Month: January 2022

England’s Crumbling Coasts

By Paul Homewood

 

This old perennial has returned:

 

 image

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From a distance, the beach at Winterton-on-sea in Norfolk looks like the opening scene of Saving Private Ryan, with hundreds of grey bodies lying motionless across the sand. On closer inspection, it becomes clear they are not fallen soldiers but a huge colony of seals taken to the land for pupping season.

It’s an amazing annual sight that draws tourists and nature-lovers from across the country, but another process is taking place that is pushing people back – the growing threat of coastal erosion. Just along from where the armies of grey seals lay with their white pups, there used to stand the Dunes Cafe, a much-loved beach facility with a large and loyal clientele.

A year ago it was demolished to prevent its imminent collapse as a result of land lost to sea and storms. The ground where it stood is, like the cafe itself, no longer there. It’s a story of disappearance taking place all along the eastern coast of England, but particularly in East Anglia, that bulbous protrusion jutting into the North Sea.

That climate change and rising sea levels take their toll on the landscape is an old story, but one with an urgent new twist. “The sea level’s been rising since the last ice age, 20,000 years ago or so,” says Jim Hall, professor of climate and environmental risk at Oxford University’s Environmental Change Institute. “And it’s going faster. We’re probably not seeing its effect very much yet on the coast, though we will in the future.”

A 2020 report by the Committee on Climate Change, on which Hall sits as an expert on coastal erosion and flooding, found 1.2m homes at significant risk of flooding and a further 100,000 subject to coastal erosion by 2080 – which, although it sounds safely distant, will be within the lifetime of most of those born so far this century.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jan/01/sands-slip-england-crumbling-coasts-erosion-rising-sea-levels

 

For a start, let’s demolish that ridiculous caption:

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Millions of homes are not at risk from erosion, nor even the figure of 100,000 detailed further down the article.

In Norfolk, for instance, where most coastal erosion takes place, we are talking about a handful of villages affected, typically of just a few hundred houses each. Happisburgh, for instance, which is specifically mentioned by the Guardian, has 607 households. But most of these are well in land anyway, about a quarter mile from the sea, and will not be at risk for a long time to come, given that erosion is reckoned to be about 5 meters a decade:

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Happisburgh Village Website

Happisburgh

In reality, there are probably only half a dozen or so houses at risk in Happisburgh in our lifetimes, and the situation is very similar elsewhere along the coast. The reason is painfully simple – people avoided building anywhere near the cliffs in the past precisely because they knew that rapid coastal erosion at places like Happisburgh has always occurred there.

This is from the Happisburgh Village Website:

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http://happisburgh.org.uk/history/sea/coastal-erosion/

 

And we have of course the example of Dunwich, just to the south in Suffolk, on which I posted earlier.

 

Although the Guardian acknowledges this history, they quite wrongly imply that it is getting much worse due to global warming. There is of course no evidence offered, and tidal gauges on the east coast quite clearly show that sea level rise is not accelerating:

 

 mean trend plot

https://www.tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?id=170-053

 

Moreover about half of this rise is due to the land sinking:

 

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file:///C:/Users/phome/AppData/Local/Temp/appendix_a__n_norfolk_coastal_environment-1.pdf

But don’t expect the Guardian to tell its readers the truth.

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January 8, 2022 at 12:27PM

Cities boosted rain, sent storms to the suburbs during Europe’s deadly summer floods


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN

Flooding in Altenburg, Germany
IMAGE: THE TOWN OF ALTENAHR IN ALTENBURG, GERMANY WAS ALMOST ENTIRELY SUBMERGED DUE TO FLOODING CAUSED BY THE JULY 2021 STORM. view more CREDIT: MARTIN SEIFERT

When it comes to extreme weather, climate change usually gets all the attention. But according to a study from The University of Texas at Austin and two universities in China, the unique effects of cities – which can intensify storms and influence where rain falls – need to be accounted for as well.

“In addition to cutting emissions we need to recognize that understanding the effects of urbanization is part of the solution,” said Dev Niyogi, a professor in the UT Jackson School of Geosciences and Cockrell School of Engineering.

