Month: April 2022

How the electricity market works

This post is addressed, to Robert Colville, the director of the Centre for Policy Studies, who has formed some mistaken views about what might be done to bring electricity prices down. This is understandable; there is a lot of misinformation out there, and the truth is counterintuitive. This is my attempt to explain it.

Dear Robert (if I may)

Over the weekend, you wondered why people were telling you that windfarms were very expensive. You pointed to a graph you had seen of the costs of various forms of generation, which seemed to show that onshore wind was very cheap. If the cost of onshore wind is so low, you wondered, how could more of it drive up the price of electricity?

This post is an attempt to explain what is going on.

There are three things you need to understand before we can get to the nitty gritty. Firstly, cost and price are different. Cost is what it takes you to make, buy or produce something. Price is what you sell it for.

Secondly, electricity is a commodity. In other words, when people are selling it, they are all selling the same thing.

Thirdly, everyone in the electricity market is a rapacious capitalist (just as they are in all markets).

Now to the detail. The second of these points has important implications for the way the market works. Different electricity generators have different costs – some can produce more cheaply than others. But this doesn’t make them reduce their prices – they are rapacious capitalists, after all. Instead, they try to get just as much cash for their electricity as they possibly can.

How much is that? Well, each day, everyone in the market has to make bids to deliver power the following day. Depending on demand, the grid might need more or less supply. If demand is high, they might need to call on more expensive generators to switch on. If demand is low, not so much. So the game that everyone plays is to work out who is the most expensive generator that will have to operate, and more importantly, how much they will demand to switch on. Then, everybody tries to bid, near as dammit, the same price.

The result is that everyone in the market ends up being paid more or less the same amount – the same amount as the generator who needs the most to get them to switch on. In the UK, this “marginal generator” (in the jargon) is almost always a gas-fired power station.

This all has very important implications for energy policy. For example, and for the purposes of your tweets over the weekend, Robert, it doesn’t matter whether wind is lower cost than gas-fired power or not. Everyone is paid the gas-fired price anyway! (Note the difference between cost and price here.)

Unfortunately though, these market mechanics also have important implications for your preferred energy policy – namely to increase the use of onshore wind. If you have more wind (onshore or offshore, it makes no difference), then gas-fired power stations will run less often. That means that when they do run they will have to charge a higher price. And since everyone in the market gets the same price as the gas-fired power stations, almost everybody in the market wins. They all get higher prices, paid for by consumers, except for the gas-fired power stations, who will have both higher costs and higher prices.

So to spell it out once again, a policy of expanding the use of wind power will increase consumer prices, even if the costs of wind are lower.

In a second post, I’ll show that the costs of wind aren’t actually lower at all. But that’s enough for one evening.

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April 4, 2022 at 03:22AM

Game Over: Vlad Putin’s Ukrainian Invasion Spells The End For ‘Green’ Energy Dream

All of a sudden, energy security and affordability is the new black. The Russian onslaught in Ukraine has focused thinking on energy supplies, like nothing before.

The West has taken its energy advantages for granted, for far too long. But, the energy pricing and supply calamity that’s followed Vlad’s aggressive bid for territorial expansion, has drawn attention to just how delusional is the claim that we’re well on our way to an all-wind and sun-powered future.

That purported ‘transition’ now looks more like a pre-determined pathway to abject poverty.

Viv Forbes spells it out for the uninitiated, below.

Power not poverty
Spectator Australia
Viv Forbes
16 March 2022

‘The past was green and fuzzy – the future is black and ominous.’ – Richard Sebrof

The green fairy-tale is over.

Even the green cheer squad in the bureaucracy and the media can sense the change. The sudden end was signalled by rolling columns of Russian tanks, quickly followed by surging prices for oil, gas, coal, wheat, and barley.

For decades, one-worlders and greedy industrialists have sung the green songs – lauding wind/solar energy, worshipping hydrogen, and condemning coal, oil, gas, and nuclear. Their doomsday chorus was taken up by tweeting teenagers and trendy adults in the green leafy suburbs – most of them supported in soft-chair jobs in media, bureaucracy and big woke corporations.

John Kerry (a rich climate-obsessed American aristocrat) worries that the Ukraine war ‘could have a profound negative impact on the climate’. He is more concerned about beneficial emissions of life-supporting CO2 than about lethal bullets, missiles, and starvation.

Russia, China, and India have focussed on developing and using their best energy resources, but Australia (following the Pied Pipers of Europe) has a bi-partisan policy to keep spreading the climate virus and subsidising more expensive green toys imported from China.

But, at long last, sanity is surfacing – Nigel Farage (the UK Brexiteer) has rung the full-time bell on climate alarmism with his new slogan against Net Zero madness – ‘Vote Power not Poverty’.

