An aggressive and ambitious Russian has caused policymakers to reflect on the debacle that is subsidised wind and solar. National security is now taken to equate with energy security; a chap with an insatiable thirst for power has revealed what Europe’s renewable energy transition will ultimately mean for those still pretending an all wind and sun-powered future is in the offing.

Obsessive reliance on wind and solar (and the gas inevitably required to provide power when the sun sets and calm weather sets in) has left Europeans vulnerable to the dictates of an erstwhile dictator. As they say, be prepared to reap precisely what you sow.

Putin’s adventures in Ukraine have thrown up an opportunity for our political betters to get a grip and start unscrambling the suicidal energy policies that beset us, before the power pricing and supply calamity seen in Europe spreads further afield, and ruins us, too.

Ben Beattie delves into the monumental institutional failure that has left us with energy supply systems on the brink of total collapse.

Renewables: the pandemic of wishful thinking
Spectator Australia
Ben Beattie
4 April 2022

There is a transition underway in our electricity sector.

Fundamentally, the people financing, regulating, designing, and operating these systems, are driving a public relations campaign promoting renewables as cheap and effective. Activism disguised as leadership is bringing about significant changes in the electricity system, changes that are having far-reaching consequences on the Australian economy and security.

Until recently, economists, engineers, and CEOs could be relied on to objectively consider all sides of a problem, making fact-based decisions for the best outcomes for their clients and shareholders (and themselves). But the much-vaunted ‘transition’ in the electricity sector has seen the share price of our two ASX-listed electricity retailers (AGL and Origin) shrivel.

In February 2021, AGL announced the write-down of AUD $1.9 billion of wind power contracts. AGL paid too much for long-term fixed-price contracts with wind developers and Origin had a similar write-down for the same reasons in July 2021. Combined, these two companies supply over 50 per cent of the Australian retail electricity market.

Further afield, Germany’s wind and solar gamble is failing too.

As Michael Schellenberger notes, Germany spent US$36 billion on wind and solar in the five years prior to 2019 while emissions flat-lined and prices skyrocketed. The Ukraine situation has exposed the weakness of Germany’s energy security and in the UK, Matt Ridley exposes a similar illogical political love affair with wind turbines.

Domestically, government bureaucrats are amplifying the problem.

Queensland’s state-owned CleanCo rewarded its CEO with $674,000 last year for overseeing a multi-million dollar loss. Queensland has to date guaranteed the income of fifteen wind and solar projects (2,266 MW). That is almost one-third of the state’s coal-fired power capacity contributing less than 10 per cent of the state’s electricity supply. Meanwhile, Queensland’s Stanwell operating over 3,300 MW of coal-fired generators returned a net profit after tax of $375 million (a plant breakdown caused a net loss of $266 million for CS Energy, the other state-owned generation company).

Origin CEO Frank Calabria recently expressed his intention to close Australia’s largest coal-fired generator, Eraring in New South Wales, and replace its 2,800 MW output with gas ‘operating over days and weeks’, batteries, hydro, and virtual power plants. That doesn’t sound cheap to me. Ex-Macquarie Bank chief Nicholas Moore (YouTube 28min), cited Lazard as evidence that wind and solar are cheaper than gas; he did not explain why subsidies remain critical to development of wind and solar projects.

Across Australia, every energy minister is promoting emissions reductions targets, wind and solar targets, or both, all underwritten by taxpayers. Politicians, desperate to bolster woke credentials and shore up falling polls, are eagerly handing over taxpayer dollars to so-called ‘green’ industries on top of the myriad of subsidies still on offer for wind and solar projects.

This casual disregard for our critical infrastructure has been abetted by the bureaucrats appointed to regulate and coordinate the electricity sector.

The previous CEO of the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO), Audrey Zibelman, said AEMO staff prioritise decarbonisation over keeping the lights on (podcast 24min). The current CEO, Daniel Westerman, fresh from ramping up wind and solar farms in America, is pushing for the Australian grid to be made ready to accept 100 per cent wind and solar by 2025. The Chair of the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC), Anna Collyer, describes her organisation as ‘striving for Net Zero’.

The heads of our mostly foreign-owned electricity network companies encourage the push for more wind and solar, as this requires massive upgrades to the grid. Since they receive a regulated return, more transmission means more guaranteed income, even as network productivity declines year on year. Engineer’s Australia, the peak body overseeing Australian engineering competencies and registrations, had Al Gore as keynote speaker at the Climate Smart Engineering Conference in November 2021. CEO, Bronwyn Evans, is signatory to a IPCC capitulation statement.

