for the now-defunct SCANA Corp. in South Carolina. That was a “bet the farm” project for the small power company, now a part of Dominion. Duke and Dominion both have market caps of more than $60 billion, allowing them to absorb the impact more easily.

It is still a blow, however.

“We regret that we will be unable to complete the Atlantic Coast Pipeline,” Dominion’s Farrell says. “For almost six years we have worked diligently and invested billions of dollars to complete the project and deliver the much-needed infrastructure to our customers and communities.”

The full article with the financial implications for the companies and East Virginia can be found here.

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July 6, 2020 at 08:31AM