Recently, we’ve seen an event that has added fuel to the ongoing debate surrounding climate change and its real-world effects. The case in question involves Russia’s latest icebreaker, the Yevpatii Kolovrat, having to take a longer route to reach its Pacific fleet due to impassable heavy ice in Arctic waters.

This event raises important questions for those who are concerned about “alarmist” perspectives on climate change. Despite repeated warnings about melting ice caps and rising sea levels, here we have an icebreaker, designed to carve a path through icy waters, being diverted by unusually heavy ice. The ice was so thick, in fact, that even the Yevpatii Kolovrat, designed to deal with such environments, couldn’t pass through.

This incident underlines the inherent unpredictability in climate change predictions, particularly in relation to multi-year ice. While climate change models may predict the reduction of sea ice overall, they seem to struggle when it comes to accounting for these multi-year ice formations. This ice is built up over years or, averaging three to four metres thick, and is often dislodged and relocated as temperatures rise.

Recent observations in the Arctic region have shown an increase in this type of ice, which has disrupted the usual maritime routes since October 2022. If we are experiencing a global warming crisis as intense as many suggest, shouldn’t we be seeing a decrease in such significant ice formations?

It’s also worth noting that while Canada’s federal auditor general reported a drop of about 40 per cent in average summer sea-ice coverage in the Canadian Arctic over the last 50 years due to climate change, the enduring multi-year sea ice seems to have increased. This has disrupted shipping lanes and caught governments and organizations off guard.

The Canadian government, in particular, has come under scrutiny for its lack of preparedness in dealing with the issues posed by rising multi-year ice. As a country with an extensive Arctic coastline, this lack of preparation raises serious questions about how well we understand and can predict the impacts of climate change.

So, while many continue to discuss and predict an ever-warming world with melting ice caps and rising seas, events like the detour of the Yevpatii Kolovrat paint a more complex picture of climate realities. Climate change is not as straightforward as some might have us believe, and predicting its exact course is proving to be a challenge even for those with the most advanced tools at their disposal.

As climate skeptics, we believe that it’s essential to approach climate change with a rational perspective, acknowledging the complexity of our planet’s climate system and the considerable uncertainties that still exist in our understanding. Alarmism does little to advance meaningful conversation and thoughtful action on this critical issue.