Despite the contrived support for all things green, opposition is mounting around Australia to new transmission lines and land-hungry renewables. Even the ABC can’t always ignore the negative impacts and growing ire of those affected by encroaching solar farms, wind farms, and transmission lines. Amongst the ABC’s activist headlines, the occasional piece on environmental destruction makes an unusual appearance alongside quotes from experts opining on the low cost of wind and solar.

The 1,000 MW MacIntyre Wind Farm in Queensland will need 180 towers for $2 billion ($2,000/MW). The 750 MW Kogan Ck coal-fired power station was built in 2007 for $1.2 billion ($1,600/MW). Kogan Ck coal mine is not linked to a port and is therefore not subject to export coal price changes, making its fuel costs amongst the lowest in the country. According to AEMO data, Kogan Ck offers its output in three bands: 300 MW at $36/MWh, 150 MW at $49/MWh, and the rest at $56/MWh.

The low cost of coal-fired generation is confirmed elsewhere. AGL’s FY21 annual report states total fuel costs for coal at $18.3/MWh and running costs at $11.5/MWh for a total of $29.8/MWh – comparable to Kogan Ck. Meanwhile the same annual report shows green compliance costs at $26.4/MWh and renewable Power Purchasing Agreement (PPA) costs at $52.9/MWh. Origin’s FY21 annual report shows renewable PPA costs much higher than coal at $95.3/MWh, and fuel costs (coal and gas) at $47.9/MWh. South Australia, the unashamed leader in shutting down fossil-fuelled electricity, has retail electricity rates 50 per cent higher than Queensland and New South Wales.

Our electricity system is in unchartered territory with wind and solar growth tenfold the global average.

We are continuously fed the narrative that wind and solar are cheap and reliable when the opposite is true.

Wind and solar are forced into the market despite the market desperately signalling oversupply with negative prices. Our industry and political leaders subscribe to every green woke agenda, neatly dovetailing with a lost and confused media, while our critical electricity system requires daily intervention to keep the lights on.

Wishful thinking implies a kind of innocent naivety. Does anybody think this is innocent?
Spectator Australia

From BOE Report

April 7, 2022 Terry Etam

People have been asking for thoughts on the recently announced federal climate plan. I shrug. I ask them what their thoughts are on the Iowa State Fair Hog Calling Regulations. I am indifferent. 

I know I should care, but what’s the point? The feds throw something at us, we have to work with it. We can’t “assume a leadership role”, because they don’t want hydrocarbon players in the room. The hydrocarbon industry is working flat out on CCUS, hydrogen, RNG, you name it, but that is all beside the point, when the industry must be decimated for the greater good. 

The best way to explain is with two buckets of quotes:

“We will be there to support, as the world moves beyond Russian oil and indeed, beyond fossil fuels, to have more renewables in our mix’ Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in Europe, National Post, March 2022

“Avoiding catastrophic climate change requires winding down production of oil and gas over the next decade.” Keith Brooks, Environmental Defence, March 2022

“With time running out and with the global shift to a low-carbon economy turning into a sprint, Canadians have been calling for increased climate ambition.” Minister of Environment and Climate Change Jonathan Wilkinson, fed press release, Apr 2021

“The cost of renewables and battery storage has plummeted, we don’t need gas anymore as a bridge fuel…” Tzeporah Berman, Feb 2021

I include non-governmental quotes to show the alignment. Meanwhile, outside the asylum:

“Sri Lanka plunges into 10-hour daily power cut as fuel crisis worsens”, The Hindu, Mar 2022

“Germany and Austria take step towards gas rationing”, BBC, Mar 2022

“Don’t blame Putin for Europe’s energy crisis – No matter what happens in Ukraine, this winter is not an aberration. By late summer of 2021, it was already evident that Europe was facing a looming energy crisis with gas storage levels unusually low. As winter set in, prices predictably soared to record levels, reaching such heights late last year that many industrial firms shut down production.” Foreign Policy, Feb 2022

“I hope you will hear me say that please, take advantage of the leases that you have, hire workers, get your rig count up.” US Energy secretary Jennifer Granholm, Dec 2021

Notice a split there? Lord I hope so. Here is another from the heart of Europe – the Europe that is running out of fuel, looking at rationing, and outbidding developing countries for any available LNG:

“European Investment Bank and GIZ (a German federal government agency) renew partnership to boost climate action and sustainable infrastructure in developing countries and emerging economies” Press release, March 2022

Haha. Train kept a rollin’. Colonize til you drop! Europe is here to save you! Here’s some $ to install a genuine Euro-style energy system complete with intermittent power and eventual fuel shortages. Hey Africa, where would you like your new 50-square-mile solar farm? How about right over there. What’s that? You want a natural gas pipeline? What?!?? An oil one as well? Oh dear, sorry to say but we simply cannot allow that to happen. And sorry about scooping up all that LNG off the global market old chaps but, you know, if we run out of fuel who will make all these important energy transition decisions for you?

