By Paul Homewood
h/t Philip Bratby
I may be one of the first scientists in the country to know that predicting long-term temperatures is not possible.
Almost 50 years ago, while in grad school, I had a contract from an Army research lab to use a state-of-the-art models to predict long-term temperatures. I quickly realized that the goal of the project, to forecast accurately the temperature long-term, was impossible because small errors in data inputs could result in huge forecasts errors. Equally important was that errors compounded so quickly that it caused the error ranges to explode. The results were junk. As an example, what good is a temperature forecast with an error range of plus or minus one hundred degrees?
I give university speeches to scientists and tell them: if you ever see some data or forecasts, your first question has to be "what’s the error range?" If you don’t know the error range, the data are almost useless. It’s not coincidental that the Climate Mafia don’t highlight this problem.
Full article here.
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
August 24, 2023 at 07:27AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 