“To everything there is a season, and a time for every purpose under the heaven”. The verse continues, “A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted; a time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up”
– Ecclesiastes 3:1
via Real Climate Science
September 15, 2023 at 09:34AM
Introduction
In the ever-evolving discourse surrounding climate change and energy policy, few topics generate as much debate as the alleged subsidies for fossil fuels. Tilak Doshi’s incisive article sheds light on the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recent claims regarding these subsidies, offering a critical examination of the figures and the motivations behind them.
The IMF’s Eye-Catching Headline
Legacy media, with its penchant for sensationalism, recently paraded a headline that would give even the most seasoned energy analyst pause: “Fossil fuels being subsidised at rate of $13 million a minute, says IMF”. Citing a staggering $7 trillion in support for fossil fuels in 2022, the claim is audacious, especially when juxtaposed against global expenditures on education and military.
“For those of us who have not completely given up on tracking legacy media headlines on climate issues due to the sheer noise-to-signal ratio, there was one recently that made even the most skeptical take notice.”
The Discrepancy in Estimates
The IMF’s figure starkly contrasts with estimates from other reputable institutions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) pegged global fossil fuel subsidies at a record $1.097 trillion in 2022, while the International Institute for Sustainable Development estimated them at $1.4 trillion for the G20 group.
“Why do these estimates vary? The differences in these estimates lie partly in varying methodologies employed to measure subsidies. They also reflect the inherently elastic nature of the subsidy concept.”
Understanding Subsidies: Not All Are Created Equal
Subsidies, in their essence, are government expenditures aimed at supporting specific sectors or demographics. They can be transparent, like price support for farmers, or opaque, favoring a particular industry or technology.
“A subsidy is government expenditure, in cash or kind (for example, a tax credit), in favor of households or firms as financial redistribution in the overall interest of the public.”
Deciphering the IMF’s “Subsidies”
The IMF’s classification of fossil fuel subsidies is intriguing. They differentiate between “explicit” subsidies, which refer to observable undercharging for fossil fuels, and “implicit” subsidies, which account for hypothesized costs of global warming and local air pollution.
“The fossil fuel subsidies identified by the IMF in its 2023 Update on Fossil Fuel Subsidies Data refer to “explicit” and “implicit” subsidies.”
The Flawed Logic of Implicit Subsidies
The IMF’s inclusion of “implicit” subsidies is a contentious point. By factoring in the costs of global warming, such as rising sea levels, extreme weather, and the spread of diseases, the IMF inflates the subsidy figure. However, this approach is problematic, as it doesn’t account for the positive externalities of fossil fuel use.
“While the IMF takes into account negative externalities in its measure of “efficient” fuel prices, it does not consider well-documented positive externalities of fossil fuel use in its report.”
The Greening Effect of Carbon Dioxide
One significant positive externality of increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the greening of Earth’s vegetated lands. This phenomenon, which has been observed over the past 35 years, is largely attributed to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.
“An important example of the positive externality of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is the significant greening of a quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide.”
The IMF’s Shift in Mandate
Historically, the IMF’s primary role was to maintain global financial stability. However, in recent years, the institution has expanded its purview to include climate change, aligning itself with the climate agendas of various governments.
“But what is an institution set up to act as a financial watchdog and first responder to countries in financial crisis doing dishing out advice on climate change?”
The Dangers of Overreach
The IMF’s foray into environmental policy is concerning. By delving into areas outside its expertise, the institution risks undermining its credibility and the efficiency of international capital markets.
“Climate policy is clearly beyond the scope of any financial regulator’s expertise. Given the uncertainty within the climate science community itself, there is no reason to believe that the IMF can have any greater understanding of climate risks.”
Conclusion
Tilak Doshi’s article offers a compelling critique of the IMF’s claims regarding fossil fuel subsidies. By highlighting the discrepancies in subsidy estimates and the flawed logic behind the IMF’s methodology, Doshi underscores the need for a more nuanced and informed discussion on energy policy.
via Watts Up With That?
