Month: December 2023

Biden Admin Rolls Out Slew Of Regs Targeting Americans’ Appliances On Last Friday Of The Year

From the Daily Caller

Daily Caller News Foundation

NICK POPE

CONTRIBUTOR

The Department of Energy (DOE) finalized or proposed a bevy of regulatory actions cracking down on numerous appliances on Friday.

The DOE proposed new rules designed to promote “energy efficient” commercial fans and blowers, and also finalized energy efficiency standards for refrigerators and freezers, the agency announced Friday. The regulatory actions are the latest in a string of moves by the Biden administration intended to phase out a host of fossil fuel-powered appliances and replace them on the market with more energy efficient, and often electric, equivalents.

“Today’s announcement is a testament to the Biden-Harris Administration’s commitment to lowering utility costs for working families, which is helping to simultaneously strengthen energy independence and combat the climate crisis,” Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm said of her agency’s actions. “DOE will continue to move quickly in 2024—together with our industry partners and stakeholders—to update and strengthen outdated energy efficiency standards, which is critical to innovation, more consumer options, and healthier communities.” (RELATED: Biden Admin’s Latest Spending Spree Amounts To A Backdoor Ban On Gas-Powered Appliances, Experts Say)

REPORTER:

“We’ve seen them go after gas stoves…how many more home appliances will Americans eventually have to replace?” pic.twitter.com/JgjQyiPGK0

— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) July 24, 2023

Compliance with the finalized fridge and freezer standards will be required starting in either 2029 or 2030, depending on the model and configuration of the equipment, according to the agency. The DOE projects that the rule will cut carbon dioxide emissions by more than 100 million tons.

The proposed set of regulations are modeled on those already in place in California, according to the DOE. The regulations are expected to kick in starting in 2029 and are projected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by more than 300 million tons.

The Biden administration, led primarily by the DOE, has promulgated numerous regulatory actions that are designed to reduce the use of fossil fuel-powered appliances that tend to be cheaper up front than their more “energy efficient” counterparts. Other appliances the administration has sought to regulate include water heaters, gas-powered portable generatorsfurnaces and pool pump motors.

Numerous energy policy experts have asserted that the Biden administration’s regulatory blitz on appliances is likely to limit consumer choice and impose higher up-front costs for the sake of fighting climate change. The DOE, on the other hand, estimates that the full suite of energy efficiency regulations will provide approximately $1 trillion in consumer savings over the next 30 years.

The DOE did not respond immediately to a request for comment.

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December 31, 2023 at 04:54PM

Predictions for 2024 in UK Climate Politics

The key event for the UK will be an election in May, at which Labour will win a majority. I think it will be a small majority, but it will be a majority nonetheless. This result might be a double-edged sword: it will offer the possibility of opposition to bonkers plans actually having some bite, but on the other hand it may lead to the Conservatives not learning the lesson the sceptics would like them to learn. The Budget will be a sad last throw of the dice in which the Chancellor will not even throw the dice. How nice it would have been for the government to cut the green crap and dare the opposition to promise to reinstate it. But that is not the path we are on. The likely bribe will be an increase in the personal allowance, probably by a grand, starting with the new tax year. Labour still wins. The present government has gone through more incarnations than Doctor Who and is exhausted, at the end of its tether.

Labour’s stated policy is a prescription for national destruction, but the optimist in me says that it will run aground on the shoals of reality before too much damage is done. This depends, as I may have mentioned before, on the extent to which we the great unwashed will swallow the gaslighting BS that they are shovelling down our throats. What we believe causes our woes – whether some external force or government policy – is a key matter for the country. You already know that I believe that, when it comes to climate change, the “cure” is worse than the disease. The disease is mild, and the cure is no cure at all, but poison. Alas too few are persuaded of that view for now. Too many fall for the seductive idea that because wind turbines produce free electricity, then the more of them you have, the cheaper electricity becomes. This is a completely wrong idea, but the germ of truth that it holds appears to have the power to override more complex arguments around what a civilised nation requires from its electricity grid. I expect Labour to quadruple down on stupid, but there are a couple of other factors here. The first is that there is no magic wand that can instantly produce serried ranks of wind turbines up hill and down dale. Even a manic approach to renewables will produce pain that escalates only gradually. The second point is the corollary of the first: as the roll out is slow, as the difficulty of hiding the true drivers of our woes grows slowly, slow will be the dawning of the realisation that we are sawing off the branch we are sitting on.

Earlier crunches are inbound, and we know that whenever people are personally affected by Net Zero BS, they begin to oppose it. A generalised and theoretical approval of the goal of Net Zero becomes a particular and concrete opposition to at least one part of it when each of us realises that our part in all this is not as a mere bystander. The challenge for sceptics is to help people to connect the dots. What are the earlier crunches? We have the boiler tax, where because boiler manufacturers are going to be fined if they do not meet their quota of heat pumps, they will be forced to cross-subsidise heat pumps by upping the price of gas boilers – i.e. the heating systems people actually want to buy. It may only be a few hundred quid initially, but even this may have an effect on public opinion disproportionate to its effect on folks’ pockets. So far the true costs of climate policy to the ordinary punter have been kept well hidden. In 2024 it can be hidden no more. Now at last it comes to the fore.

