Political interference with Hydroxychloroquine treatment of COVID-19 is the main cause of increases in new COVID-19 cases. Mandatory universal masking contributes to that, too. But excessive testing and higher sensitivity of the PCR tests can cause appearance of higher number of cases then there actually are.

PCR tests show false positives when they detect harmless RNA fragments of the C19 virus, long after the person has recovered from COVID-19 (with or without symptoms). The more testing done one more post-C19 people, the larger the share of false positives. Newer PCR tests are likely to be more sensitive. Thus, they are likely to give an even larger share of false positives.

The increase in C19 hospitalizations might be explained by more willingness to hospitalize C19 patients. When hospitals are ordered to turn away non-emergency patients to have room for C19, they are tempted to fill up the empty beds with C19 patients. Additionally, Gilead produced a lot of Remdesivir, which can only be used in a hospital setting. Naturally, more hospitalizations would allow for more Remdesivir use.

Read an informed opinion Coronavirus: Why everyone was wrong, based on Swiss experience.

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July 21, 2020 at 12:11PM

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July 21, 2020 at 09:09AM

As is to  be expected the headline buried the good news Serology study estimates less than 1 per cent of B.C. was infected by first coronavirus wave.  Excerpts in italics with my bolds.

B.C. Centre for Disease Control research also suggests province’s true infection rate is about eight times the rate based on reported cases

The study is the first in Canada to report infection rates based on seroprevalence, which is a measure of the presence in blood samples of antibodies produced to resist the virus.Determining exactly how many people in Canada have been exposed to COVID-19 is a key goal of the immunity task force the federal government set up in April.

Timothy Evans, a member of the task force and director of McGill University’s school of population and global health in Montreal, said the B.C. survey indicates the province’s deft management of the first wave of the pandemic resulted in very low exposure across its population.

“The low prevalence of population immunity suggests that continued vigilance and adherence to best practices to reduce risk of infection will be critical, especially in the context of the second wave of the pandemic,” Dr. Evans said.

He added that the eight-to-one ratio of actual to reported cases is consistent with international studies and that he expected a similar result across Canada. The survey was based on blood samples from more than 1,700 people in two periods, one in mid-March and a second in late May. The data were gathered anonymously from residual blood drawn from individuals at diagnostic clinics in B.C.’s Lower Mainland. The subjects were males and females of varying ages, including children.

Dr. Jha, who is leading a seroprevalence study that aims to sample as many as 10,000 Canadians, also said the individuals in the B.C. study may not be representative of the province’s population. For example, the study may be skewed toward healthy people who were having their blood tested as a precaution, or by those who were already ill.

It also captured the presence of antibodies in blood samples before and after the first wave but not during the peak in April. Another key piece of information the B.C. study does not provide – and was not designed to – is whether the individuals found to have antibodies for COVID-19 are now immune to the coronavirus and, if so, for how long.

My Comment:

Up to now, we have only been able to estimate the lethality of Covid19 by comparing death rates to confirmed cases. In Canada as of July 17, 2020, there were 8839 deaths of people with Covid19 compared to 109669 confirmed cases, or 8.1%.  If the actual # of infections was 8 times higher, that ratio drops to 1% lethality.  Furthermore, the ratio of deaths/cases ranged as high as 14% early June, and is now down to 3%.  Factoring in the hidden infections reduced the current lethality to 0.4%.

Of course this is preliminary reporting while we await results from the nation-wide study.

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July 21, 2020 at 09:07AM

By Paul Homewood

 Electrification of heat and transport will create huge challenges in terms of generating capacity. But what is often forgotten is the upgrading of the cables which bring the power into our towns and homes:

London, 16 July: The UK faces a £200 billion bill to rewire the country if the government follows through on plans to electrify the country’s homes and transport systems. That’s because installation of electric car chargers and heat pumps will push up demand for power beyond the capacity of the existing wiring.

The findings are set out in a new report from the Global Warming Policy Foundation, which is published today. According to author Mike Travers, this will mean that most streets in the UK will need to be dug up (with diesel-driven machinery):

“At present new home car chargers and heat pumps are using up all the spare capacity. But we will soon reach the point where the network will not be able to handle the extra demand. So in towns and cities, the underground cables which carry the power will be inadequate. That means that we are going to have to dig up almost every urban street and many rural ones too. The whole distribution grid is going to need to be replaced.”

And the cables that carry power into the homes will need to be dug up too.

According to Travers:

“The power cables taking electricity into your home probably run underneath your front drive. So if you want a car charger and a heat pump you are going to have to pay to dig it up. If you have an expensive monoblocked drive, that will not be cheap. Distribution boards, main fuses and smart meters in homes are going to have to be upgraded too.”

Travers has estimated the cost of all this work at around £200 billion, even before considering the cost caused by the disruption. “Many homeowners will be paying thousands”, he says.

Notes for journalists

Mike Travers CEng, MIMechE, FIET is an electrical engineer, whose career spanned periods in the Royal Engineers, in the hydroelectric sector, and industry. He previously sat on the the IET Wiring Regulations Committee and was the industry representative on the committee that rewrote the Grid Codes for Scotland.

His paper is entitled The Hidden Cost of Net Zero: Rewiring the UK and can be downloaded here (pdf)

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July 21, 2020 at 05:03AM