By Paul Homewood
h/t Dennis Ambler
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FAKE NEWS ALERT!!
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In just three years’ time, the world will get more power from wind and solar sources than from coal, according to the International Energy Agency.
The IEA predicts in a report that, over the next five years, the world will increase its renewable power capacity by 75% — an amount equivalent to the entire installed power capacity of China today. By 2027, the biggest source of the world’s electricity will be solar power, followed by coal, natural gas and wind, the group said.
"Renewables were already expanding quickly, but the global energy crisis has kicked them into an extraordinary new phase of even faster growth," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement.
If you find this news unbelievable, you would be right!
This is what the IEA press release says:
The global energy crisis is driving a sharp acceleration in installations of renewable power, with total capacity growth worldwide set to almost double in the next five years, overtaking coal as the largest source of electricity generation along the way and helping keep alive the possibility of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, the IEA says in a new report.
Energy security concerns caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have motivated countries to increasingly turn to renewables such as solar and wind to reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, whose prices have spiked dramatically. Global renewable power capacity is now expected to grow by 2 400 gigawatts (GW) over the 2022-2027 period, an amount equal to the entire power capacity of China today, according to Renewables 2022, the latest edition of the IEA’s annual report on the sector.
This massive expected increase is 30% higher than the amount of growth that was forecast just a year ago, highlighting how quickly governments have thrown additional policy weight behind renewables. The report finds that renewables are set to account for over 90% of global electricity expansion over the next five years, overtaking coal to become the largest source of global electricity by early 2025.
“Renewables were already expanding quickly, but the global energy crisis has kicked them into an extraordinary new phase of even faster growth as countries seek to capitalise on their energy security benefits. The world is set to add as much renewable power in the next 5 years as it did in the previous 20 years,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. “This is a clear example of how the current energy crisis can be a historic turning point towards a cleaner and more secure energy system. Renewables’ continued acceleration is critical to help keep the door open to limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.”
Utility-scale solar PV and onshore wind are the cheapest options for new electricity generation in a significant majority of countries worldwide. Global solar PV capacity is set to almost triple over the 2022-2027 period, surpassing coal and becoming the largest source of power capacity in the world. The report also forecasts an acceleration of installations of solar panels on residential and commercial rooftops, which help consumers reduce energy bills. Global wind capacity almost doubles in the forecast period, with offshore projects accounting for one-fifth of the growth. Together, wind and solar will account for over 90% of the renewable power capacity that is added over the next five years.
They also talk about solar overtaking coal as the largest source of electricity generation. But later they only say that solar will become the largest source of power capacity in the world. So which is it?
The actual report makes things clearer though:
So the CBS claim that “ By 2027, the biggest source of the world’s electricity will be solar power, followed by coal, natural gas and wind” simply is not true. It is only solar capacity which will be greater.
Given that solar power may only run at 10% of capacity, while coal can run at 80% or more, the comparison is meaningless.
When we look at generation, however, it is a totally different story:
BP Energy Review
Even with the additional solar and wind power forecast, solar will still account for 10% of the world’s power. Fossil fuels, by contrast, will provide 61%. The IEA do not make a forecast for any extra coal power, which there will almost certainly be. So in reality, the share of fossil fuels will be even higher.
The extra solar and wind generation coming on stream will average about 600 TWh a year. However total electricity consumption has been rising at 700 TWh a year, so renewable growth will not even keep up with increasing demand.
Regardless of Fatih Birol’s spin, renewable energy will still be a minor player in five years time. More importantly, there is no evidence that the world can run on intermittent wind and solar power alone.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
December 13, 2022 at 04:37AM
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