Having recently advanced the idea that climate change was pushing UK storms further south, from Scotland to northern England, the BBC now features someone saying that the jet streams will move further north – for the same reason, i.e. climate change. Of course their chosen weather predicter is a net-zero enthusiast spouting the usual alarmist propaganda.
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Heavy rainfall, flooding and storm surges will become more common in the UK if global temperatures continue to increase, say scientists.
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Some scientists have suggested that the impact of storm Eunice – and future storms – has been exacerbated by the climate crisis, says BBC Science Focus.
But how exactly do rising temperatures affect the UK weather?
Has climate change caused Storm Eunice?
“Quite often the question posed is whether an event is because of climate change or not. But it’s just not a yes or no question,” said Dr Friederike Otto, a lecturer at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London.
“Climate change can be one of the causes, and it can make events worse. But it is never the only cause.”
In the case of storm Eunice, the high-speed winds are unlikely to have been caused by climate change. But, according to Otto, the damage done to the UK shores will have been made worse by the rising temperatures.
“What we do know is that the rainfall and storm surge aspects of these storms is worse because of climate change.”
Climate change could also push storms further up the globe, said Professor Dann Mitchell, a climate scientist at the University of Bristol.
“We do know that the positioning of these storms might change, and that’s because of climate change’s impact on the jet stream.”
The jet stream is an air current that circles the Northern Hemisphere, distributing wind and rain, storms and heatwaves. It’s thought that increasing air temperatures will alter the flow of the air, causing the jet stream to move further north.
“The jet stream controls the storm tracks, the way the storms travel over the North Atlantic and hit us [in the UK]. So, as climate change is causing a poleward shift in the jet stream, you’d expect a poleward shift in the storm tracks as well,” said Mitchell.
“We’re also expecting to see a deeper penetration of these storm tracks in Europe. So, while it’s true to say that the wind itself is not detectably different [due to climate change] yet, in a sense storm winds will increase somewhere, because they’re affecting places that they normally wouldn’t.”
How does climate change cause flooding?
Otto said increased rain is due to what is called the thermodynamic effect. “A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour and that water vapour needs to get out of the atmosphere, which it does as rainfall.”
Currently, one degree of global warming results in a seven per cent increase of rainfall in these events. “It doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a lot,” said Otto.
In addition, storm surges that bring water high above normal sea level are now even more dangerous. “Storm surges that usually occur with these events are more damaging, because sea levels are higher than they would have been without climate change,” said Otto.
“As long as temperate global temperatures are rising – and they will not stop rising until we have reached net zero CO2 emissions – these events [will get] more frequent and more intense. With the current trajectory of greenhouse gas emissions, we will see more flooding, more intense rainfall and many more hot and long heatwaves.”
Full article here.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
February 18, 2022 at 10:43AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 