Niyogi is a co-author on a study published in Geophysical Research Letters that used computer models to investigate how cities and climate change influenced the rainstorm that struck the Rotterdam-Brussels-Cologne metropolitan region on July 14, 2021.

The model found that the interplay of large-scale climate and local-scale urbanization intensified the storm, causing more rainfall than either climate or urbanization on its own.

The severe weather system was part of a storm complex that dropped heavy rain across Western Europe in the summer of 2021, causing destructive and deadly flooding that killed at least 242 people, making it one of the deadliest floods in European history.

The research team also included scientists from Nanjing University and Tsinghua University.

Urbanization is known to impact local climate and invigorate storms. City buildings are taller and closer together, which can stall storm systems while directing them away from the city center. And cities’ warmer relative temperatures and higher levels of pollution can often increase moisture in clouds.

In the new study, researchers found that interplay between a warmer climate and city environment focused the rainstorm on suburban areas and boosted rainfall by 50% when compared to the influence of the city alone. That means that of the near 6 inches of rainfall that fell on the metropolitan region on July 14, about three inches of it can be attributed to these interactions.

To conduct the study, the scientists created a storm computer model that included the effects of the environment, city and climate. The model of the storm proved to be representative of the actual event. The storm centered over the same regions in eastern Belgium and western Germany and unfolded over the same timeline with the simulation running from July 13 –17 with the most rain falling on July 14. The model slightly overestimated the total amount of rain that fell, simulating 7.2 inches instead of the near 6 inches measured by rain gauges.

In addition to simulating the actual storm environment, the researchers also created simulation models that replaced cities with undeveloped land and lowered the temperatures to pre-industrial levels. Doing this helped the researchers determine how cities and climate each influenced the storm, as well as their combined impact.

Although the influence of the climate and the city together had the greatest impact, lead author Long Yang, an associate professor at Nanjing University, said that, when viewed individually, the influence of the city equals or outweighs that of climate change.

“We are the first group to reveal that the regional impacts through land-atmosphere interactions on extreme rainfall is comparable or more critical than that induced by climate-scale processes,” Yang said.

The models apply to one extreme storm. Nevertheless, Niyogi said that the results conform with different urban rainfall studies and show the importance of incorporating the influence of urbanization and regional landscapes into climate models in general.

He also added that adapting to climate change provides an opportunity to plan more resilient communities that can help shape desired climate outcomes, such as cities that can send storms away from flood-prone regions.

“At more local scales, there are immediate ways to develop climate resiliency where you don’t have to wait for 100-plus nations signing on to declarations,” Niyogi said. “It’s something you can do at the city scale, the regional scale.”

The study’s additional co-authors are Professor Guangheng Ni and Fuqiang Tian from Tsinghua University in China.


JOURNAL

Geophysical Research Letters

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Urbanization Exacerbated Rainfall Over European Suburbs Under a Warming Climate

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

16-Oct-2021

From EurekAlert!

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January 8, 2022 at 12:20PM

Coastal Erosion & The Story Of Dunwich

By Paul Homewood

 

  This is a rerun of a post of mine from 2014, as coastal erosion is back in the news again, on which I will post shortly:

 

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Remains of All Saints Church, Dunwich – 1904

The Tyndall Centre would have us believe that erosion of parts of the East Anglian coast has something to do with climate change. The reality, however, is that the coast has been eroding for thousands of years, and the reason is simple – geology.

As a report by North Norfolk District Council points out:

The central part of the North Norfolk coastline is characterised by soft cliffs, fronted by beaches. The whole of the District’s cliffed coastline is thus susceptible to erosion. The rate of erosion is obviously influenced by the coast protection measures in place, such as sea walls, revetments and groynes; hence some areas experience rapid erosion, whilst in others it is almost completely abated. It should be noted that because the cliffs are created from glacial material they are liable to become more unstable when they have a high water content. The coastline is thus highly dynamic and vulnerable to changes in the climatic conditions (including sea level, storms and surges) and groundwater percolation

The Suffolk coastline suffers from the same problems having “some of the youngest and softest rocks in the UK and for this reason it is one of the UK’s most vulnerable coastlines. The ‘oldest’ rocks are London Clay laid down 50 million years ago. Much of the area consists of Crag laid down 1.5 – 4 million years ago – young in geological terms! The top layer of sand and soil is from the ice age. It is this combination of soft rock which has lead to the serious erosion which has threatened the Suffolk Coast.”