Western leaders are acting, on the energy file, in ways that can only make one cringe, like watching an out-of-control teen at their first boozy party, where you watch the antics sadly from the sidelines, knowing you are powerless to stop it while also knowing “Buddy, you are going to regret that for a very long time.”

Actually, it is far worse than that. The situation is more like seeing your child get into the wrong drugs with the wrong crowd, then finding them on East Hastings in Vancouver or the Tenderloin in San Francisco, and your heart breaks like nothing else can break because you care so much and can do nothing to help.

Sounds melodramatic? Hmm. Ponder this. The hydrocarbon industry works very hard, and risks its own money, to provide fuel for the world. We see people in the news from all over the world, desperate for natural gas or diesel or heating oil or gasoline, and we look at our reserves reports and calculate quickly how many houses that would heat, or delivery trucks it would fuel, or how much fertilizer it could produce.

Then we flip on the news and listen to wealthy energy illiterates from wealthy urban centres explain to the degree-less masses that what they really need to worry about rather than getting a fridge to enable a stockpile of more than a day’s food is what might happen if the world warms up a few degrees in thirty years.

Analyze the climate plan? OK. Energy efficiency in buildings is a good idea. Beyond that, all I hear is dogs barking.

Two pillars of the new climate strategy illustrate that the canine comparison is appropriate. First off is the utterly stupid plan to somehow eradicate internal combustion engines by 2035 in favour of EVs (the government plan mumbles something about dealing with used cars, the overhang of which would keep ICE relevant for another 15 years).

Documentation is piling up here, there and everywhere that the mineral supply is not enough to make this happen on a global scale within any reasonable timeframe; the number of new mines required cannot happen given the limited mineral development pipeline (with lower grades and more stringent regulations making each new mine more challenging than the last). 

But let’s say the fools succeed (because we keep electing them) and all new vehicle sales in Canada by 2035 are EVs. That would mean we are hogging the scarce resources (what else is new) and the rest of the world, the billions that make the difference, will be on their own growth trajectory without any scarce EV metals/minerals, so Canada’s jump-on-sword act will be utterly meaningless (except for our population, which will be driving what they do not want to by sheer government force). 

And that 2035 EV-dominance is not going to happen anyway, which can be observed by the simple act of visiting a high-rise apartment building or apartment block, neither of which is equipped to deal with the electrical load of an all-EV parking lot – but then again neither are residential streets either. The short-sightedness of this all-EV plan is stupefying.

The second pillar relates to Canada’ energy future itself. Recently, Trudeau and Wilkinson made the diplomatic tour to show that Canada will do its part to alleviate the global fuel shortage. Wilkinson pledged that Canada would contribute 300,000 more b/d of oil, though as Enbridge pointed out we can’t really send it anywhere except to the US. 

What the world arguably needs even more is increased natural gas supplies, but the federal support for LNG has been lukewarm at best – a decade after dozens of LNG projects were proposed for our coasts, only a few remain alive. That weak enthusiasm has now turned into full blown animosity; the government slid this nugget into the climate plan: “Building new high-emitting assets now risks transferring electricity rate increases to future generations, since these emitting assets will need to be extensively retrofitted or shut down before the end of their economic life in order to meet emissions standards. Some could become stranded assets as Canada, along with the world, makes the transition to net-zero emissions. Sending a clear regulatory signal now should discourage further investments in assets that could become stranded in the years to come by this inevitable transition.” [emphasis added]

There you have it folks. There you have it Europe. There you have it Pakistan. There you have it China. There you have it Joe Biden. You need more hydrocarbons, right? You want the world to step up and replace Russia’s considerable oil and gas exports not just next month but indefinitely, right?

Well, Trudeau can’t spell his agenda out any more clearly for you: Get lost. We are not going to help. Canada is, using the government’s very own words, “sending a clear regulatory signal now” to discourage further investments in oil and gas assets. 

That categorically includes natural gas infrastructure such as LNG, because it is designed to last longer than 13 years, and any proposed large infrastructure would take forever to get off the ground. Even wells are expected to last longer than 13 years, so to hell with them too.

