In the above recent video, Dr. David Dilley explains how natural climate cycles portend Global Cooling in the near future despite any human effort to keep up the warming. The discussion is wide-ranging, starting his background and credentials, and covering climate political agendas and media distortions. My excerpted transcription below focuses on the science of climate cycles, along with charts Dilley refers to in his presentation.
Revisiting the Hockey Stick with New Data
Well the global warming alarm sounded in 1998 the famous hockey stick everyone’s heard of. This was a graphic done by Dr Michael Mann professor of Earth environmental science at the Pennsylvania State University in the United States of America. It’s called a hockey stick stick as he recreated the temperatures in the United States going back to 1,000 AD. The gray lines are are part of reconstruction where temperatures were higher or temperatures were lower, so they did the mean value of the temperatures. Starting around 100 AD they just showed temperatures were going down slightly during the past thousand years. Then in 1902 is when they first started to record temperatures and what happened look that’s the hockey stick the temperatures went up up up up up up.
Essentially the hockey stick is showing that we’ve only had one global warming cycle that started in 1902, according to Dr Mann. And we never had a global warming cycle prior to that. The problem is that this did hit the news big time. It sounded the alarm about climate change and it went worldwide. And when you you get a news item that sticks in your mind, it’s the very first article that comes out or big big news item so this sticks in people’s mind.
So they only go back to 1850, and most people don’t even know what
happened prior to 1850 because the media will not talk about it,
but we’re going to talk about it today
How did his Hockey stick graph work out and what we do know today? Well here’s the other science. This is the tree ring data and Ice core data from the antarctic and Greenland this is done by Source Beck in 2007. So this is after the hockey stick and it shows going back to 800 AD we see a global warming cycle number one. When that cools down there’s a global cooling cycle, and then global warming cycle number two, and afterwards, three, four, five and six. There is no hockey stick global warming. Cycles are natural and reoccurring. The problem with Mann et al. is they didn’t use the period 800 to 1,000 AD, maybe because they didn’t want you to see the warming back then. So they could create their hockey stick.
The Misconception of Global Warming
They have worked on their models since then and the models are better but the world media has it entrenched in their mind since the hockey stick was first put out. So there’s our six global warming Cycles this is on the right. We have our number six very warm, but not even as warm as a thousand years ago and people do not know this. So we have had six global warming Cycles during the past 1200 years not just one we’ve had six. During the past 8,000 years we have probably had 80 climate change Cycles; Not one but 80 cycles of global warming, global cooling. And this is what happens when a global warming cycle begins and they come about every 200 to 240 years.
What happens is the high Arctic and the mid Arctic begins to warm up and as it warms up then there’s less cool air to come down into the mid latitudes so the mid latitudes warm up. And that’s where we are today warm mid latitudes global warming we’re right at the tail end of it. And when it does end we go to global cooling this also comes every 200 to 240 years. What happens is the high arctic begins to cool down then then the whole Arctic begins to cool down and this eventually filters down into the mid latitudes and the mid latitudes cool off. And we are in a global cooling cycle and we’re beginning to see this happening.
The Inaccuracy of Al Gore’s Arctic Predictions
In 2007 former United States Vice President Al Gore he’s very famous around the world he won the Nobel Prize in conjunction with the IPCC which is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. and the reason he won it one reason is he quoted Professor Maslowski saying that the Arctic summer ice will be essentially gone in the year 2014 or 2015 the winter ice in the Arctic will be essentially gone around 2030 this made worldwide news.
And how did that work out? Here’s the arctic ice now Arctic ice extent as of November 16th, 2023. The gray line is the period 1981 through 2010 the Median and we’re starting to approach that. That’s more ice now than about seven eight years. So here we are in the year 2023 the high Arctic or the Arctic has the greatest ice extent in 11 years. And we’re recovering almost back to the period of 20 years ago. Well Al Gore said it was going to be gone, it’s not, it’s actually increasing.
Hitting the news back in 2019 a United States congresswoman said the world will end in 12 years in 2031. We’re going to just burn up and world will be gone. And how did that work out? In reality the High Polar cooling is under way.
Antarctica winter of 2021 coldest on record doesn’t sound like it’s burning up to me. Here’s the high Arctic in 2022 and 2023. The blue line is the normal Ice, normal average temperatures during the period 1958 to 2002 which was a cold period. The the orange line is the current temperatures showing the years 2022 and 2023. That’s two years in a row they’ve had the coldest spring and summer on record in the High Arctic. I have it shaded in blue beginning in April spring and ending in mid to late August, ending of their summer. You can see the orange line is all below normal temperatures two years in a row. I looked at all the temperatures going back to 1958 it has not happened even once during that period. This is showing the high Arctic is cooling down; and what’s going to cool down next the mid Arctic, and after that the mid latitudes.