September 15, 2023 at 08:02AM
By Paul Homewood
I may have covered this at the time in 2015, but it’s worth repeating:
Australia is the land of drought and flooding rains, and in a recent paper we’ve shown that’s been the case for more than 500 years. As part of our Australia and New Zealand Drought Atlas we’ve published the most detailed record of drought and wet periods (or “pluvials”) since 1500.
The data reveal that despite the severity of the Millennium Drought (2001 to 2008), the five worst single years of drought happened before 1900. But 2011 was the wettest year in our 513-year record.
The dominant theme of Australia’s drought history is variability. We may get one year of extremely wet conditions (for example in 2011) or we might get six years of extremely dry conditions (such as 2003-2009).
North Queensland may be flooded out while Victoria suffers with drought. Or in extreme circumstances, the entire eastern half of Australia might be bone dry.
The existing drought records are relatively short and geographically patchy. Measurements from weather stations rarely extend beyond the early 1900s and informal historical records from diaries and ships logs — some of which go back to the first days of European settlement in Australia — are relatively uncommon and limited to a few sites. This has limited our understanding of drought variability to what has been directly observed over the past 120 years.
To extend the drought record beyond 1900, we used 177 tree ring and coral records from Australia, New Zealand, and Indonesia to reconstruct summer (spanning December to February) drought conditions in New Zealand and most of Australia.
Trees and corals are sensitive to their environments. For example, trees grow less in dry years and more in wet years. We carefully examined, dated, and measured each growth ring in thousands of trees and then compared the patterns of growth to an index of drought variability, the Palmer Drought Severity Index.
Over the past five centuries we found extreme droughts similar to the recent Millennium Drought, but we also discovered wet periods that lasted decades.
We found short droughts of brutal intensity that blanketed all of eastern Australia, while other droughts of similar intensity were confined to small pockets across the continent.
The atlas also provides new geographical context for early historical droughts. For example, diaries from early settlers near Sydney documented a crippling drought in 1791-92. Our data demonstrate that this was one of the worst drought years in the past 500 years with extraordinarily dry conditions that stretched from Cape York to eastern Tasmania. The early colony was fortunate to survive.
An obvious question is how do our modern droughts and floods stack up against earlier events? Of the five most extreme single years of drought in the past 500 years (when averaged across all of eastern Australia), not one occurred after 1900.
In contrast, two of the five wettest years in our data took place after 1950 (2011 was the wettest year in the 513-year record). The 1700s were particularly dry with three of the five worst drought years, but also notably had the most prolonged wet period (1730-60).
In eastern Australia, wet and dry conditions cycle back and forth over several decades, driven by the oceans around us.
When we compared the data to a recently developed index of changing atmospheric pressure called the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), we found remarkable consistency between the two. The IPO tells us when we have unexpectedly warmer or cooler sea surface temps and air pressures. The IPO also interacts with El Nino and La Nina to make them stronger or weaker.
When the IPO was positive, eastern Australia experienced drought conditions for several decades; when it was negative, eastern Australia experienced pervasive wet conditions. From 1999-2012 we were in a negative phase of the IPO; now it appears we have just entered a strongly positive phase.
You may have noticed that the Millennium Drought happened in a negative IPO phase. Our data show that there is a strong relationship between the phases of the IPO and drought – until around 1976. After that the relationship gets weaker. Why is a question for further research, but one possibility is human-caused climate change.
This new data will help us understand what drives these swings between drought and floods, and help us predict what might happen in the future.
Their conclusions that droughts were much more extreme prior to 1900, and that the climate appears to be wetter are both significant.
The paper contains this reconstruction, based on the IPO index and tree ring data – negative values indicate drier conditions:
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124002/pdf
The severe droughts of the past stand out, notably the early 20thC ones and the 18thC, such as 1791-92:
It’s food for thought! One wonders what might have happened if that early colony had not survived?
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
September 15, 2023 at 05:45AM
Leftist energy ideology going off the rails.
The post Revoltin’ developments challenge EV mandates appeared first on CFACT.
via CFACT
September 15, 2023 at 04:28AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 