And the Environment Agency, who have set up a “Shoreline Management Plan along the Norfolk and Suffolk coastline between Kelling and Lowestoft. tell us that:

Erosion has always been a problem on the Norfolk coast because of its exposed position and soft rock geology. The entire coast has been eroding throughout documented history, dating back around 1,000 years, and the historical record shows us that several villages have been lost entirely.

Erosion rates are between one and three metres per year, so it has become increasingly difficult and expensive to continue protecting certain locations – and trying to do so makes erosion worse in other areas along the coast.

 

The village of Dunwich in Suffolk is a classic example. Dunwich is now just a collection of a few houses, with a population of about 100. Yet in the Middle Ages, it had one of the greatest ports on the East Coast, and was the 10th largest town in England. So what happened?

The National Archives list the entry for Dunwich in the Domesday Book, of the 11thC, and then compare with later centuries.

The entry for Dunwich shows that it was one of the largest ports on the east coast, with a thriving fishing industry and around 3,000 residents. The ‘gift’ or tax it paid that year – 68,000 herrings – was more than that of any other Suffolk port. However, this entry also warns that Dunwich lost half of its farmland to erosion along the coast between 1066 and 1086.

In the next century, Dunwich became one of the most important towns in England. Its yearly payment to the Crown rose to £120 13s 4d and 24,000 herrings. By the 13th century, its international status as a trading centre was fading a bit. In the 14th century, the old port had to be abandoned. Over 400 houses were swept away in a single storm. In the 17th century, the sea washed out the high street and reached the market place. Records from the 19th and 20th centuries, such as the census and the Valuation Office survey, reveal a quite different community than that recorded in the Domesday Book. Today, Dunwich has a few cottages, a church, a pub, a small visitor centre and the ruins of a friary.

Note the reference to erosion between 1066 and 1086.

 

Dunwich Museum tell the story in more detail:

Over the centuries Dunwich has been a Roman fort, the capital of a Saxon Kingdom and the base from which St Felix, the first Bishop of Dunwich, converted East Anglia to Christianity.

By the 11th century it was one of the greatest ports on the east coast, the tenth largest place in England, a crusader port, a naval base, and a religious centre with many large churches, monasteries, hospitals, grand public buildings and even a mint. Its citizens grew wealthy from trade, shipbuilding and a seventy vessel fishing fleet. It had half the population of London and two seats in Parliament. All of it has been lost to the North Sea except for the ruins of the 13th century Franciscan friary on the edge of the cliff and Leper Hospital chapel in the present churchyard.

Dunwich is now a tiny village of barely more than 120 people and a few offshore fishing boats, a friendly 17th century pub, a well-known beach café and of course, a museum devoted to its fascinating history.

Dunwich was becoming a thriving port despite the ravages of Viking raids. The sea, all the time, was changing the coast, producing a safe haven protected by the encroaching spit of land to the north. In the 11th century William the Conqueror, a Norman (themselves descendants of Vikings), marched into Britain and in 1086 he ordered a survey of his new kingdom. This was the Domesday Book, which is kept at the National Archives in Kew. Dunwich rated a long and detailed entry, part of which reads:

Edric of Laxfield held Dunwich before 1066 as one manor; Twenty Four Frenchmen with 40 acres of land. Burgesses 236, poor men 180, They pay 4 10s. The land on the cliff used to be 200 acres, as the Sea had carried off the other 100’

This was an early mention of coastal erosion, the factor that was to destroy the town. But at this time the erosion, coupled with the growing spit of land, was creating a near perfect harbour, where ships from the Continent could be safe from gales. Dunwich was a boom town. Ships brought wine from France, alum from Spain, flax from Prussia, and salt from Gascony. Cheese was exported as was wool, to the low countries where it was woven into cloth and brought back to England, via Dunwich.The markets would have bustled with cosmopolitan crowds: merchants, farmers, tradesmen, officials, clerics and pilgrims. The fishing trade was at the heart of Dunwich’s prosperity and part of its debt to the Crown was paid in barrels of herrings.

