By Paul Homewood
I’ve been having fun with the chatbot again!
Are hurricanes becoming more intense?
>ChatGPT
There is scientific evidence suggesting that hurricanes have become more intense in recent decades. Studies have shown an increase in the frequency of stronger hurricanes, particularly in the North Atlantic Ocean. Warmer sea surface temperatures provide more energy for hurricanes, potentially leading to stronger and more intense storms.
However, it’s important to note that while there is a consensus among climate scientists that hurricanes are becoming more intense, the specific trends and patterns can vary by region. Additionally, other factors such as natural climate variability and changes in observational methods can also influence the perceived increase in hurricane intensity.
Climate change models generally predict that as the Earth continues to warm, hurricanes may become more intense on average. Still, predicting the exact future intensity and frequency of hurricanes is a complex task due to the interplay of various environmental factors. Ongoing research and monitoring are essential to better understand these patterns and make accurate predictions.
According to NOAA, “There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes, although by some measures, U.S. landfalling tropical cyclone activity for 2004-2010 was the strongest in the records since the late 1800s. Similarly for Atlantic basin-wide hurricane frequency (after adjusting for observing capabilities), there is not strong evidence for an increase since the late 1800s in hurricanes, major hurricanes, or the proportion of hurricanes that reach major hurricane intensity.”
ChatGPT
It appears you are referencing a statement from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It’s important to consider that the field of climate science is constantly evolving, and new research findings can lead to updated conclusions. The statement you provided might represent the understanding of hurricane trends up until the time of its publication. Scientific understanding can change as more data becomes available and as climate models improve.
Climate research is a complex and ongoing process that involves analyzing long-term data, studying various climate variables, and using advanced modeling techniques to make predictions. While specific trends and patterns in hurricane intensity and frequency can vary, the overall consensus in the scientific community is that as the Earth’s climate continues to warm due to human-induced factors like greenhouse gas emissions, there is a potential for more intense hurricanes in the future.
It’s essential to refer to the latest scientific studies and assessments from reputable sources like NOAA and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to stay updated on the current state of climate science and the understanding of hurricane trends.
The NOAA statement is in their report dated Oct 2023: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/ – so it is up to date
ChatGPT
I don’t have real-time internet access or the ability to browse external websites, so I cannot verify specific content from the NOAA report you mentioned. However, if the information you provided is accurate, it reflects the most recent assessment from the NOAA regarding hurricane trends. It’s important to rely on reputable sources and scientific organizations like NOAA for the latest and most accurate information on topics related to climate science and natural disasters. If you have any specific questions about the content of the report, please feel free to ask, and I’ll do my best to provide relevant information based on my training data up until January 2022.
I find your reply interesting and disconcerting! I assumed your answers reflected the actual facts and data easily available on the internet and official sources. Instead you say you rely on training data that’s two years old. Who programmed you with this training data?
ChatGPT
I understand your concerns, and I appreciate your feedback. I was trained by a team of researchers and engineers at OpenAI, a leading artificial intelligence research lab. My training data includes a mixture of licensed data, data created by human trainers, and publicly available data. I was trained on a diverse range of internet text, which allows me to generate responses based on patterns in the data I was trained on.
While my training data includes information up until January 2022, I do not have the ability to access or retrieve real-time data from the internet or external sources after that point. This means that my responses are based on the knowledge and information available up until that cutoff date. As a result, for the most current and specific information, especially on rapidly evolving topics like current events, it’s always best to refer to the latest reports and updates from reputable sources or consult experts in the field.
So as some of us suspected, the answers you get are not necessarily factual. Instead they are determined by the “training” given by the programmers!
via NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT
November 9, 2023 at 11:12AM
Iowa Climate Science Education 