Just one late snowstorm in Berlin, a food riot in Cairo, or a blackout in New York will start the green rout.

The world is becoming a cold, hungry, and dangerous place. Food is not produced in green forests, electricity is not generated in big batteries, green hydrogen is a net consumer of energy, and we will not fight the next war with battery-powered tanks, wind-powered frigates, or an air force burning bio-fuels.

Just two years ago, Biden promised: ‘We are going to get rid of fossil fuels.’

It’s time to drag green dreamers and climate alarmists into the real world where food, fuels, metals, electricity, and defensive weapons are produced. This must start by cleaning the green horse manure from the ‘Net Zero’ stables.

Putin’s tanks and missiles have started this process. Europeans now face the truth that coal, oil, nuclear, and gas provide most of the power for their homes, factories, industry, transportation, and agriculture. Without them, big cities die.

We need more Hydrocarbon Power, more Nuclear Power, and less Un-reliables.

The world has changed. We can no longer afford ‘Net Negative Energy’ or ‘Building Back Worse’.
Spectator Australia

Green dream’s assassin.

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April 4, 2022 at 02:30AM

Joe Biden: Please Remember Obama’s Oil Moment (affordable energy for the masses)

“Now, under my administration, America is producing more oil today than at any time in the last eight years.  That’s important to know…. So we are drilling all over the place — right now.”

“But the fact is that my administration has approved dozens of new oil and gas pipelines over the last three years -– including one from Canada.  And as long as I’m President, we’re going to keep on encouraging oil development and infrastructure….” 

It was ten years ago in the pipe yard of Cushing, Oklahoma, when oil prices were high and consumers were chafing at the pump. And hesitation not, President Obama gave a pro-oil speech that the Progressive Left fumed over. But Biden should have backbone–or at least his puppeteers a heart for average Americans with the driving season just ahead.

Remember Obama’s Cushing Oil Moment in light of DOE Secretary Jennifer Granholm’s plea to the oil and gas industry for more output right now. (“We are on a war footing—an emergency—and we have to responsibly increase short-term supply,” she said at CERAWeek ’22. “And that means you producing more right now, where and if you can.”

The speech of ten years ago follows:

————————————-

Remarks by the President on American-Made Energy

(Cushing Pipe Yard: Cushing, Oklahoma March 22, 2012)

It is good to be back in Oklahoma.  I haven’t been back here since the campaign, and everybody looks like they’re doing just fine.  Thank you so much for your hospitality.  It is wonderful to be here. 

Yesterday, I visited Nevada and New Mexico to talk about what we’re calling an all-of-the-above energy strategy.  It’s a strategy that will keep us on track to further reduce our dependence on foreign oil, put more people back to work, and ultimately help to curb the spike in gas prices that we’re seeing year after year after year.

So today, I’ve come to Cushing, an oil town because producing more oil and gas here at home has been, and will continue to be, a critical part of an all-of-the-above energy strategy. 

Now, under my administration, America is producing more oil today than at any time in the last eight years.  That’s important to know.  Over the last three years, I’ve directed my administration to open up millions of acres for gas and oil exploration across 23 different states. 

We’re opening up more than 75 percent of our potential oil resources offshore.  We’ve quadrupled the number of operating rigs to a record high.  We’ve added enough new oil and gas pipeline to encircle the Earth and then some.

So we are drilling all over the place — right now.  That’s not the challenge.  That’s not the problem.  In fact, the problem in a place like Cushing is that we’re actually producing so much oil and gas in places like North Dakota and Colorado that we don’t have enough pipeline capacity to transport all of it to where it needs to go — both to refineries, and then, eventually, all across the country and around the world. 

There’s a bottleneck right here because we can’t get enough of the oil to our refineries fast enough.  And if we could, then we would be able to increase our oil supplies at a time when they’re needed as much as possible.

Now, right now, a company called TransCanada has applied to build a new pipeline to speed more oil from Cushing to state-of-the-art refineries down on the Gulf Coast.  And today, I’m directing my administration to cut through the red tape, break through the bureaucratic hurdles, and make this project a priority, to go ahead and get it done. 

Now, you wouldn’t know all this from listening to the television set.  This whole issue of the Keystone pipeline had generated, obviously, a lot of controversy and a lot of politics.  And that’s because the original route from Canada into the United States was planned through an area in Nebraska that supplies some drinking water for nearly 2 million Americans, and irrigation for a good portion of America’s croplands.  And Nebraskans of all political stripes — including the Republican governor there — raised some concerns about the safety and wisdom of that route. 