Medieval Dunwich had eight churches and a Knights Templar church. The Dominicans (Blackfriars) and Franciscans (Greyfriars) both had monasteries. Because the town was so full the Greyfriars had to build outside the ramparts and their ruins survive. There was a leper hospital (next to the present church) and the Maison Dieu hospital (now the car park). The 13th century was the golden era for Dunwich. It was one of the ten largest towns in England, high in the estimation of the crown. It was rich, ecclesiastically and politically important. The sea had created a fine deep water harbour.

But the tides were still coming from the north, bringing with them thousands of tons of sand and shingle, twice a day. On three nights early in 1286 a huge storm raged, sweeping away the lower parts of the town and joining the spit of land to the coastline to the south of the town. Dunwich no longer had a harbour. Channels were dug through the shingle to enable some maritime access to the town but in 1328 an even fiercer storm, causing great loss of life, finally blocked the harbour. The Blyth and Dunwich rivers forced their way to the sea between Walberswick and Southwold. Dunwich went into a slow decline.

Wikipedia chart the gradual loss of the town to the North Sea, via the cast list of churches that disappeared one by one into the waves.

  • St Leonard’s: was a parish church that fell to the sea in the 14th century.[20]
  • St Nicholas: this was a cruciform building which lay to the south of the city. Lost to the sea soon after the Black Death.
  • St Martin’s: built before 1175, it was lost to the sea between 1335 and 1408.
  • St Francis Chapel: standing beside the Dunwich River, the chapel was lost in the 16th century.
  • St Katherine’s Chapel: situated in the parish of St John, this was lost in the 16th century.
  • Preceptory of the Knights Templar: the preceptory is thought to have been founded around 1189 and was a circular building not dissimilar to the famous Temple Church in London. When the sheriff of Suffolk and Norfolk took an inventory in 1308 he found the sum of £111 contained in three pouches – a vast sum. In 1322, on the orders of Edward II, all the Templars’ land passed to the Knights Hospitallers. Following the dissolution of the Hospitallers in 1562 the Temple was demolished and the foundations washed away during the reign of Charles I.
  • St Peter’s: similar in length to the church at nearby Blythburgh, St Peter’s was stripped of anything of value as the cliff edge drew nearer. The east gable fell in 1688 and the rest of the building followed in 1697. The parish register survives and is now in the British Library.
  • Blackfriars: Dominican priory situated in the south east of the city. It was founded during the time of Henry III by Roger Holish. By 1385 preparations were made for the Dominicans to move to nearby Blythburgh as the sea front drew nearer, although these were certainly premature as the priory remained active and above sea level until at least the Dissolution of the monasteries under Henry VIII, with the last building recorded as having fallen to the sea in 1717.
  • All Saints’ Church: last of Dunwich’s ancient churches to be lost to the sea, All Saints’ was abandoned in the 1750s after it was decided the parishioners could no longer afford the upkeep, although burials occurred in the churchyard until the 1820s. The cliff edge reached All Saints’ in 1904 with the tower falling in 1922.[21] One of the tower buttresses was salvaged, however and now stands in the current Victorian-era St James’ Church. One of the last remaining gravestones, dedicated to John Brinkley Easey,[22] fell over the cliff in the early 1990s. A single gravestone still remains (as of 2011) around 15 feet from the cliff edge in memory of Jacob Forster who died in the late 18th century.
  •  

Just think, the inhabitants of Dunwich could have avoided all this, if they had given up their SUVs!

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January 8, 2022 at 11:21AM

Biden policies unnecessarily pit development against nature

The Biden Administration, in a mad and ineffective rush to stave off climate catastrophe, is confounding those who seek protection of threatened and endangered species and habitat.

The post Biden policies unnecessarily pit development against nature appeared first on CFACT.

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January 8, 2022 at 10:37AM