Talkshop readers will remember the post last month looking at PIOMAS ice volume data in relation to two alternate futures. One is the future predicted by IPCC scientists that says we’re heading for an ice-free Arctic in summer 2035 on a fairly linear trend all the way down from when the satellite record begins (well, the section they show us anyway). The other is the sceptical null hypothesis, that Arctic ice variation is natural, cyclic, and probably following the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
These two alternatives appear on our plot below, along with the updated PIOMAS volume data. Up until now, both possible futures have been plausible, within two-sigma envelopes (not shown this time), with a few outliers for either scenario. This month’s updated current datapoint lies very close to the 65 year sinusoidal oscillation model’s median line, and just within the two-sigma envelope of the linear model. Click through to see the plot below the break.
Whether you see a sinusoidal or linear trend in the data probably depends on whether you’re an alarmist or sceptic at this point, but as the months go by, it should become clearer as Mama Nature perform the experimentum crucis for us.
via Tallbloke’s Talkshop
June 21, 2023 at 09:06AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 