The Reality of Current Global Temperatures
This story just came out on the 14th of November of this year that 2023 the world is warmer than any time in recorded history and possibly in the past 125,000 years. This was put out by Climate Central and also the fifth National Climate Assessment from the United States Global change research program. Well the thing is history only goes back to 1880 on recorded history that that’s it. 1880
And I’m going to show you another issue on this also in the upcoming slides. Actual recording of temperature by instruments was not available prior to 1980 and since. Prior to that we’ve had 32 global warming Cycles. So this is not true. And another thing is this report went right up through Octobe and it’s true through October of this year it has been extremely warm warm as since 1880.
However everyone across the mid latitudes of the United States into Europe and Asia has probably noticed that the end of October and November in a lot of these areas has been colder or nearly normal. This report is going to have a hard time verifying being the warmest on record because we are cooling down. Yet they’re showing warmest on record and the warming will continue.
The Impact of Ocean Temperatures on Climate
They record global temperatures what we call anomalies above the below normal temperature with satellite it incorporates land areas which is only 29% of the Earth’s surface oceans are 71% of the Earth’s surface. So they’re including the oceans into the Earth’s temperature and it’s true the oceans are very warm right now.
Included into saying this is the World’s temperature right now is we are having what we call an El Nino. When that occurs South America is right here where my cursor is on the right hand side of the globe when that occurs the ocean water becomes very warm, way above normal water temperatures.l and and band all the way across the Pacific that’s an El Nino. Then there’s mLa Nina which is the opposite water cools down all of a sudden. The Blue is all cold water showing La Nina.
So we’re in a El Nino right now that’s very warm and that’s going to end around April 2024 or later in 2024. After that through 2026, it’s going to cool down. Now the Pacific Ocean has what we call the PDO which is Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This is going back 500 years back to 1500 AD reconstruction of water temperatures in Pacific. What we see are warm and cool Cycles, warm and cool Cycles, warm and cool Cycles warm. These Cycles last about 40 years and here we are over on the right hand side. We’ve been in the warm cycle for 42 years in the Pacific Ocean. When the El Nino ends in 2024 most of the Pacific will be going into a cool phase cycle through the next probably 30 to 40 years anyway.
So in late 2024 the equator area is going to be probably cooler than normal and then the Pacific phase that’s coming in it’s going to cool down much of the rest of the Pacific and the Indian Ocean so we’re going to see a big change if we’re adding this into the world temperatures. Then we have the Atlantic Ocean also has cool phases and warm phases. Atlantic Ocean very warm phase in the late 1800s then it cooled down below normal temperatures the blue then it warmed up again 1927 through about 1960 before cooling down and then we entered the warm phase again around 1997.
NOAA the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the United States uses a 100-year average for water temperatures. I just blocked off the hundred years that they use so they use two cool Cycles one warm cycle they’re ignoring the warm cycle in the late 1800s and ignoring the warm cycle now. so what they’re doing is taking average during two cool Cycles there is the uh what they take right there so uh what they’re doing is 26 years of cool 39 years of cool and only 33 years of warm. So when we take the average of the Atlantic Ocean their figures going to show that the normal is colder than than your long term average by leaving out the other two time periods.
So that’s that’s even going to hurt more when the ocean starts cooling down because the Atlantic is going to go into its cool phase probably around 2034 and they’ll last up through about 2074. What I’m trying to show here is starting sometime next year, Pacific and Indian Oceans cool down and then by the mid 2030 the Atlantic Ocean would be below normal temperatures also so you add the these in and if the IPCC and NOAA figures out their world temperatures as they are today all of a sudden we’re gonna it’s not going to work for them they’re going to have to change their averages.
The Milankovitch Cycles and Climate Pulse Cycles
We’ve talked earlier so much about the political science it’s time to go to the real science. Let’s go over to proven science now regarding climate change.
These are the cycles and climate pulse Cycles historical and future climate change Cycles. The white line is the path we are on today. We’re 6,000 years off of coming out of the glacial period. And as the earth goes around the Sun it is an elliptical path but you can see it’s not really a extensive one. And we’re about 8,000 years off of the peak of the global warming cycle so we’re starting to actually come out of this. When you go into a glacial cycle or start going into it, what happens is the earth’s path around the Sun becomes more elliptical and it’s further away from the Sun–more elliptical that’s an ice age, shown by the yellow dotted line.
During the period we have right now the closest approach to the sun is in January and during the Ice Age it’s in July we so we have big changes in the tilt of the earth also changes on a 41,000 year cycle. That’s part of the glacial period aspect is the earth tilts up so that be Arctic and Antarctic receive less solar radiation. So this is what it looks like on the Cycles the end result about every 120,000 years or so this is a interglacial warm period this is back about 450 or 425,000 years ago then you can see it doesn’t last that long then you go into a deep Long glacial period and I’m kind of saying that the earth goes to sleep for a while then it warms up again big long glacial period about every 120,000 years.