Ironically, this stance puts the federal government at odds with the very segment of the population it has placed nearest to its bureaucratic heart – First Nations.

One more quote for you, this from an Indigenous Partnerships Success Showcase news release celebrating successful investment in a number of natural gas power facilities, pipelines, and other infrastructure critical to a future energy transition: “The work being undertaken contributes to reconciliation, which involves Indigenous communities accessing greater economic participation and investment opportunities,” said Stephen Buffalo, Alberta Indigenous Opportunities Corporation chair. It’s not just in Alberta either; 11 FN member communities recently and happily announced that they will be participating in the Coastal GasLink Project.

Resource development, particularly natural gas and mining, is turning out to be a perfect vehicle for meaningful FN engagement and uplifting across the country.

The federal government is at odds with almost every region of Canada save urban power centers, and it is at odds with First Nations dreams of resource development participation. Despite the singular UN/Euro focus, the feds are at odds with every country that is signalling that it needs more hydrocarbons not just next month but for years to come (which is most of them).

So: I would evaluate Trudeau’s climate plan thusly: “Yes world, we hear you, you need more hydrocarbons, and we will help but only for a few months. Our stated goal is to discourage all investment in those fuels you are so desperately in need of. We aren’t interested in First Nations ideas if they run counter to our federal ideology, but don’t call that colonization because we don’t like it when you do that.

We are going to hamstring our own population rather than maximizing our natural resource sector. We present a hopelessly unrealistic scheme to get every Canadian in an EV for any purpose, but have no interest in a game plan to develop energy transition materials that the world absolutely must have to even begin a transition. We don’t care about earning respect in Red Deer or Moose Jaw or Kenora or Labrador City; we care about it in downtown Vancouver and Toronto and Montreal and Brussels.”

The world is running out of fuel. This is obvious. It is not temporary (for example, Algeria is holding talks with Italy on how to increase gas supply over the next decade or two). You can decide for yourself if the risk of running out of heating fuel is more consequential to humanity than the risk dreamed up by computer-modelled predictions of 2050 weather with error bars a mile wide.

Our leadership has joined a cult and is not paying attention to energy reality, in part because our reliable hydrocarbon sector will bail it out regardless of what the federal government does, until the burden becomes too great and it implodes. 

The global game of energy chess continues, and Canada’s leadership is chewing on a pawn until someone slaps it out of their hand. And we’ll vote this government in again, because too many urban elites understand energy only through the warped, impractical lens of academia, and would rather eat compost than visit a natural gas plant.

So plan away, little feds; put on that blindfold and run.

Slava Ukraini! Find out how the world got into such a calamitous energy state, and how to get out – pick up  “The End of Fossil Fuel Insanity” at Amazon.ca, Indigo.ca, or Amazon.com. Thanks for the support.29dk2902lhttps://boereport.com/29dk2902l.html

Read more insightful analysis from Terry Etam here, or email Terry here. PS: Dear email correspondents, the email flow is welcome, but am having trouble keeping up. Apologies if comments/questions go unanswered; they are not ignored.

From Polar Bear Science

Dr. Susan Crockford

The average sea ice cover at the end of March is the metric used to compare ‘winter’ ice to previous years or decades, not the single-day date of ‘most’ ice. This year, March ended with 14.6 mkm2 of sea ice, most of which (but not all) is critical polar bear habitat. Ice charts showing this are below.

But note that ice over Hudson Bay, which is an almost-enclosed sea used by thousands of polar bears at this time of year, tends to continue to thicken from March into May: these two charts for 2020 show medium green becoming dark green, indicating ice >1.2 m thick, even as some areas of open water appear.

Sea ice coverage at March 31 2022

Ice extent, via NSIDC

2022 compared to previous years, below:

To keep the above graph in perspective (which because of the scale looks like a huge decline), see the graph below showing extent for March vs. September to 2021

Ice concentration (>50%), via University Bremen

Canadian sea ice extent and thickness, via CIS

Overall

Western Canada, glossary for ice colour codes here

Hudson Bay

Eastern Canada

East Coast

Chukchi/Bering Sea, via Alaska Sea Ice Program

Barents/Greenland/Kara Seas, via Norwegian Ice Service

Svalbard closeup

Southern Greenland/Davis Strait closeup, via NSIDC

Overall, nothing spectacular in terms of change compared to last few years: still lots of ice for polar bears to hunt upon for newborn seals, which they will be doing now in almost all regions.