By Paul Homewood
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/10/02/fact-checking-bbcs-hurricane-reality-check/
You will recall the BBC’s Reality Check, which claimed that “there’s evidence they’re [hurricanes] getting more powerful”, which I raised a complaint over.
I have just received their Stage i response, which is the usual fob off.
I have fired back this:
1) Your response is that hurricane intensity has increased over the past 40 years.
However the IPCC report you quote clearly states: "There is low confidence in long term (multidecadal to centennial) trends in the frequency of tropical cyclones". As the links I have already provided state, there was a dip in Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1960s to 80s, since which hurricane activity and intensity has returned to earlier levels. The dip was associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, a natural cycle. (See here: https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/faq/amo_faq.php)
It is grossly misleading to not report the longer term trends. The NASA report you quote also only mentions "since 1980". Readers are surely entitled to the full picture.
2) Regarding naming of storms, your reply totally fails to address my original complaint that the increase in named storms is due to better observation. Consequently your report is grossly misleading, as it implies hurricanes are becoming more frequent
3) Re Hurricane Ida, the video claims that the heavy rainfall over New York is an example of how climate change is affecting hurricanes. However you fail to offer any evidence that Ida’s rainfall was in any way unusual, or that such events are becoming more common or intense.
The video ends by claiming: "“The current evidence suggests that ….. hurricanes that do develop have the potential to be stronger, wetter and more devastating” There is no evidence to support any of this.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
December 5, 2022 at 08:45AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 