Here we are over on the right came out of be glacial period
about 8,000 years ago and we’re supposed to be very warm.
This was a cycle we’re supposed to be warm.
The Role of Carbon Dioxide in Climate Change
The carbon dioxide also increases when temperature comes up. Carbon dioxide comes up a few thousand years or several hundred years after the temperature rises because it’s the colder oceans. I’ll show you in a second here as the temperature Peaks carbon dioxide Peaks a little bit later holds on you can see the carbon dioxide is still high with temperature going down as the World cools down and the oceans cool down the colder oceans absorb all the carbon dioxide or a lot of the carbon dioxide then release it again on the next glacial period and on this one about 338,000 years ago you can see the temperature peaked look at that carbon dioxide didn’t Peak for about 7 to 8,000 years later a long time after the peak temperature and this is what we see in all the Cycles.
Over on the right where we are today we came out of the glacial period 8,000 years ago got very warm like we’re supposed to carbon dioxide up to 412 parts per million. This is recorded instruments while we never had recorded instruments on the other Cycles. But it came up and 8,000 years later we’d expect carbon dioxide to Peak 8,000 years later. Here we are we came out of the glacial period 8,000 years ago got very very warm for 2,000 years. This is another natural warm cycle and the carbon dioxide is supposed to Peak now.
The Controversy Over Human Activity and Climate Change
Is the rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide since 1850 caused by human activity of burning of fossil fuel? United States government, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says yes it’s caused by human activity. The United Nations intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) says the same thing it’s all due to human activity and fossil fuel 100% they say rise since 1850 due to fossil fuel. However it is not, it is 80% natural according to research that I conducted. Scrable et al in a physics journal found the same thing 80% natural and the plants stomata 80% natural.
if you refer back to Tom Nelson podcast number 64 that uh we performed we go into detail on how these Corrections were made this is real science it’s also available on global weather cycles.com and just to give you a small look at it this research, it shows that the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere changes rapidly during the global warming and global cooling Cycles. At a global warming cycle back 800 AD, the carbon dioxide was way up to 375 Parts million whereas NOAA and IPCC says no it was about 290 parts per million. Then it goes down during global cooling Cycles, up and down these all global warming Cycles here.
And this is current plant stomata research, so this is 2010 showing 375 parts per million is what should be natural. We’re probably up closer to 390 parts per million natural now. One really interesting thing is the Thousand-Year mean of the plant stomata series and you come out to 301 parts per million and remember IPCC and NOAA say we’ve never been above 300 parts per million that’s because the ice core samples say we’ve only been up to 297 parts per million. But that’s a mean taken over the course of maybe three to 5,00 years. But that’s very close, 297 to 301 taking mean values. So the uh plant stomata readings are probably real, more than likely real, and we’re supposed to be very high carbon dioxide naturally. And this can all be found as I said on Tom Nelson podcast interview number 64 or global weather cycles.com. [See previous post David Dilley: Signals of Global Cooling ]
By doing the corrections this is what we show. The dashed line here is 300 parts per million but the ice core sample say we’ve never been above 300 parts per million and we’re up to 418 now. But as we corrected the research this is where the carbon dioxide on each interglacial warm period should be by the corrected value. Right now 378 plus parts per million is all natural and we’re at 418 parts per million so very little of it is due to fossil fuel.
The Natural Cycle of Global Warming and Cooling
Let’s take a look at shorter Cycles, alternating cycles of the climate change cycles for global warming and global cooling. Remember we talked about global warming begins in the Arctic and Antarctic as it warms up every 200 to 230 years. And then it warms up the mid latitudes. This cycle peaks out pretty much uh during the last 35 years of a cycle. And if 35 years of the cycle, we’re talking about 1990 warming up to right now 2023 that’s uh almost 35 years. So we are seeing right now, and then as we start cooling down the Arctic and I showed you the high Arctic has been having record cold during the Spring and Summers the past couple years and that will spread down into the Arctic in the next year or two or three and when that happens the Arctic whole Arctic cools and then it spreads down to the mid latitudes and this happens in the southern hemisphere also and for the temperature to cool down again it’ll peak out probably about 35 years after the onset of global cooling because it just keeps cooling just like global warming kept warming up so the coldest part of the global cooling will probably be more in the 2040s and 50s.
The global warming cycle which around 900 ad the next one ended 200 years later, then the next one ended 240 years later, the next 200 years later, next one 230 years later. So notice this pattern alternating between 200 and 230-40 years duration. So if we’re going every other cycle this one should end about 200 years from there Well the last global cooling cycle began in 1825 and year 1825 add 200 years to it we’re up to 2024 to 2025. We’re going into global cooling now.
via Science Matters
November 25, 2023 at 12:52PM
Iowa Climate Science Education 