A flood of disinformation

Just a quick note from me.

Regular readers will know that I recently scribbled something about that icon of doomsday, Thwaites Glacier. As part of my perambulations around the digital sewer that we call the internet, searching in the sludge for a nugget or two of gold, I came across Justin Rowlatt’s holiday to Thwaites in the southern summer of 2019-20. His breathless report of the visit is here.

Anyway, Rowlatt in discussing the potential for Thwaites to actually bring about the End of Everything featured a map of London showing “areas at risk of flooding” by 2100. It was supplied by an outfit called Climate Central, who seem to specialise in producing terrifying maps of parts of the world underwater.

The first one of theirs I saw, way back, was Norfolk:

“Shocking global warming map shows swathes of East Anglia under water by 2050”

Huge swathes of East Anglia will be under water in 30 years unless drastic action is taken to halt global warming, according to a global flood-risk map built by US-based researchers at Climate Central.

Here’s an “East Anglia” version:

“East Anglia could be ravaged by flooding and high sea levels by 2050, according to global map“

There’s one for Wales…

“Updated climate change sea level risk map shows large parts of Wales flooded by 2050”

There’s one for Devon… this time with some pushback…

“Study warning swathes of East Devon and Exeter could be under water by 2050 ‘doesn’t realistically predict likelihood of future flooding’”

A study’s stark warning that huge swathes of East Devon and Exeter could be under water by 2050 has been played down by county council chiefs.

I could go on and on, but I won’t. The play seems to be to make maps tailored to local news outlets and fling them about to see what sticks. Many outlets are happy to oblige. A quick cut and paste for a bunch of clicks; in return Climate Central gets its eschatological – or should that be scatological – message out to more punters. (Note: Climate Central might supply a web tool which media outlets can use to produce their own shocking maps. I do not know.)

Emulating the London Map

Here is the terrifying map of London as reproduced by Rowlatt:

Naturally being a curious sort of chap I wondered how much sea level rise was represented in the map. Luckily there is a freely available digital terrain model of the UK. All you need after that is a GIS program and ten minutes to colour it in. The vertical resolution of the free map is 1 metre, so I was a bit worried that the “by 2100” map would all have happened in the first increment. Surely not. Surely London was not as flat as that.

Well, I added a metre to sea level. Then another. By the time I had reached +10 metres I finally had something that looked a lot like the Climate Central map.

My next thought was, well, if the sea level is rising at 3 mm a year, how long would it take to rise 10 metres? That number in years is 10,000 divided by 3. More or less 3000 years. It’s more but hey. Let’s be generous. So the “map of London in 2100” was actually the map of London in 5000.

But no. Wait! Slow down. Back up. They’re not talking about the incremental creep upwards of general sea level – they’re talking about storms, dude. Big frickin’ storms comin’ in and bashin’ everythin’ about. These things kinda surge.

Yes, but the tops of the surges presumably increment in tandem with the slowly creeping general rise in sea level… so what your map is actually showing is a large blob of London which is already “under threat” of flooding, to which you may have added a further half metre to widen the envelope a bit. Except you didn’t label it that way. The map looks very much as if the Thames itself represents the danger zone in 2020,  and the red represents the same in 2100. Disinformation indeed. So I made another version. This map has the last 1 m contour coloured yellow. This region we may describe as “the bits of London under threat of flooding in 2100 that weren’t under threat of flooding in 2020.” The pinkish bits, meanwhile, are “bits of London under threat of flooding in 2020, which will still be under threat of flooding in 2100.”

And that’s with a generous 1 metre of sea level rise.

Are you scared yet? Why not?

Oh, finally, I made my own map of future flooding in Norfolk. As before, I’ve coloured in the 0-10 m contours. It therefore represents, at current rates, 3000 years of sea level rise. Note to the insufficiently alarmed: the blue bits are already at sea level! Yike!

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

Having failed to win over adults, climate activists appear to be stepping up efforts to impress their viewpoint on children entrusted to their care, with strategies ranging from climate themed early learning stories to activism workshops for teenagers.

Get them young;

Why Children’s Stories Are a Powerful Tool to Fight Climate Change

Why you can trust us

MAREK OZIEWICZ 6 MIN READJAN 14, 2022

The power of children’s stories resides largely in its audience: in how open young people are to new ideas. Their drive to experiment is familiar to any parent: Children invent new words, do things differently, and ask “why” about pretty much everything we adults take for granted.

For teachers, children’s noncompliant curiosity is at once a source of delight and frustration. We know this curiosity lies at the heart of learning, and we strive to keep it alive by pushing against educational systems built on factory-model standardization. And while some dismiss youth “rebelliousness” as a stage—something to grow out of—what if it is really a refusal to comply with the wrong ways of doing things that adults have acquiesced to?

In this time of climate change and biodiversity loss, children’s ability to imagine alternatives to the way things are may be the most powerful force for the socioeconomic transformation we need. It is childlike curiosity that allows youth climate activists like Xiuhtezcatl Martinez and Greta Thunberg to imagine that people like you and me, together, can change the system to work for the planet. It is childlike honesty that empowers young climate strikers to say, much like the child in “The Emperor’s New Clothes,” that adults are caught up in self-serving illusions about eternal growth in the market economy. And it really takes a childlike power to believe that a sustainable, equitable, and multi-species future is achievable even as corporations are fracking like there’s no tomorrow.

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Imagine that we teach climate literacy from kindergarten all the way up to high school and across all subject areas. Imagine we give our students story-rich examples to help them understand what is at stake and how they can be agents of change. Imagine we also empower them with vocabulary and concepts to articulate visions of sustainable, equitable futures. And imagine we give our teachers a resource where they can find books, films, apps, and other formats—including lesson plans—for teaching climate literacy effectively.

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We do this because we recognize that in our current socioeconomic system, any meaningful action on climate change is indeed a childish dream. But if this childishness—its audacity, directness, and hope—is the only way forward, addressing climate change is eminently a job for children’s stories.

Read more: https://www.yesmagazine.org/opinion/2022/01/14/climate-change-childrens-stories

Teenage workshops to turn out more kids who think like Greta Thunberg;

Climate change: Inadequate governmental response is causing climate anxiety in young people

January 14, 2022 by World Economic Forum

This article is brought to you thanks to the collaboration of The European Sting with the World Economic Forum.

Author: Stefan Klebert, Chief Executive Officer, GEA

• More than half of young people worry about the future of the planet, according to a new survey.
• 75% described the future as “frightening”.
• Despite the lack of action from global governments, young people are taking action.

Governments around the world must protect the mental health of young people by taking action against climate change, a study from The Lancet Planetary Health has concluded.

…

What are young people doing to help solve the crisis?

Regardless of the perceived government inaction, Melati Wijsen and her sister Isabel are training up a generation by giving them the tools to make a difference.

YOUTHTOPIA offers on-the-ground local workshops and training for young people who want to become “changemakers”. YOUTHTOPIA is the second project from the pair after they helped bring about a ban on single-use plastic bags six years ago in Bali – a movement called Bye Bye Plastic Bags.

Greta Thunberg and other young climate activists sat in front of the Swedish parliament every day for three weeks in August 2018 to protest the lack of action on climate change. As a result, she launched the Fridays for Future school climate strikes. 

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Read more: https://europeansting.com/2022/01/14/climate-change-inadequate-governmental-response-is-causing-climate-anxiety-in-young-people/

Our kids are not “powerful tools” for others to use, to further a political agenda which parents have largely rejected.