By Paul Homewood
The provisional power production data for China last year has now been released. The key chart is the second, which compares year on year with 2019, rather than the pandemic affected year of 2020:
https://chinaenergyportal.org/en/2021-electricity-other-energy-statistics-preliminary/
It continues the trend seen in recent years, with the growth in thermal (nearly all coal) generation continuing to run at about double that of wind/solar. In other words, growth in renewable electricity cannot even keep up with rising demand.
The overall mix shows that fossil fuels accounted for 67.4% last year, with wind and solar just 11.7%, only half the level here in the UK.
New wind and solar capacity added last year has also fallen since 2020. In particular, solar capacity is growing no faster than it has done in the last five years:
We often see headlines like this:
But as we know there is a huge difference between CAPACITY and GENERATION. Wind and solar capacity in China is now 634 GW, more than a quarter of the total of 2373 GW. Yet wind and solar generation is just 11%.
A study by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies in 2019 projected that power demand in China would rise to 12 GW by 2040, suggesting annual increases of around 200 TWh:
www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/Glimpses-of-Chinas-energy-future.pdf
Based on the last two years, and indeed the last five, increases in wind and solar power will not be able to even keep up with that.
With further hydro developments limited, and nuclear power still only a bit part player, this will mean that there is little prospect of thermal power output falling before 2040.
FOOTNOTE
China Portal always lump thermal power into one figure, including coal, gas , oil and biomass.
In practice however, coal dominates, accounting for 93% of thermal output in 2020.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
February 11, 2022 at 09:25AM
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