At the same time as the advent of the boiler tax, we will have the ICE vehicle tax – a rather more daunting 15 grand for each vehicle beyond the manufacturer’s quota. By how much manufacturers will be over, and how much they plan to cross-subsidise their EVs is to me an imponderable matter for now. It may be that small petrol cars will be wiped out by the policy. But again the hit on folks’ pockets and freedoms will be impossible to keep hidden.

My prediction: by the end of next year we in the UK will be in a worse position climate policy-wise than we are now, and there will as yet be little gain in momentum for a change of course. I think there will be glimmers of hope. As they say, hope dies last. Which means I think that good sense will win out in the end, even if it takes a hell of a kicking along the way.

Please do append your predictions for 2024, particularly if mine seem off beam.

Let the turn in the year be a time for optimism and good health to all Clisceppers.

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December 31, 2023 at 02:24PM

Fear Not for Arctic Ice New Year 2024

Impressive Arctic ice recovery continued in December as seen in the animation below:

The month of December 2023 shows Hudson Bay (lower right) starting with some western shore ice and ending 92% ice covered, adding in that basin ~800k km2. Just above Hudson, you can see the Gulf of St. Lawrence icing over, and Baffin Bay adding ice as well, now up to 50% of its annual maximum.

At the extreme and lower left, Okhotsk and Bering Seas also start with little shore ice. Okhotsk grew ice extent from 57k km2 up to 530k, 62% of its max last March.  Bering grew from 48k up to 478k km2, 56% of its max.  At the top Kara freezes over and Barents and Greenland Seas add ice to their margins. The graph below shows the December ice recovery. (Day 365 coming, and may be delayed by holiday.)

Note the average year adds 2M km2 while 2023 added ~2.5M, now 361k km2 above average. SII started 200k km2 lower than MASIE and ended up with the same deficit. Note that the other years are not far from the 17-year average at year end.

The table below shows year-end ice extents in the various Arctic basins compared to the 17-year averages and some recent years.

Region 2023364 Day 364 2023-Ave. 2007364 2023-2007
 (0) Northern_Hemisphere 13335688 12974817  360871  13049737 285951 
 (1) Beaufort_Sea 1070966 1070352  614  1069711 1255 
 (2) Chukchi_Sea 966006 963344  2662  965971 35 
 (3) East_Siberian_Sea 1087137 1087133  1087120 17 
 (4) Laptev_Sea 897845 897841  897845
 (5) Kara_Sea 923106 880831  42275  871851 51255 
 (6) Barents_Sea 423772 415592  8179  334577 89194 
 (7) Greenland_Sea 739662 579776  159886  666135 73528 
 (8) Baffin_Bay_Gulf_of_St._Lawrence 911691 965051  -53360  1074827 -163136 
 (9) Canadian_Archipelago 854860 853421  1439  852556 2304 
 (10) Hudson_Bay 1165656 1234412  -68757  1260856 -95201 
 (11) Central_Arctic 3218074 3205662  12412  3199726 18348 
 (12) Bering_Sea 472476 391321  81155  373942 98534 
 (13) Baltic_Sea 44969 27442  17527  9972 34997 
 (14) Sea_of_Okhotsk 530117 377911  152206  371241 158876 

This year’s ice extent is 361k km2 or 2.8% above average.  Only Baffin Bay and Hudson have deficits to average, more than offset by surpluses elsewhere, espcially Greenland, Bering and Okhotsk seas. Many of the others are already maxed out.

Comparing Arctic Ice at End of Years

At  the bottom is a discussion of statistics on year-end Arctic Sea Ice extents.  The values are averages of the last five days of each year.  End of December is a neutral point in the melting-freezing cycle, midway between September minimum and March maximum extents.

Background from Previous Post Updated to Year-End 2023

Some years ago reading a thread on global warming at WUWT, I was struck by one person’s comment: “I’m an actuary with limited knowledge of climate metrics, but it seems to me if you want to understand temperature changes, you should analyze the changes, not the temperatures.” That rang bells for me, and I applied that insight in a series of Temperature Trend Analysis studies of surface station temperature records. Those posts are available under this heading. Climate Compilation Part I Temperatures

This post seeks to understand Arctic Sea Ice fluctuations using a similar approach: Focusing on the rates of extent changes rather than the usual study of the ice extents themselves. Fortunately, Sea Ice Index (SII) from NOAA provides a suitable dataset for this project. As many know, SII relies on satellite passive microwave sensors to produce charts of Arctic Ice extents going back to 1979.  The current Version 3 has become more closely aligned with MASIE, the modern form of Naval ice charting in support of Arctic navigation. The SII User Guide is here.

There are statistical analyses available, and the one of interest (table below) is called Sea Ice Index Rates of Change (here). As indicated by the title, this spreadsheet consists not of monthly extents, but changes of extents from the previous month. Specifically, a monthly value is calculated by subtracting the average of the last five days of the previous month from this month’s average of final five days. So the value presents the amount of ice gained or lost during the present month.

