As some Cliscep readers know, I’ve been planning over recent weeks to send a note to my MP, Bim Afolami, proposing a new climate change policy for the Tory party. Well, I’ve completed a draft of that note and set it out below. I’ve decided to do this before I send it to him so as to get what I hope might be useful criticisms, comments and/or suggestions.

Dear Bim,

I appreciate that you have little sympathy with my views on Net Zero. But, as you must have noticed, the project is going horribly wrong – possibly to the extent that it’s no longer affordable or workable. Moreover, because it’s increasingly unpopular, it’s looks as though it might be becoming politically toxic.

Some examples of current problems:

1. Businesses that have agreed to install major wind projects are finding that the costs of so doing are proving far greater than expected – mainly because of growing material and finance costs – and are threatening that, unless they get greatly increased subsidies, they may leave the UK. In addition, the costs of maintaining wind turbines are proving to be seriously expensive. Moreover, these costs do not cover backup power generation when the wind is not blowing hard enough, or blowing too hard – essential if we’re to avoid disastrous blackouts. Nor does it include the cost of building and running transmission lines from remote wind farms to places where people actually live (see note 2 below). I suggest these difficulties are an indication that wind power is not – and probably never will be – the cheap form of energy we were promised and therefore is not a route to achieving Net Zero.

2. Another emerging problem is the extreme difficulty of reengineering the National Grid to accommodate renewable energy; a result is that new projects are being delayed by as much as fifteen years. We’re told the ‘solution’ is the installation of hundreds of miles of high voltage cable requiring thousands of new pylons throughout the country. There’s little doubt that, as well as hugely expensive, this would be most unpopular. And that’s not all: local power distribution will also have to be reengineered to handle the needs of electric vehicles and electric heating. All this would be both disruptive and costly – hardy likely to appeal to already burdened householders and taxpayers.

3. Local climate initiatives such as London’s ULEZ scheme and various ’15 minute cities’ are heartily disliked by many ‘ordinary’ and particularly poorer people who want to get on with their lives and run their businesses without having to deal with such annoying inconvenience.

4. Ordinary people – and especially working class people – are getting increasingly annoyed by the actions of Just Stop Oil, Extinction Rebellion and the like. And, as their real motives become apparent, that dislike is likely to escalate. Yet the Labour Party seems strangely ambivalent about them and, to the dismay of Scottish oil workers, has even said it would follow Just Stop Oil’s demand by banning all new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea.

5. It’s becoming evident that plans for replacing conventionally powered vehicles with electric vehicles were a mistake: they’re too expensive, their range is a worry – made worse by a serious shortage of charging points and the fact that people without private driveways cannot conveniently charge such cars at home (another attack on ordinary and poorer people). And their second hand values are dreadful. Moreover, as well as all this, they’re a threat to the UK car industry.

6. Likewise, it’s becoming clear that the planned transition from gas boilers to heat pumps is a poor idea. Few people are interested: not only are they more expensive but, if they’re to work effectively, many (possibly most) properties require better insulation, larger radiators and pipework – all this costs a lot of money. Quite simply, most people cannot afford it. It’s no surprise that the country’s falling far behind the government’s installation target.

Yet, despite these problems and despite the fact that people are already facing huge increases in the cost of living and are strongly opposed to paying for climate action, it’s remarkable that so many politicians still support the Net Zero policy.

Is there a solution? Well, as you know, I consider Net Zero unachievable, potentially disastrous and, in any case, pointless; I believe it would be in Britain’s best interest to abandon it and adopt a new policy that takes full account of practical reality and especially of international political reality. But I have come to accept that none of Britain’s main political parties – including yours – is likely to agree. Nonetheless, I think there is a solution that accepts the need to eliminate emissions yet overcomes most of the problems to which I refer above. But in particular it’s a solution that would be welcomed by taxpayers, homeowners, motorists and ordinary voters throughout the country and therefore, as Labour seems to be especially committed to Net Zero, it also provides an important opportunity for the Conservative Party, facing the prospect of severe defeat at next year’s General Election, to establish popular ‘clear blue water’ between itself and Labour.

Here’s my suggestion: the Conservative Party should announce that, although it accepts that emissions have to be reduced, it’s also aware that most of the world is continuing to use fossil fuels – still over 80% of global primary energy – and that current UK policies are unpopular and hurting people who are struggling with the cost of living. Therefore the Party’s policy from hereon will be that, although Britain should aim to reduce its emissions, it will do so no more radically than other major economies – in particular China, the USA, India, Russia, Japan and Germany.

Your opponents will say that this policy ignores the fact that Britain is seen as a climate change leader and must continue to set an example. But the evidence shows that other countries do not follow our lead: for example, in 1990, the UK emitted 0.6 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO₂ and China and India 2.4 Gt and 0.6 Gt respectively. By 2021, the UK figure was 0.3 Gt – a 50% reduction. Yet China’s and India’s 2021 figures were 12.5 Gt and 2.6 Gt – 421% and 333% increases. No, the ‘leadership’ argument betrays an outdated, neo-colonial frame of mind. Emerging economies are not interested in following a Western lead and are confident that they’re capable of deciding for themselves and going their own way. It’s quite extraordinary that, of all people, the left are in effect arguing that old white men (politicians and scientists) in the West should be telling people of colour in the non-Western world (comprising 84% of humanity and all its poorest people) what they should be doing.

Best wishes

Robin Guenier, July 2023

Obviously, I’ve no idea whether this will have any impact; perhaps he won’t even bother to read it. But I’m hopeful that it might – as some of us have been discussing in comments on Jit’s article ‘The Green Green Green Benches of Home’, there are some signs that the Tory and interestingly the Labour leaderships are considering the possibility of softening the impact of net zero. It would be most satisfactory if this note were to contribute to a bidding war between the parties in the run-up to next year’s general election. But maybe that’s being over ambitious.

Robin