Volcanic eruption
The idea proposed here of climate model forecasts becoming ‘more robust’ by including smaller effects depends on them being robust to some degree in the first place, which is open to question given their output to date.
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Researchers have found that the cooling effect that volcanic eruptions have on Earth’s surface temperature is likely underestimated by a factor of two, and potentially as much as a factor of four, in standard climate projections, says Phys.org.

While this effect is far from enough to offset the effects of global temperature rise caused by human activity [Talkshop comment – unsupported assertion], the researchers, led by the University of Cambridge, say that small-magnitude eruptions are responsible for as much as half of all the sulfur gases emitted into the upper atmosphere by volcanoes.

The results, reported in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, suggest that improving the…