Covid risk now not greater than many of the risks we always face (like seasonal flu)

Burt Rutan weighs on Covid-19 risks. “Why are we destroying our economic health by forcing businesses to be locked-down?”
Covid’s actual risk lies in the deaths, not cases, and we are now enjoying the LOWEST death rate since July 4 minimum value.
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November 13 saw a new record set for the number of tests performed in one day (1,383,713), says Burt. Nov 13 also saw a new record for the number of reported cases in one day (183,625); and the LOWEST death rate since July 4 minimum value (about the same as that on average last couple of weeks).

Burt’s son Jeff has spent the good part of this year developing software that presents the Covid data in hundreds of ways. Here are two of Jeff’s graphs updated from the Nov 13 data:

Covid Risk, as the Media presents it, is meant to Scare, not to Inform, says Burt. But Covid’s actual risk lies in the deaths, not cases. These graphs are therefore presented to Inform, not to Scare.

This first graph, beginning on March 20, shows that new cases rose, then dipped, rose again, then dipped, and lately have soared.

Blue = USA, Green = EU, Magenta = UK, Orange = Canada, Lime Green = Australia

Now let’s look at the death rates.

“As you can see,” says Burt, “deaths are tiny compared to the earlier spikes. Also, these are deaths WITH covid, not deaths CAUSED BY covid, nearly all are old people with other health issues … old people like me, who also had other issues of morbidity, like heart disease, malignant neoplasms, cerebrovascular disease, Alzheimer’s disease, etc.”
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Blue = USA, Green = EU, Magenta = UK, Orange = Canada, Lime Green = Australia Death rates have almost flattened

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“Of course, I am not saying there is no risk due to Covid,” Burt continues. “There certainly is for me, being 77 with serious heart disease history.”

“However, the risk to the population in general is now not greater than many of the risks we always face (like seasonal flu), begging the question of why are we preventing children from attending classroom education and why are we destroying our economic health by forcing businesses to be locked-down?”
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Posted by permission of Burt Rutan

Editor’s note: For those readers who may not recognize Burt Rutan’s name, here’s a bit of what Wikipedia says about him:

Burt Rutan, a retired American aerospace engineer and entrepreneur, designed the record-breaking Voyager, which in 1986 was the first plane to fly around the world without stopping or refueling, and the Virgin Atlantic GlobalFlyer, which in 2006 set the world record for the fastest (342 mph/551 km/h in 67 hours) and longest (25,766 miles/41,466 km) nonstop non-refueled circumnavigation flight in history. In 2004, Rutan’s sub-orbital spaceplane design SpaceShipOne became the first privately funded spacecraft to enter the realm of space, winning the Ansari X-Prize that year for achieving the feat twice within a two-week period.

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November 15, 2020 at 01:25PM