These monthly rates of change have been compiled into a baseline for the period 1980 to 2010, which shows the fluctuations of Arctic ice extents over the course of a calendar year. Below is a graph of those averages of monthly changes up to and including this year. Those familiar with Arctic Ice studies will not be surprised at the sine wave form. December end is a relatively neutral point in the cycle, midway between the September Minimum and March Maximum.

The graph makes evident the six spring/summer months of melting and the six autumn/winter months of freezing.  Note that June-August produce the bulk of losses, while October-December show the bulk of gains. Also the peak and valley months of March and September show very little change in extent from beginning to end.

The table of monthly data reveals the variability of ice extents over the last 4 decades.

The values in January show changes from the end of the previous December, and by summing twelve consecutive months we can calculate an annual rate of change for the years 1979 to 2023.

As many know, there has been a decline of Arctic ice extent over these 40 years, averaging 70k km2 per year. But year over year, the changes shift constantly between gains and losses, ranging up to +/- 500k km2.  Since 1989 the average yearend gain/loss is nearly zero, -0.033k km2 to be exact.

Moreover, it seems random as to which months are determinative for a given year. For example, much ado was printed about 2023 losing more ice than usual June through September. But then the final 3 months of 2023 more than made up for those summer losses, resulting in a sizeable gain for the year.

As it happens in this dataset, October has the highest rate of adding ice. The table below shows the variety of monthly rates in the record as anomalies from the 1980-2010 baseline. In this exhibit a red cell is a negative anomaly (less than baseline for that month) and blue is positive (higher than baseline).

Note that the  +/ –  rate anomalies are distributed all across the grid, sequences of different months in different years, with gains and losses offsetting one another.  As noted earlier,  in 2023 the outlier negative months were June through September where unusual amounts of ice were lost.  Then unusally strong gains in October and December resulted in a large annual gain, compared to the baseline. The bottom line presents the average anomalies for each month over the period 1979-2021.  Note the rates of gains and losses mostly offset, and the average of all months in the bottom right cell is virtually zero.

A final observation: The graph below shows the Yearend Arctic Ice Extents for the last 32 years.

Year-end Arctic ice extents (last 5 days of December) show three distinct regimes: 1988-1998, 1998-2010, 2010-2022. The average year-end extent 1989-2010 is 13.4M km2. In the last decade, 2011 was 13.0M km2, and six years later, 2017 was 12.3M km2. 2021 rose back to 13.06  2022 slipped back to 12.6M, and 2023 is back up to 13.0M. So for all the the fluctuations, the net is zero, or a gain of half a Wadham (0.5M) from 2010. Talk of an Arctic ice death spiral is fanciful.

These data show a noisy, highly variable natural phenomenon. Clearly, unpredictable factors are in play, principally water structure and circulation, atmospheric circulation regimes, and also incursions and storms. And in the longer view, today’s extents are not unusual.

 

 

Illustration by Eleanor Lutz shows Earth’s seasonal climate changes. If played in full screen, the four corners present views from top, bottom and sides. It is a visual representation of scientific datasets measuring Arctic ice extents.

 

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December 31, 2023 at 01:45PM

Judge Resurrects Zombie Kids’ Climate Case: Expect More Eating of Brains

Commentary from Jonathan Adler (The Volokh Conspiracy)

Adler wrote about the case last June.

This afternoon, Judge Aiken on the U.S. District Court for the District of Oregon revived  Juliana v. United States, aka the “Kids Climate Case,” by granting the plaintiffs’ motion to amend their complaint, some two years after the motion was filed.

This is a remarkable order because the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit previously ordered the case dismissed due to a lack of standing. The original Ninth Circuit panel ruling was in January 2020, and the court denied en banc rehearing in February 2021. The plaintiffs filed a motion to amend in March 2021, which was opposed by the Department of Justice on the grounds that “the mandate rule requires [the district] court to dismiss the case.” Despite the DOJ’s opposition, the district court further ordered a settlement conference, and whatever jurisdiction the district court may have retained over the case should have expired when the plaintiffs failed to petition for certiorari.

https://reason.com/volokh/2023/06/01/district-court-judge-revives-kids-climate-case/

Adlers article quotes the judge’s reasoning and it’s worth a read, however Adler concludes, emphasis mine:

The Ninth Circuit’s initial decision dismissing the Juliana case was likely the best outcome the plaintiffs could have hoped for, as it avoided substantive Supreme Court intervention (after the justices had indicated their concern about the case). By reviving the case, Judge Aiken is tempting fate—and risking a broader legal judgment that could preclude a broader array of climate-related suits.

https://reason.com/volokh/2023/06/01/district-court-judge-revives-kids-climate-case/

My take is that Judge Aiken is tempting the Supreme Court to smack down a whole array of Climate legal theories if the case makes it that far.

Expect breathless coverage congratulating them on their Climate Case and taking it to the man.

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December 31, 2023 at 12:53PM