So to be extra careful that the construction of the pipeline in an area like that wouldn’t put the health and the safety of the American people at risk, our experts said that we needed a certain amount of time to review the project.  Unfortunately, Congress decided they wanted their own timeline — not the company, not the experts, but members of Congress who decided this might be a fun political issue, decided to try to intervene and make it impossible for us to make an informed decision.

So what we’ve said to the company is, we’re happy to review future permits.  And today, we’re making this new pipeline from Cushing to the Gulf a priority.  So the southern leg of it we’re making a priority, and we’re going to go ahead and get that done. The northern portion of it we’re going to have to review properly to make sure that the health and safety of the American people are protected.  That’s common sense. 

But the fact is that my administration has approved dozens of new oil and gas pipelines over the last three years -– including one from Canada.  And as long as I’m President, we’re going to keep on encouraging oil development and infrastructure and we’re going to do it in a way that protects the health and safety of the American people.  We don’t have to choose between one or the other, we can do both. 

So if you guys are talking to your friends, your neighbors, your coworkers, your aunts or uncles and they’re wondering what’s going on in terms of oil production, you just tell them anybody who suggests that somehow we’re suppressing domestic oil production isn’t paying attention.  They are not paying attention.

What you also need to tell them is anybody who says that just drilling more gas and more oil by itself will bring down gas prices tomorrow or the next day or even next year, they’re also not paying attention.  They’re not playing it straight.  Because we are drilling more, we are producing more.  But the fact is, producing more oil at home isn’t enough by itself to bring gas prices down.

And the reason is we’ve got an oil market that is global, that is worldwide.  And I’ve been saying for the last few weeks, and I want everybody to understand this, we use 20 percent of the world’s oil; we only produce 2 percent of the world’s oil.  Even if we opened every inch of the country — if I put a oil rig on the South Lawn if we had one right next to the Washington Monument, even if we drilled every little bit of this great country of ours, we’d still have to buy the rest of our needs from someplace else if we keep on using the same amount of energy, the same amount of oil. 

The price of oil will still be set by the global market.  And that means every time there’s tensions that rise in the Middle East — which is what’s happening right now — so will the price of gas.  The main reason the gas prices are high right now is because people are worried about what’s happening with Iran.  It doesn’t have to do with domestic oil production.  It has to do with the oil markets looking and saying, you know what, if something happens there could be trouble and so we’re going to price oil higher just in case.

Now, that’s not the future that we went.  We don’t want to be vulnerable to something that’s happening on the other side of the world somehow affecting our economy, or hurting a lot of folks who have to drive to get to work.  That’s not the future I want for America.  That’s not the future I want for our kids.  I want us to control our own energy destiny.  I want us to determine our own course.

So, yes, we’re going to keep on drilling.  Yes, we’re going to keep on emphasizing production.  Yes, we’re going to make sure that we can get oil to where it’s needed.  But what we’re also going to be doing as part of an all-of-the-above strategy is looking at how we can continually improve the utilization of renewable energy sources, new clean energy sources, and how do we become more efficient in our use of energy. 

That means producing more biofuels, which can be great for our farmers and great for rural economies.  It means more fuel-efficient cars.  It means more solar power.  It means more wind power — which, by the way, nearly tripled here in Oklahoma over the past three years in part because of some of our policies.

We want every source of American-made energy.  I don’t want the energy jobs of tomorrow going to other countries.  I want them here in the United States of America.  And that’s what an all-of-the-above strategy is all about.  That’s how we break our dependence on foreign oil.

Now, the good news is we’re already seeing progress.  Yesterday, I went, in Nevada, to the largest solar plant of its kind anywhere in the country.  Hundreds of workers built it.  It’s powering thousands of homes, and they’re expanding to tens of thousands of homes more as they put more capacity online.

After 30 years of not doing anything, we finally increased fuel-efficiency standards on cars and trucks, and Americans are now designing and building cars that will go nearly twice as far on the same gallon of gas by the middle of the next decade.  And that’s going to save the average family $8,000 over the life of a car.  And it’s going to save a lot of companies a lot of money because they’re hurt by rising fuel costs, as well.

All of these steps have helped put America on the path to greater energy independence.  Since I took office, our dependence on foreign oil has gone down every single year.  Last year, we imported 1 million fewer barrels per day than the year before.  Think about that.  America, at a time when we’re growing, is actually importing less oil from overseas because we’re using it smarter and more efficiently.  America is now importing less than half the oil we use for the first time in more than a decade.

So the key is to keep it going, Oklahoma.  We’ve got to make sure that we don’t go backwards, that we keep going forwards.  If we’re going to end our dependence on foreign oil, if we’re going to bring gas prices down once and for all, as opposed to just playing politics with it every single year, then what we’re going to have to do is to develop every single source of energy that we’ve got, every new technology that can help us become more efficient. 

We’ve got to use our innovation.  We’ve got to use our brain power.  We’ve got to use our creativity.  We’ve got to have a vision for the future, not just constantly looking backwards at the past.  That’s where we need to go.  That’s the future we can build. 

And that’s what America has always been about, is building the future.  We’ve always been at the cutting-edge.  We’re always ahead of the curve.  Whether it’s Thomas Edison or the Wright Brothers or Steve Jobs, we’re always thinking about what’s the next thing.  And that’s how we have to think about energy.  And if we do, not only are we going to see jobs and growth and success here in Cushing, Oklahoma, we’re going to see it all across the country.

All right?  Thank you very much, everybody.  God bless you.  God bless the United States of America. 

The post Joe Biden: Please Remember Obama’s Oil Moment (affordable energy for the masses) appeared first on Master Resource.

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April 4, 2022 at 01:09AM

Conflict in Ukraine Used to Push Green Agenda

Morano on Fox News Channel’s Tucker Carlson Tonight: “They know the Green New Deal won’t pass…The solution to the Russian invasion is the same solution to climate change, it happened to be the same solution to COVID too — which is more working from home, less driving, less freedom, more restrictions on your liberty. Regardless of the crisis, it always empowers the administrative state, the bureaucrats, and those in power. … 

They are going to rule by emergency declaration, by crisis management. This is how they want to do it. The COVID emergency declaration gave us, particularly in blue states, some red states, every governor became a dictator virtually overnight as they imposed whatever mandate they felt like. Whether it was masks, kids, vaccine passports, you name it, they could do it because they were empowered.”

Rough Transcript:

Tucker Carlson: There’s a reason they are focused on Ukraine and it’s to give you the Green New Deal whether you want it or not. Marc Morano is the author of “Green Fraud: Why the Green New Deal is Even Worse than you think. He joins us tonight. 

Marc, thanks so much for coming on. You’ve written and thought so much and reported so much about the Green New Deal. No chance Congress would ever pass anything like that because nobody wants it, but a war into which we are now being drawn because of their policies is a perfect cover for giving us the Green New Deal whether we want it or not.

>> Marc Morano: Yes, it is. They introduced the green new deal in Congress and never scheduled hearings, votes, there were no town halls, there were no constituent services. No one wanted, they didn’t want to vote on it. They didn’t need a vote. Biden declared that every cabinet agency would be a climate agency. One of the biggest things about our energy that a lot of people miss is the defunding of our energy industry. Through the banking system, through the SEC. They are now forcing climate disclosures on everyone. They now have their claws — federally regulators — in every aspect of pretty much of any business going forward if this keeps up, without a vote of Congress. That’s what they’re looking for.

And they know the Green New Deal won’t pass. The Covid lockdowns actually gave them many aspects of the Green New Deal with the immediate lockdowns, but now going forward, they are doubling down, using the Russian invasion.

The solution to the Russian invasion is the same solution to climate change, it happened to be the same solution to COVID too — which is more working from home, less driving, less freedom, more restrictions on your liberty. Regardless of the crisis, it always empowers the administrative state, the bureaucrats, and those in power.

>> Tucker Carlson: That may be the point of the crisis is to do that and this is not a civics show but I hear the word “democracy” roll off the tongues of virtually every authoritarian in Washington. Is this how democracy works? You use a diversion to get massive societal changes around the legislature and impose them by force? Is that what democracy is?

>> Marc Morano: No. What they’ve decided as they are going to rule by emergency declaration, by crisis management. This is how they want to do it. The COVID emergency declaration gave us, particularly in blue states, some red states, every governor became a dictator virtually overnight as they imposed whatever mandate they felt like. Whether it was masks, kids, vaccine passports, you name it, they could do it because they were empowered.

Look back in history, the fall of the Roman Republic into an empire was due to the abuse of emergency powers. So was the centralization of power in the middle ages.  The German republic, 1933, 12-year (state of emergency) declaration in Germany led to of course all the abuses in Germany.

Now we’ve got the Patriot Act,(due to 9/11’s 2001 Declaration of National Emergency), through this kind of crisis management. Now they are using, right after the Covid crisis, they’re going to pile on with this. People would not volunteer to give up their cars, or their SUVs. But now you have reports like International Energy Agency calling for stopping the driving of cars on Sunday, they want to do odd/even license plates for when you can drive, lowering speed limits, SUV taxes. Because we are in this energy crisis. They are achieving policies that they could never get through the elections.

>> Tucker Carlson: The people who will tell you the oceans are rising are buying $30 million houses on the beach. I don’t believe you anymore!
[Laughs] Marc Morano, we are out of time but I appreciate you coming on.

>> Marc Morano: Thanks, Tucker.

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April 4, 2022 at 12:37AM